AceTraderFx Jan 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.29
Despite the greenback’s rise to 109.09 on Tuesday, subsequent retreat to 107.77 yesterday suggests the first leg of correction from January’s 9-1/2 month trough at 104.79 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 107.52, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.12 and yield rebound early next week.
On the upside, only above 108.68 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 109.09, break would extend towards 109.50/60.
T.G.I.F., U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data starting with Dec core CPI, real weekly earnings, trade budget and Federal budget. Pay attention to core CPI and weekly earnings as these are the Fed’s inflation barometer, so if actual readings come in higher than forecast, usd will rise.
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.09
Despite the greenback’s rise to 109.09 last Tuesday, subsequent retreat to 107.77 Wednesday suggests the first leg of correction from January’s 9-1/2 month trough at 104.79 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 107.52, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.12 and yield rebound early next week.
On the upside, only above 108.68 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 109.09, break would extend towards 109.50/60.
Data to be released later today:
EU industrial production, and U.S. building permits, wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.64
The greenback’s rally from yesterday’s low at 107.99 to 108.75 today suggests pullback from last Tuesday’s high at 109.09 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 109.45/50 but over bought condition would keep price below 109.75 this week and yield correction later.
On the downside, only below 107.77 would indicate temporary low has been made, risk stronger retracement towards 107.50/52.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
France budget balance, CPI, Germany annual GDP, EU trade balance, UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit’
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, redbook, building permits, wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending.
AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.62
The greenback’s rally from Monday’s low at 107.99 to 108.76 yesterday suggests pullback from last Tuesday’s high at 109.09 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 109.45/50 but over bought condition would keep price below 109.75 this week and yield correction later.
On the downside, only below 107.77 would indicate temporary low has been made, risk stronger retracement towards 107.50/52.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input, PPI output, BBA mortgage approvals, DCLG house price index, and U.S. building permits, wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending, MBA mortgage application, import prices, export prices, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Fed’s Beige Book.
AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.76
Although the greenback has retreated after yesterday’s rise above previous resistance at 109.09 to 109.19 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 has resumed, upside bias is retained and above said resistance would extend towards 109.45,.
However, loss of momentum would keep price below 109.75, yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 108.34 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 108.14 but 107.99 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing price balance, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending, MBA mortgage application, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index and Canada ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.43
The greenback’s rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 109.39 yesterday on renewed U.S.-China trade optimism and intra-day break of this resistance to 109.46 signals upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 remains in progress and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 109.75, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.00 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 108.69 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 108.10/20.
Data to be released on Friday :
Swiss producer/import price, EU current account, UK retail sales.
Canada CPI and U.S. building permits, housing starts, wholesales inventories, retail sales, industrial production, capacity uitlization, manufacturing output, U. Mich. sentiment, new home sales, durable goods, durables ex-defense, durables ex-transport, factory orders, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, business inventories.
AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.61
Although dollar has retreated after Friday’s rally to a 2-week high at 109.88 in New York due to U.S./China trade optimism and range trading would be seen before recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 extend towards 110.10/15 but near term loss of momentum would cap price below 110.38.
On the downside, only below 109.09 would indicate temporary top made and risks weakness towards 108.69/76.
As U.S. market is closed for Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, expect trading activity to be quiet in N. American time zone.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.40
Although dollar’s intra-day retreat from 109.70 at Asian open on cross-buying in yen suggests recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top at Friday’s 2-1/2 week high at 109.88 and range trading would be seen, reckon 109.06/09 sup would hold and yield another rise but loss of momentum should cap price below 110.38.
On the downside, only below 109.06 would risk stronger retracement towards 108.94, then 108.69/74.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK claimant count, PSNB, PSNCR, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current condition, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
Canada manufacturing sales, wholesale sales, and U.S. building permits, wholesale inventories, retail sales, housing starts, existing home sales, business inventories, new home sales, durable goods, durables ex-defense, durables ex-transport, factory orders.
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.58
Dollar’s rally from Tuesday’s low at 109.15 to 109.80 in Asia today due to cross-selling in yen suggests pullback from last Friday’s 2-1/2 week high at 109.88 has ended and recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 would extend to 110.00/10 after consolidation.
On the downside, only below 109.33 would indicate temporary top made, risks re-test of 109.15, break, 109.07, then 108.70/80.
Data to be released later on Wednesday :
France business climate, Italy producer prices, UK CBI trends survey, EU consumer confidence.
Canada retail sales, and U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, building permits, wholesale inventories, retail sales, housing starts, business inventories, new home sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.65
Although the greenback has retreated after yesterday’s rise above last Friday’s high at 109.88 to 110.00 and minor consolidation is expected for 1-2 days, as this move signals erratic rise from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 has resumed, upside bias is retained and above 110.00 would bring stronger retracement of Medium Term decline towards 110.38/40.
On the downside, only below 109.15 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger correction towards 108.69 before prospect of rebound.
Data to be released later on Thursday :
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy trade balance, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. initial jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, leading indicator.
AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.43
Dollar’s intra-day fall subsequent break of previous sup at 109.40 sup to 109.27 at Asian open on active cross-buying in yen suggests recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top at last Wednesday’s 3-week high of 110.00, subsequent rebound would yield consolidation before prospect of another fall to 108.60 but loss of momentum should keep price above 108.34/37.
On the upside, only above 110.00 would risk gain towards 110.30/34 but 110.46/48 may hold.
U.S. economic calendar is pretty light with Chicago Fed National Activity index and Dallas Fed mfg business index being the only data due out in New York morning but traders may react to these data if actual readings are weaker then forecast.
AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: Jan 29, 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.25
The greenback’s fall to 109.17 yesterday and then lower to 109.13 in Asia today suggests decline from last week’s peak at 110.00 to retrace upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 has resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness towards 108.69, however, over sold condition should keep price well above support at 108.34 and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, only above 109.56/59 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain towards 109.80 but aforesaid top at 110.00 should remain intact.
Today is the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting, on the U.S. data front, we have Redbook sales, CaseShiller home price n consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: Jan 30, 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.32
Although dollar has rebounded after yesterday’s fall to 109.13, as 109.54 (New York) has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains for recent decline from last Wednesday’s 3-week high of 110.00 to resume and extend to 108.60/70 but loss of momentum should keep price above 108.34/37.
On the upside, only above 109.59 would indicate pullback has ended instead, risk gain to 109.90/95.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France’s Q4 GDP, Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence, import and export price, France’s consumer spending, Italy’s bus. n consumer confidence, then EU’s bus climate, eco. sentiment. industrial, services n consumer sentiment and lastly, Germany inflation data.
AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -US/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.68
Yesterday’s selloff from 109.74 to a 12-day low at 108.82 in New York after dovish FOMC statement, then intra-day break of said sup suggests recent decline from last Wednesday’s 3-week high at 110.00 remains in force and further weakness towards 108.30/40 would be seen but loss of momentum should keep price above 107.99 today.
On the upside, only above 109.07/13 would risk gain towards 109.50/54.
The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with weekly jobless claims, personal spending n income, core PCE, PCE n then Chicago PMI.
AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.92
Although the greenback has staged a rebound after yesterday’s resumption of decline from last week’s peak at 110.00 to 108.50 and minor consolidation would be seen, as this move confirms the upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 has made a temporary top there, downside is retained and below 108.50 would extend marginally. However, 107.99 should hold ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report release and yield correction.
On the upside, only above 109.54/59 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead and risk stronger retracement towards 109.74.
Data to be released later Friday:
Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, CPI, manufacturing PMI, France budget balance, Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, HICP, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.87
The greenback’s rise above Friday’s high at 109.57 on broad-based selling in yen confirms correction from last Wednesday’s peak at 110.00 has ended at 108.50 on Friday and re-test of aforesaid resistance is forthcoming, break would extend upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 towards 110.48/50 before prospect of a much-needed correction later.
On the downside, only below 109.13 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 108.50 before rebound occurs.
Following Friday’s blockbuster U.S. jobs data, we have ISM New York index and factory orders later today.
AceTraderFx Feb 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.75
Dollar’s sideways swings after Monday’s rally to a 1-month high at 110.16 are expected to continue and as long as 109.43 sup holds, another rise would be seen, above said res would extend upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 to 110.48 but loss of momentum should cap price below 110.82.
On the downside, only below 109.43 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.07/13, then possibly 108.73/78.
Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate,Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France industrial output, non-farm payrolls, Italy industrial output.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.01
Despite dollar’s sideways swings following retreat from last Monday’s 1-month high at 110.16 to 109.56 Wednesday, intra-day rise to 110.02 (Asia) suggests upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 would resume and head towards 110.48 but loss of momentum should cap price below 110.85/90.
On the downside, only below 109.56 would indicate temporary top made and risk stronger retracement towards 109.09/13.
Data out today:
Japan market holiday, Swiss CPI, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.55
Dollar’s rally and subsequent break of last Monday’s 110.16 high to a 5-week high of 110.46 yesterday, then intra-day gain to 110.65 in Asia suggests recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 remains in progress and above 110.82 res would extend rise towards 111.10 before prospect of retreat due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 110.09/16 would indicate temporary top is made and risk weakness to 109.76/80.
Data out on Tuesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, Japan tertiary industry index, machine tool orders, and U.S. JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Feb 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.75
Intra-day break of yesterday’s 6-week high at 110.65 suggests recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 remains in progress and further gain towards 111.10 would be seen but loss of momentum should cap price below 111.38/45 and yield correction.
Only below 110.16 would indicate temporary top made, risk weakness to 109.76/80 before prospect of rebound.
Data to release on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac consumer survey, Japan corp goods price, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision.
UK CPI, RPI, PPI input, PPI output, EU industrial production.
U.S. CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.