AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

#42

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 21 May 2015 08:07 GMT

USD/JPY - 121.00
Although dollar’s rally above daily resistance at 120.84 to 121.48 yesterday signals an ‘upside break’ of early 10-week long broad range of 122.03-118.33 has taken place, subsequent retreat following the release of FOMC minutes suggests 1-2 days of consolidation would be seen.
However, reckon 120.27 (previous resistance, now sup) would hold and bring another up move later.

Above 121.48 would extend gain to 121.67 and then towards 2015 peak at 122.03 (March).
On a failure to penetrate 122.03 and a daily close below 120.27 would indicate price would remain confined inside aforesaid 122.03-118.33 broad range and yield weakness towards 119.83/93 and then 119.40/50.

#43

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]22 May 2015[/B][I] 08:34 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 120.80[/B]
Although dollar’s rally above daily resistance at 120.84 to 121.49 Wednesday signals an ‘upside break’ of early 10-week long broad range of 122.03-118.33 has taken place, subsequent retreat to as low as 120.64 today suggests choppy consolidation would be seen.
However, reckon 120.27 (previous resistance, now sup) would hold and bring another up move later.

Above 121.49 would extend gain to 121.67 and then towards 2015 peak at 122.03 (March).
Only a failure to penetrate 122.03 and a daily close below 120.27 would indicate price would remain confined inside aforesaid broad range and yield weakness towards 119.83/93 and then 119.40/50.

#44

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]26 May 2015 [/B][I]09:34 GMT[/I]
[I]
USD/JPY - 122.75[/I]
Dollar’s intra-day rally above 2015’s 8-year peak at 122.03 signals long-term uptrend has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain towards 123.00/10, then 123.25/27.
However, loss of momentum would prevent steep rise beyond there and reckon resistance at 123.55 would remain intact today and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 122.03 would indicate a temporary top has been made and yield stronger retracement towards 121.78/80 before prospect of a rebound.

#45

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]27 May 2015[/B] [I]08:08 GMT
[/I]
[B]USD/JPY - 123.01[/B]
Dollar’s rally to a fresh near 8-year peak at 123.33 on Tuesday signals long-term uptrend from 2011 record low at 75.32 has resumed and further gain to 124.14 (2007 top) is envisaged after consolidation
However, loss of momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 122.03 (previous 2015 peak in March, now support) would indicate a temporary top is made instead and shift risk to downside for a retracement to 121.45 (Monday’s low).

#46

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK [/B]
Update Time:[B] 28 May 2015 [/B][I]08:03 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.63[/B]
Despite dollar’s intra-day brief rally to a fresh 12-1/2-year peak at 124.29 in Asia, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading with downside bias would be seen but only a daily close below 123.33 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top has been made and yield retracement to 122.78.

On the upside, above 124.29 would extend long term uptrend from 2011 record low at 75.32 towards 124.66 and then 125.10/20 next week.

#47

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK [/B]
Update Time: [B]29 May 2015[/B] [I] 08:17 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.75[/B]
Despite dollar’s rally to a fresh 12-1/2-year peak at 124.49 on Thursday, subsequent retreat to 123.62 in New York and then 1-pip fall to 123.61 in Asia today suggests choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen. However, only a daily close below 123.33 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top has been made and yield retracement to 122.78 next week.

On the upside, above 124.46 would extend long term uptrend from 2011 record low at 75.32 to 124.66 but loss of momentum should cap price below 125.00 level today.

#48

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK [/B]
Update Time: [B]01 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:04 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 124.13[/B]
Dollar’s rebound after retreating from last Thursday’s fresh 12-1/2 year trough at 124.46 to 123.61 Friday suggests upside bias remains for long-term uptrend from 2011 record low at 75.32 to resume after consolidation, above 124.46 would extend gain to 124.66 and then 125.00 later but loss of momentum should cap price below 125.74 (Dec 2002 top) this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 123.33 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top is made and shift risk to downside for a minor correction towards 122.78.

#49

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time:[B] 05 Jun 2015[/B] [I] 08:00 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 124.70[/B]
Although dollar’s rebound from yesterday’s low at 123.79 suggests further choppy trading inside this week’s broad range of 125.07-123.75 would continue and with mild upside bias, break of said 12-1/2 year peak at 125.07 needed to confirm long-term uptrend has resumed and bring further gain to next upside target at 125.74 (2002 Dec top).

On the downside, only below 123.61 would confirm a temporary top is made and shift risk to downside for weakness to 123.33 and then 122.78 next week.

#50

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time:[B] 08 Jun 2015 [/B] [I]08:21 GMT[/I]
[B]
USD/JPY - 125.45[/B]
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Friday’s fresh near 13-year peak at 125.86 and then intra-day break of 125.07 (previous resistance and subsequent support) to 125.01 in European morning, only a daily close below 124.68 would confirm long-term uptrend has made a temporary top there and bring retracement to 124.23 and then 123.75 before prospect of a rebound.

Above 125.86 would signal long-term uptrend from 2011 record low at 75.32 has once again resumed and extend gain to 126.40/50 and then 127.00 before correction occurs due to loss of momentum.

#51

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]11 Jun 2015[/B] [I]07:58 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.50[/B]
Dollar’s rebound after holding above Wednesday’s fresh 2-week trough at 124.47 and then breach of 123.35 (reaction high from 124.47) signals decline from last Friday’s fresh near 13-year peak at 125.86 has made a temporary low there and stronger retracement towards 123.86 (previous support) may be seen, however, reckon 124.10/20 would cap upside and bring another sell off later.

Below 124.47 would indicate aforesaid fall to retrace long-term uptrend has resumed and yield further weakness to 122.03 (March top) and then 121.20/30 next week.

#52

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK [/B]
Update Time: [B]12 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:14 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.80[/B]
Despite dollar’s sharp retreat on long-liquation after a brief rally to 124.19 in New York on Thursday following the release of ‘anticipated’ upbeat U.S. retail sales data, as 123.26 has contained such pullback, further choppy trading above Wednesday’s 2-week trough at 122.47 would be seen and with upside bias remains.
However, only a daily close above 124.57/62 would indicate correction from last Friday’s fresh near 13-year peak at 125.86 has ended and bring gain towards 125.00 early next week.

On the downside, below 123.26 would prolong consolidation but 122.47 low should remain intact.

#53

[B] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK [/B]
Update Time: [B]18 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:05 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 122.83[/B]
Dollar’s intra-day sell off below 123.10 (post FOMC-low) signals correction from last Wednesday’s 2-week trough at 122.47 has ended yesterday at 124.46 and consolidation with downside bias remains, break would signal erratic decline from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 has resumed and extend weakness towards 122.05 (March’s top) later.

Above 123.60 would prolong choppy trading but resistance at 124.46 should remain intact.

#54

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]19 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:16 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.15[/B]
Although dollar’s sell off from 124.46 (post-FOMC high on Wednesday) to 122.48 yesterday signals correction from last Wednesday’s 2-week trough at 122.47 has ended there, subsequent rebound suggests choppy sideways trading would be seen but as long as said resistance holds.
Downside bias remains for erratic decline from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 to retrace long-term uptrend to resume and extend weakness towards 122.03 (March’s top) later.

Above 124.46 would bring stronger retracement but 125.00 (previous support, now resistance) should remain intact.

#55

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]22 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:40 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.09[/B]
Although dollar’s sell off from 124.46 (post-FOMC high on Wednesday) to 122.48 Thursday signals correction from last Wednesday’s 2-week trough at 122.47 has ended there.
Subsequent rebound suggests choppy sideways trading would be seen but as long as said resistance holds, downside bias remains for erratic decline from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 to retrace long-term uptrend to resume and extend weakness towards 122.03 (March’s top) later.

Above 124.46 would bring stronger retracement but 125.00 (previous support, now resistance) should remain intact.

#56

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]23 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:15 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.68[/B]
Dollar’s rally from Monday’s low at 122.56 (Asia) to as high as 123.78 today suggests further choppy trading inside recent established broad range of 122.47-124.46 would continue and with mild upside bias.
However, only a break of said resistance would bring stronger retracement of decline from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 to 124.62 and possibly towards 125.00 (previous support, now resistance) before retreat occurs.

On the downside, below 122.47 needed to signal stronger retracement of recent uptrend is underway and yield weakness to 122.03 and then 121.20/30.

#57

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]25 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:09 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.75[/B]
Despite dollar’s near term rise from last Thursday’s low at 122.48 to as high as 124.38 on Wednesday, subsequent retreat suggests further choppy trading inside recent established broad range of 122.47-124.46 would continue and with mild downside bias, however, reckon 122.98/02 would contain weakness and yield rebound later.

On the upside, a break of 124.46 would bring stronger retracement of decline from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 to 124.62 and then possibly towards 125.00 (previous support, now resistance).

#59

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]30 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:08 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 122.23[/B]
Dollar’s intra-day breach of Monday’s fresh 1-month trough at 122.10 to 122.05 in European morning signals decline from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 has resumed and further weakness to 121.40/50 and then 121.00/10 would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum should keep price above 120.84 (previous res, now support) and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only a move back above 123.19/23 would signal a low has been made and yield subsequent gain to 123.99.

#60

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]03 Jul 2015[/B] [I]08:12 GM[/I]T

[B]USD/JPY - 123.10[/B]
Dollar’s retreat after rallying from Tuesday’s fresh 1-month trough at 121.94 to as high as 123.75 yesterday suggests the first leg of correction has ended there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.
However, reckon price would keep above 122.10 support and bring rebound later.

On the upside, only a move back above 123.75 would signal decline from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 is still being retraced and yield another corrective up move to 123.99 and then 124.40/50 next week.

#61

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]10 Jul 2015[/B] [I]08:05 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 122.16[/B]
Despite dollar’s sell-off to a fresh 7-week trough at 120.42 (Wednesday) earlier this week, subsequent rebound and then yesterday’s breach of 121.70 (Tuesday low, then resistance) signals decline from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 has made a temporary low there and stronger retracement towards 122.88/93 is likely.
However, reckon 123.75/78 (July 2 high and 61.8% r of 125.86-120.42) would cap upside and bring another sell-off later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 121.20 would indicate correction over and yield re-test of 120.42, break would extend aforesaid fall to retrace long-term uptrend to 120.00 and then 119.60/70.

#62

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK [/B]
Update Time: [B]13 Jul 2015[/B] [I]08:13 GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 123.35[/B]
Dollar’s intra-day rally above 122.88 (Friday high, now support) signals first leg of correction from June’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 has ended at last Wednesday’s 7-week trough at 120.42, stronger gain to 123.75 may be seen.
However, reckon price would falter below 124.00 today and yield another strong retreat later.

On the downside, a daily close below 122.88 would indicate a top is made and bring weakness towards 122.40/50 but 122.05 (intra-day low in New Zealand) should hold today.