AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.88
Yesterday’s cross-inspired decline to 110.63 in New York due to safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from 109.12 has made a top at Wednesday’s 3-1/2 week peak of 110.44 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 109.42, however, reckon 109.12 should remain intact.
Only above 110.15 indicates pullback is over, then risk is seen for subsequent re-test of 110.44 later next week.
T.G.I.F. after a roller-coaster week (dlr rose on Mon from 109.63 to 110.44 yesterday and only to fall back to exactly where it started !), U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to PPI n core PPI at 12:30GMT.
We also have Cleveland Fed President Mester speaking at 13:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.12
Despite last Thursday’s cross-inspired decline to 110.63 in New York due to safe-haven yen buying, subsequent rebound to 109.99 Friday and intra-day break above there suggests the pullback from Wednesday’s peak at 110.44 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend recent upmove from 109.12 towards 110.70/80.
On the downside, only below 109.80 would indicate a temporary top has been made instead and risk weakness towards 109.63 later this week.
Data to be released today:
New Zealand food price index, Japan corporate goods price.
Germany wholesale price index.
U.S. Federal budget on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.03
Despite last Thursday’s cross-inspired decline to 110.63 in New York due to safe-haven yen buying, subsequent rebound to 109.99 Friday and intra-day break above there suggests the pullback from Wednesday’s peak at 110.44 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend recent upmove from 109.12 towards 110.70/80.
On the downside, only below 109.80 would indicate a temporary top has been made instead and risk weakness towards 109.63 later this week.
Market is awaiting the most important U.S. eco. data at 12:30GMT today, the CPI, pay attention to y/y number for Aug, estimate is 5.3% vs prev. reading of 5.4%, a higher-than-expected figure to raise expectation of Fed’s tapering at next FOMC meeting on Sep 21-22 meeting n would send usd higher across the board n the flip side may happen if actual reading is lower then 5.0%.
AceTraderFx Sept 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.35
Dollar’s selloff from Tuesday’s high at 110.15 to 109.53 due to the release of soft U.S. inflation data suggests early upmove from 109.12 has ended at 110.44 in Sep and intra-day break below there suggests bearishness is retained for a re-test of aforesaid support, break would extend decline from August’s peak at 110.79 marginally, however, support at 108.73 should remain intact and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 109.60/63 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.99/00, then 110.15/20 later.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to industrial production, capacity utilization n mfg output at 13:15GMT, if actual readings are weaker than forecast, then expect US yields to fall further n more yen buying vs usd, euro n sterling.
AceTraderFx Sept 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.34
Dollar’s selloff from Tuesday’s high at 110.15 to 109.53 due to the release of soft U.S. inflation data suggests early upmove from 109.12 has ended at 110.44 in Sep and intra-day break below there suggests bearishness is retained for a re-test of aforesaid support, break would extend decline from August’s peak at 110.79 marginally, however, support at 108.73 should remain intact and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 109.60/63 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.99/00, then 110.15/20 later.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details n today’s market focus following Tuesday’s CPI is August retail sales, a stronger-than-expected number would spur usd buying.
AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.93
Dollar’s selloff from Tuesday’s high at 110.15 to 109.53 due to the release of soft U.S. inflation data suggests early upmove from 109.12 has ended at 110.44 in Sep and intra-day break below there suggests bearishness is retained for a re-test of aforesaid support, break would extend decline from August’s peak at 110.79 marginally, however, support at 108.73 should remain intact and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 109.60/63 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.99/00, then 110.15/20 later.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI.
U.K. retail sales, EU current account, construction output, HICP.
U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.71
Dollar’s selloff from Tuesday’s high at 110.15 to 109.53 due to the release of soft U.S. inflation data suggests early upmove from 109.12 has ended at 110.44 in Sep and intra-day break below there suggests bearishness is retained for a re-test of aforesaid support, break would extend decline from August’s peak at 110.79 marginally, however, support at 108.73 should remain intact and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 109.60/63 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.99/00, then 110.15/20 later.
Data to be released later:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, Japan market holiday, China market holiday.
U.K. Rightmove house price , Germany producer prices.
U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.64
Although dollar’s intra-day rebound after yesterday’s selloff from 110.03 to 109.33 in tandem with U.S. yields and active safe-haven buying in jpy suggests choppy trading above last week’s bottom at 109.12 would continue, as long as 109.82 holds, daily bearishness remains and below 109.12 would extend recent decline towards support at 108.73.
On the upside, only above Friday’s high at 110.07 would risk stronger retracement to 110.25/30 but resistance at 110.44 should remain intact.
The Fed starts its 2-day FOMC meeting today and on the data front, we have current account, building permits n housing starts. Traders will continue to take cue from global stock performance n movement in U.S. yields.
AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.91
Yesterday’s rally from 109.13 (Asia) to 109.89 after Fed’s hawkish tilt, then intra-day cross-inspired break above there suggests re-test of 110.07 would be seen, break signals correction from September’s 110.44 peak has ended and yields further gain to 110.15.
Only below 109.60/64 ‘prolongs’ broad sideways swings and may yield weakness to 109.42, break, 109.12/13 later.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims, then Markit services n mfg PMIs, a better-than-expected reading will spur more usd buying.
AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.40
Dollar’s intra-day cross-inspired break of previous September’s 110.44 high suggests re-test of August’s 110.79 top would be seen after consolidation, above there would encourage for further headway towards 111.11 early next week before retreat due to overbought condition.
Only below 110.07 (prev. res, now sup) signals temporary top is made, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 109.70.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Japan CPI, manufacturing PMI.
UK consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions.
Canada budget balance and U.S. building permits, new home sales.
AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.80
Dollar’s intra-day cross-inspired break of previous September’s 110.44 high suggests re-test of August’s 110.79 top would be seen after consolidation, above there would encourage for further headway towards 111.11 early next week before retreat due to overbought condition.
Only below 110.07 (prev. res, now sup) signals temporary top is made, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 109.70.
Data to be released today:
France producer prices, Italy trade balance non-EU.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense and Dallas Fed manufacturing index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.30
Dollar’s intra-day cross-inspired break of previous Sep’s 110.44 high suggests re-test of Aug’s 110.79 top would be seen after consolidation, above there would encourage for further headway towards 111.11 early next week before retreat due to overbought condition.
Only below 110.07 (prev. res, now sup) signals temporary top is made, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 109.70.
U.S. will later release consumer confidence n Richmond Fed mfg index. Pay attention to testimony of Fed chief J.Powell when he starts his 2-day appearance before the Senate.
As reported earlier, in remarks to be delivered Tuesday, cautioned Washington legislators that the causes of the recent rise in inflation may last longer than anticipated. We also have other Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session (please refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Sept 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.23
Although dollar’s retreat from intra-day 1-1/2 year peak at 111.68 suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and consolidation is in store, as long as 111.06 holds, gain to 111.90/00 is likely but loss of momentum would cap price below 112.22.
Only a daily close below 111.06 risks stronger retracement towards 110.79 before prospect of rebound tomorrow.
U.S. will release second-tier eco. data MBA mortgage applications n pending home sales. Fed Chair will appear before the U.S. Senate on his second day of 2-day testimony on Capital Hill, we also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details
AceTraderFx Sept 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Sept 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.86
Although dollar’s retreat from intra-day 1-1/2 year peak at 112.05 suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and consolidation is in store, as long as 111.22 holds, daily bullishness remains for Medium Term upmove to resume and head towards 112.50/55, loss of momentum would cap price below 112.70/80 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
Only a daily close below 111.06 risks stronger retracement towards 110.79 before prospect of rebound tomorrow.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand building permits, NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Japan industrial output, retail sales, construction orders, housing starts, China NBS manufacturing PMI, Caixin manufacturing PMI, Australia building permits.
Germany import prices, France consumer spending, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, U.K. GDP, current account, EU unemployment rate.
U.S. GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and Chicago PMI.
AceTraderFx Oct 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Oct 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.19
Despite the greenback’s fall from last Thursday’s fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.88 in New Zealand today, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy suggests the first leg of correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 111.48, reckon 111.70/80 would remain intact and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 110.88 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.
Data to be released today :
China Market Holiday.
Swiss CPI, retail sales, EU Sentix index.
Canada building permits, U.S. durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders and durables ex-transport on Monday.
AceTraderFx Oct 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Oct 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.57
Despite the greenback’s fall from last Thursday’s fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.83 in New York on Monday, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy suggests the first leg of correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 111.81, reckon 111.95/00 would remain intact and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 110.88 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.
On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications n then ADP private employment change, a stronger-than-expected read will push the greenback higher. We also have Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) speaking at 13:00GMT and then 15:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Oct 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.34
Despite the greenback’s fall from last Thursday’s fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.83 in New York on Monday, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy suggests the first leg of correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 111.81, reckon 111.95/00 would remain intact and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 110.88 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.
U.S. will later release weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims.
We also have New York Fed President William and Cleveland Fed President Mester scheduled to speak at 12:40GMT and 15:45GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Oct 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.95
Despite the greenback’s fall from last Thursday’s fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.83 in New York on Monday, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy to 111.99 today confirms the correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for a re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would extend Medium Term upmove towards 112.50/60 before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 111.21 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan all household spending, current account, trade balance, Eco watchers outlook, Eco watchers current, China caixin services PMI.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
U.S. Non-Farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and housing starts.
AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Oct 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 112.89
Dollar’s intra-day impressive rally above Friday’s post-NFP New York high at 112.25 to a 2-1/2 year peak at 112.84 on active cross-selling in yen suggests price would head to 113.25/35, overbought condition should cap dollar below 113.50.
Only a daily close below 112.25 (now sup) signals temporary top is in place and may risk stronger retracement to 112.90/00.
Data to be released today:
Japan machine tool orders.
U.K. NIESR GDP estimate, Italy industrial output.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada Market Holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Oct 2021 09:15GMT
USD/JPY - 113.36
The greenback’s rise to a fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 113.49 in Asian morning due partly to active cross-selling in jpy suggests Medium Term upmove remains in progress and further gain towards 113.78/80 would be seen after consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 114.00/10 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 112.72 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.10/20.
On the data front, U.S. will release second-tier JOLTS job openings. We have Fed’s Clarida (voter) n Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) scheduled to speak at 15:15GMT n 16:30GMT respectively.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major