AceTraderFx July 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 137.73
Dollar’s decline from Thursday’s fresh 24-year peak at 139.39 to as low as 137.90 in New York yesterday on broad-based usd’s weakness due to return on risk sentiment and intra-day break there suggests long-overdue correction has taken place and further weakness to 137.50/55 cannot be ruled out before prospect of a strong rebound later.
On the upside, a daily close above 138.44 needed to revive bullishness for stronger gain to 138.80/90, break, 139.12, 139.39.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.K. Rightmove house price, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, EU construction output, HICP.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook and New Zealand GDT price.
AceTraderFx July 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 138.18
Although dollar’s strong retreat from last Thursday’s fresh 24-year top of 139.39 in tandem with U.S. yields to as low as 137.39 yesterday suggests temporary top is made, subsequent bounce to 138.24 (New York) signals 1st leg of correction over and above 138.44 would yield stronger gain to 138.70/80 but 139.12 should hold.
On the downside, only a daily close below 137.70/75 would risk stronger retracement of recent upmove towards 137.39, 137.11.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, Germany producer prices, EU current account, consumer confidence.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, existing home sales, Canada CPI and producer prices.
AceTraderFx July 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 138.60
Despite the greenback’s resumption of decline from July’s fresh 24-year peak at 139.39 to 137.39 on Tuesday, intra-day strong bounce from 138.00 in Asia as Bank of Japan maintained its easy policy signals a temporary low has possibly been made there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 138.80/90, reckon 139.12 may remain intact.
On the downside, only below 137.90/91 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 137.50/60.
Data to be released on Thursday :
U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, France business climate, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, Canada new housing price index and U.S. leading index.
AceTraderFx July 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 137.62
Despite dollar’s selloff from 138.87 and break of 137.39 support to as low as 137.31 in New York Thursday in tandem with US yields, then intra-day break there to 137.03 in Asia, intra-day rally suggests fall from July’s fresh 24-year peak at 139.39 has made a low and above 138.00 would yield stronger gain to 138.35/39, 138.87.
On the downside, only a daily close below 137.03 would revive bearishness for one more fall to 136.70/75.
Data to be released on Friday:
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan nationwide CPI, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, Jibun bank services PMI, France S n P manufacturing PMI, S n P global services PMI, Germany S n P manufacturing PMI, S n P global services PMI, EU S n P manufacturing PMI, S n P global services PMI, U.K. S n P manufacturing PMI, S n P global services PMI.
Canada retail sales, U.S. S n P manufacturing PMI and S n P global services PMI.
AceTraderFx July 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 136.38
Dollar’s selloff in tandem with U.S. yields on Friday after rebound from 137.03 (AUS) to 137.95 and firm break of 137.03 suggests
erratic fall from July’s 24-year peak at 139.39 would head to 135.45, however, oversold condition would keep price above 135.00/10 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 136.61 would indicate aforesaid correction ended and risk stronger gain to 137.00/03.
Data to be released later today:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, U.K. CBI trends orders, CBI business optimism.
U.S. national activity and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 136.53
Although dollar’s strong rebound from Friday’s 2-week bottom at 135.58 to as high as 136.78 ahead of New York open Monday on cross-selling in yen suggests decline from July’s 24-year peak at 139.39 has made a temporary low, subsequent retreat has retained bearishness and below 135.85/90 would head back towards 135.58 again.
On the upside, only a daily close above 137.03 would signal 1st leg of correction over and risk stronger gain to 137.45/50
Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.K. CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permits, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, new homes sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx July 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 136.79
Although dollar’s erratic rise from Friday’s 2-week bottom at 135.58 to 136.97 in New York and intra-day break there suggests 1st leg of correction from July’s fresh 24-year peak at 139.39 has ended, near term overbought condition would prevent strong gain and yield decline, below 136.29 would head to 135.80/90 before bounce.
On the upside, only a daily close above 137.39 would indicate aforesaid correction ended and risk stronger gain to 137.80/90 later.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
U.K. BRC shop price index, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consume confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, pending home sales and Fed interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 135.42
Dollar’s selloff on Wednesday from 137.46 to 136.33 in post -FOMC New York due to Fed Powell’s less hawkish comments, then today’s break of last Friday’s 135.58 low to 135.11 confirms fall from July’s fresh 24-year peak at 135.39 has resumed and would head towards 134.96 later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 136.05 would indicate aforesaid correction ended and yield stronger gain towards 136.33, break, 136.63.
Data to be released on Thursday:
France producer prices, Italy industrial sales, trade balance, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer sentiment, Germany CPI.
US GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing and Canada average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx July 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 July 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 132.81
Dollar’s selloff partly in tandem with US yields and negative US GDP as well as market chatter of heavy unwinding of long usd positions to a 5-week 134.21 in New York yesterday, then intra-day sharp drop to 132.51 in European morning suggests decline from July’s 24-year 139.39 peak may yield 132.35, 131.50.
On the upside, only a daily close above 133.71 would signal a temporary low is in place and stronger retracement to 134.10/20 would be seen next week.
Data to be released on Friday:
France consumer spending, GDP, Germany GDP, import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, UK nationwide house price, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicator, France CPI, Italy GDP, CPI, EU HICP.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada GDP and budget balance.
AceTraderFx Aug 01: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 132.44
Despite dollar’s intra-day cross-inspired selloff from 133.56 in Australia and then brief break of Friday’s 132.51 bottom to a fresh 7-week trough of 132.08, subsequent short covering rise to 132.75 in Asia would yield choppy trading before down, reckon 131.50 should contain downside and yield rebound.
On the downside, only a daily close above 132.75 would indicate a temporary bottom made and yield stronger retracement to 133.20/25, break, 133.51/56.
Data to be released today :
Germany retail sales, S&P manufacturing PMI, Swiss Market Holiday, France S&P manufacturing PMI, EU S&P manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, Italy S&P manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate.
U.K. S&P manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI and Canada market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 130.81
Despite dollar’s initial resumption of recent fall from July’s 24-year peak at 139.39 to a fresh 7-week trough of 130.41, intra-day rebound on usd’s safe-haven bid due to US/China tension may head back to 131.60, reckon 132.00 would hold and yield another decline later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 130.41 would risk one more fall to 130.00/10.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.K. Nationwide house price, Swiss consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, Canada S&P manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 133.21
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline from Jul’s 24-year peak of 139.39 to a fresh 7-week trough of 130.41 (Asia) yesterday, subsequent rally in New York on hawkish comments from Fed officials to 133.89 in Asia signals 1st leg of correction possibly over and would head towards 134.44.
On the downside, only below 132.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery over and risk re-test of 132.29, break, 131.60/65.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, S&P Global services PMI, Swiss CPI, France budget balance, S&P Global services PMI, Italy S&P Global services PMI, retail sales, EU S&P Global services PMI, producer prices, retail sales, UK S&P Global services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, S&P Global services PMI, durable goods, durable ex-defense, durable ex-transport, factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Aug 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 134.23
Despite resumption of recent decline from July’s 24 -year peak of 139.39 to a fresh 7-week trough of 130.41 (Tuesday), subsequent rally in tandem with US yields to 134.54 in New York yesterday suggests low is made and above 134.54 would encourage for stronger retracement to 134.90.
On the downside, only a daily close below 132.35/40 may indicate aforesaid recovery over and risk stronger retracement to 132.88/91.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany industrial orders, U.K. S&P construction PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchases, BOE MPC rate hike, BOE MPC rate unchanged, BOE MPC rate cut.
U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports and imports.
AceTraderFx Aug 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 133.28
Dollar’s rally from Monday’s fresh 7-week trough of 130.41 to 134.54 (Wednesday) signals recent fall from July’s 24-year peak at 139.39 has made a low there and despite cross-inspired decline to 132.53 today, rebound to 133.47 ahead of European open and present retreat would yield choppy sideways swings, below 133.00/05 may head back towards 132.53, then 132.29.
On the upside, a daily close above 133.47 would revive bullishness for stronger gain towards 133.79, break, 134.30/40 later.
Data to be released on Friday:
UK Halifax housing prices, France current account, trade balance, industrial output, imports, exports, non-farm payrolls, Italy industrial output.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Aug 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 135.11
Dollar’s jump on robust U.S. NFP Friday and then break of 134.54 (Wed top) to 135.49 in New York signals correction from July’s 24-year peak at 139.39 has possibly ended at 130.41 (Tuesday) and further gain to 135.75 is envisaged, reckon 135.96 should cap upside and yield correction.
On the downside, only a daily close below 134.54 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement towards 134.17, break, 133.89/94
Data to be released today :
Swiss unemployment and EU Sentix index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 134.88
Dollar’s jump on blowout U.S. NFP Friday to 135.49, then to 135.57 Monday signals correction from July’s 24-year peak at 139.39 has possibly ended at 130.41 (Tuesday), despite retreat to 134.37 in New York in tandem with U.S. yields, subsequent rebound has retained upside bias, above 135.57 would yield stronger gain to 135.85/95.
On the downside, only a daily close below 134.37 would risk retracement to 134.00/05.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.K. BRC retail sales.
U.S. labor costs, productivity and redbook retail sales.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 134.99
Dollar’s rally from August’s 7-week trough of 130.41 to 135.57 Monday signals correction from July’s 24-year peak at 139.39 has possibly ended and as 134.37 has contained retreat, upside bias remains but above 135.57 is needed to extend gain towards 135.96
On the downside, only a daily close below 134.37 would risk weakness to 134.00/05 later.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany CPI, Italy CPI, U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI, wholesale inventories and Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Aug 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 132.57
Although dollar’s impressive rise from August’s 7-week trough at 130.41 to as high as 135.57 (Mon) signals correction from July’s 24-year 139.39 peak has ended, yesterday’s selloff below 134.37 support to 132.04 on soft US yields signals choppy swings may continue and below 132.62 would head towards 132.04 later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 133.47 would suggest temporary low and risk stronger gain to 133.80/90.
Data to be released on Thursday:
U.K. RICS housing price balance, Japan market holiday, Australia consumer inflation experience, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and PPI.
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 133.21
Although dollar’s impressive rise from August’s 7-week trough at 130.41 to as high as 135.57 (Monday) signals correction from Jul’s 24-year 139.39 peak has ended, yesterday’s selloff below 134.37 support to 132.04 on soft US yields signals choppy swings may continue and below 132.62 would head towards 132.04 later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 133.47 would suggest temporary low and risk stronger gain to 133.80/90.
Data to be released on Friday :
France ILO unemployment rate, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, France CPI, Italy trade balance, EU industrial production, Germany current account.
U.S. import prices, export prices and University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Aug 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Aug 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 133.43
Although dollar’s cross-inspired fall from 135.57 last Mon to as low as 131.74 (Thursday) suggests early strong rise from August’s 7-week trough at 130.41 has made a top, subsequent gain to 133.89 Fri and then decline to 132.92 would yield further sideways swings but below 132.62 needed to yield weakness towards 132.04, reckon 131.74 should hold on 1st testing.
On the upside, a daily close above 133.59 (AUS) would revive bullishness for stronger gain towards 133.89, 134.37/42.
Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price, Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization, Germany wholesales price index, France market holiday, Italy market holiday, Swiss producer/import price.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, NAHJB housing market index, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesale trades on Monday.