AceTraderFx July 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jul 2017 09:02 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.14
The greenback’s fall below last Friday’s low at 112.27 to 111.69 yesterday signals decline from July’s near 4-month peak at 114.49 remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 111.31 (50% retracement of rise from 108.13).
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 110.95 this week and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, only above 112.87 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger gain to 113.58, then 113.73.
U.S. will later release mortgage applications, building permits n housing starts, if these housing data come in weaker than street forecast, then usd will be sold again b4 prospect of another recovery.
AceTraderFx July 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jul 2017 09:08 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.28
The greenback’s fall below last Friday’s low at 112.27 to 111.69 yesterday signals decline from July’s near 4-month peak at 114.49 remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 111.31 (50% retracement of rise from 108.13).
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 110.95 this week and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, only above 112.87 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger gain to 113.58, then 113.73.
Later in the day, U.S. will release weekly initial jobless claims. Philly Fed survey and then leading indicators.
AceTraderFx July 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jul 2017 09:33 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.28
The greenback’s intra-day fall below last Friday’s low at 111.02 to 110.64 yesterday signals decline from July’s near 4-month peak at 114.49 remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 110.56 (61.8% retracement of rise from 108.13).
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 109.63 this week and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, only above 112.42 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger gain to 112.87, then 113.58.
The FOMC will start its 2-day meeting today and as no press conference is scheduled, market wide expects it to be a non-event, so dlr is unlikely to make further upside gain.
Pay attention to release of a slew of U.S. data later in the day starting with Redbook retail sales, CS home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed mfg index.
AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jul 2017 09:07 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.10
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after Wednesday’s selloff from a New York high at 112.20 to 110.78 in Asia yesterday on the back of yesterday’s slightly dovish Federal Reserve monetary policy statement and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recovery from Monday’s low at 110.64 has ended there, downside bias remains for decline from July’s peak at 114.49 to resume and yield re-test of said support, break, 110.20/24 later.
On the upside, only above 111.72 (previous support) would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 112.08, then 112.20 again.
On the eco. data front, France will release prel. GDP, CPI n consumer spending, then EU will release consumer confidence, business climate, eco. n industrial sentiment n last but least, at 12:00GMT, Germany will release CPI n HICP data.
Pay attention to release of key U.S. prel. Q2 GDP, PCE n employment cost at 12:30GMT, then University of Michigan July’s consumer confidence. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (voter) will deliver at speech at townhall event at 17:20GMT.
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AceTraderFx Aug 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Aug 2017 09:35 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.24
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after Wedesday’s selloff from a New York high at 112.20 to 110.78 in Asia yesterday on the back of yesterday’s slightly dovish Federal Reserve monetary policy statement and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recovery from Monday’s low at 110.64 has ended there.
Downside bias remains for decline from July’s peak at 114.49 to resume and yield re-test of said support, break, 110.20/24 later.
On the upside, only above 111.72 (previous support) would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 112.08, then 112.20 again.
Pay attention release of a slew of U.S. data in the day starting with June personal spending, personal income personal consumption expenditure, Redbook sales, July Markit mfg PMI, ISM mfg PMI and June construction spending.
If July PMIs come in weaker than forecast, expect another round of usd selling.
AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Aug 2017 09:01 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.81
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after Wednesday’s selloff from a New York high at 112.20 to 110.78 in Asia yesterday on the back of yesterday’s slightly dovish Federal Reserve monetary policy statement and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recovery from Monday’s low at 110.64 has ended there, downside bias remains for decline from July’s peak at 114.49 to resume and yield re-test of said support, break, 110.20/24 later.
On the upside, only above 111.72 (previous support) would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 112.08, then 112.20 again.
Data to be released later on Wednesday:
U.K. BRC shop price index, Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, EU Non-monetary policy ECB meeting, PPI, U.K. Markit construction PMI, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, ISM NY index.
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AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Aug 2017 09:12 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.71
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after Wednesday’s selloff from a New York high at 112.20 to 110.78 in Asia yesterday on the back of yesterday’s slightly dovish Federal Reserve monetary policy statement and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recovery from Monday’s low at 110.64 has ended there.
Downside bias remains for decline from July’s peak at 114.49 to resume and yield re-test of said support, break, 110.20/24 later.
On the upside, only above 111.72 (previous support) would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 112.08, then 112.20 again.
AceTraderFx Aug 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Aug 2017 09:45GMT
USD/JPY - 110.09
Although price has recovered after intra-day marginal break of yesterday’s 6-week trough at 109.87 to 109.85 in Australia and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of today’s non-farm payrolls release, as said move signals decline from July’s peak at 114.49 has resumed, downside bias remains and below said support would extend fall to 109.50/60.
However, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 109.27.
On the upside, only above 110.59 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.77 but resistance at 110.98 would remain intact and yield retreat later.
U.S. will release the blockbuster NFP (forecast for July is 183K increase in jobs vs previous reading of 222k) at 12:30GMT, traders will also look at average hourly earnings (MoM) for inflation outlook, unemployment rate, trade balancr, then later Dallas Fed PCE.
AceTraderFx Aug 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Aug 2017 10:00 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.79
Although price has recovered after intra-day marginal break of yesterday’s 6-week trough at 109.87 to 109.85 in Australia and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of today’s non-farm payrolls release, as said move signals decline from July’s peak at 114.49 has resumed, downside bias remains and below said support would extend fall to 109.50/60.
However, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 109.27.
On the upside, only above 110.59 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.77 but resistance at 110.98 would remain intact and yield retreat later.
AceTraderFx Aug 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Aug 2017 08:32 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.56
Although the greenback has retreated after Friday’s rally from a fresh 6-week trough at 109.85 to 111.05 on robust U.S. jobs report and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals erratic decline from July’s peak at 114.49 has made a temporary low there, upside bias is retained and above 111.05 would yield stronger retracement towards 111.62 (38.2%).
On the downside, only below 110.29 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 109.85, break would extend towards 109.60/63.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light today with Redbook retail sales being the only familiar data due out at 12:55GMT.
After last Friday’s jobs report, the only data that will capture market attention are Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI, so data watchers will have to be patient.
AceTraderFx Aug 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: 14 Aug 2017 09:25 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.73
Despite Friday’s resumption of recent decline from 114.49 (July) to a near 4-month trough of 108.74 in New York, intra-day rally to 109.64 in Asia due to easing of tension on North Korea confirms temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, however, reckon res at 110.18 would cap present rise and yield subsequent strong retreat.
On the downside, below 109.91/96 anytime signals correction is over and would yield weakness to 108.40/50.
After Fri’s key U.S. inflation data, no eco. data is due out from the U.S. today, so fund flow would have a strong influence in intra-day price swings.
AceTraderFx Aug 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]18 Aug 2017[/B] [I]09:25 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 108.97
Dollar’s intra-day weakness due to renewed safe-haven yen buying following Thursday’s terror attacks in Spain suggests re-test of last Friday’s near 4-month trough at 108.74 would be seen after consolidation, a daily close below there would yield re-test of 2017 bottom at 108.13 (April) later next week.
On the upside, only above 109.67/72 would ‘prolong’ choppy trading above said temporary low and may risk another bounce to 110.00/05, however, reckon 110.37 should cap upside.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light with University of Michigan being the only data due out at 14:00GMT, street forecast is looking for an Aug reading of 94.0 vs previous reading of 93.4.
Then at 14:15GNT, Dallas Fed Kaplan (voter) will speak again where he participates in a moderated Q&A session at a conference in Dallas.
AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]21 Aug 2017[/B] [I]09:05 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.05
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent cross-inspired decline to a 4-month bottom of 108.61 last Friday, subsequent rally to 109.59 in New York as news of firing of Trump’s chief strategist had boost risk sentiment, suggesting temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store.
The lack of usd buying interest today is due to return of another geopolitical risk as a 10-day military exercise between S. Korea n the U.S. begins on Monday and any missile threat by N. Korea will inevitably lead to another bout of yen n chf buying, so traders are not keen to buy the greenback despite Friday’s rally
Above 108.59 would bring stronger retracement to 109.85/95, however, reckon 110.37 should cap upside.
Only below 108.61 risks marginal weakness, ‘loss of downward’ momentum should keep price above 2017 trough (Apr) at 108.13.
U.S. eco. calendar is very thin today with National Activity index being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]28 Aug 2017[/B] [I]09:35 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.19
Dollar’s selloff from 109.85 due to broad-based usd’s weakness in New York morning after transcript of Fed Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech did not discuss monetary policy suggests early correction from August’s 4-month bottom has ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen but below said sup needed to extend recent decline to 118.30/40.
On the upside, only above 109.50/55 ‘prolongs’ choppy trading and may risk another rise to 109.80/85 but loss of upward momentum should cap price below 110.00/04.
Later in the day, U.S. will release wholesale inventories, trade balance and Dallas Fed mfg index.
AceTraderFx Sept 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time:[B] 01 Sep 2017[/B] [I]09:10 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 110.17
Although yesterday’s cross-inspired decline from 110.67 to 109.89 in New York after soft U.S. data and falling Treasury yields suggests upmove from Tuesday’s 4-1/2 month trough at 108.27 has made a temporary top and choppy sideways swings are in store ahead of U.S. jobs data.
As long as 109.50/60 holds, further gain to 110.95/05 is envisaged.
A daily close below 109.50 may risk stronger retracement to 109.00/05 before prospect of another rise next week.
Apart from U.S. jobs data, pay attention to ave. earnings, Markit mfg PMI, construction spending, ISM mfg PMI and University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time:[B] 05 Sep 2017[/B] [I]09:30GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.45
Although dollar’s intra-day selloff to 109.20 in Asia due renewed safe-haven buying of yen on continued tension on the Korean Peninsula suggests decline from last week’s high at110.67 (Thursday) would resume after consolidation, as broad outlook remains consolidative, ‘loss of downward momentum’ would limit weakness to 108.75/80 and risk has increased for a rebound.
On the upside, a firm rise above 109.89/92 would be the 1st signal said pullback is over and may head back towards 110.49.
U.S. will release a slew of data starting with Redbook sales, ISM New York index, durable goods orders and factory orders. Pay attention to speeches by Fed official starting with Fed Governor Brainard (voter) at 12:00GMT, and then Dallas Fed’s Kashkari (voter) at 17:10GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time:[B] 06 Sep 2017[/B] [I]09:30GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 108.73
Dollar’s intra-day weakness of continued safe-haven buying of yen suggests re-test of August’s 108.27 low would be seen after consolidation, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness for weakness twowards 2017 bottom at 108.13 which may hold on 1st testing.
Only above 109.20 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger gain towards 109.54, however, reckon res at 109.84 should hold.
[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]
Germany industrial orders, Italy retail sales, Canada exports, imports, trade balance, BoC interest rate decision, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, redbook, Markit services, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Beige book.
AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]13 Aug 2017[/B] [I]09:20 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 110.00
Although dollar’s resumption of upmove from last Friday’s 10-1/2 month bottom at 107.32 to as high as 110.29 today confirms medium-term downtrend has made a low there, ‘loss of upward momentum’ is expected to cap price below daily res at 110.67 and yield retrecement of said move.
Only below 109.59 signals temporary top is made and bring stronger pullback towards 109.24 but 109.00 should contain weakness.
Later in the day, U.S. will release final PPI data for August, so do not expect this to have much influence on intra-day price swing.
AceTraderFx Sept 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]15 Sept 2017[/B] [I]10:00 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 110.70
As dollar has risen strongly on broad-based yen selling after initial spike down to 109.55 (AUS) following another North Korea missile launch, suggesting pullback from yesterday’s 1-month high at 110.04 has ended, above 111.04/05 would extend upmove from 107.32 to projected target at 111.40/45 later today.
On the downside, below 110.07 would ‘prolong’ volatile trading and risk another fall to 109.70/80 but reckon 109.55 would remain intact.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with retail sales, New York Fed mfg, mfg n industrial output, cap. utilization, bus. inventories and then University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]19 Sept 2017[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 111.71
Despite dlr’s cross-inspired gain to a fresh 8-week high of 111.88, as near term upward momentum of recent rise from September’s 10-1/2 month bottom at 107.32 is weakening, reckon upside would falter below 112.20 and yield a ‘long-overdue’ correction, below 111.15/18 signals temporary top is made and brings retracement to 1110.87/90 but 110.63 would contain weakness.
Only above 112.20 extends marginally but 112.40/50 would hold and yield decline later today or tomorrow.
[B]Data to be released later today: [/B]
EU current account, construction output, ZEQ economic sentiment, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Canada manufacturing sales and U.S. current account, building permits, housing starts, import prices, export prices, redbook.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major