AceTraderForex Jun 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News,Views & data to be released today

Trading Discussion Currencies
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Nov 2016[/B] [I]01:00GMT[/I]

AUD/USD - 0.7748.. Aud's retreats in Asia after hitting a 6-month peak of 0.7778 near New York close Tuesday. Reuters just reported A measure of Australia's consumer sentiment slipped in November after three straight months of gains ahead of the U.S. election and as households became less confident of the property market and their own finances, its compilers said on Wednesday.

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank survey of 1,200 people found consumer sentiment faltered 1.1 percent in November, from October when it rose by a similar quantum.

That left the index at 101.3, with optimists still outnumbering pessimists.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

New Zealand electronic card retail sales, Australia consumer sentiment, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco Watchers Survey, China PPI, CPI, U.K. trade balance, U.S. mortgage applications, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Dec 2016[/B] [I]05:01GMT[/I]

AUD/USD - … Reuters reported earlier Australia’s central bank held rates steady at its last policy meeting of the year on Tuesday, but sounded a note of caution on economic growth after a run of soft data pointed to a possible contraction in the third quarter.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ended Tuesday’s meeting with rates at a record low of 1.5 percent following two easings this year, but conceded the annual pace of growth was set to slow.

Governor Philip Lowe also dropped a reference to the economy growing at potential in his statement.
Policymakers have been sounding more optimistic on the economic outlook amid higher prices for key commodity exports.
A report on Australia’s gross domestic product is due on Wednesday and analysts now fear it could show a small contraction, the first since early 2011.
The risk of a negative GDP number was enough to pull the local dollar down a quarter U.S. cent to $0.7450.

Interbank futures still suggest the market sees scant chance of another cut in rates for the next few months, though any thought of a hike has also been priced out.

Low inflation and a lacklustre labour market could put the RBA on notice to cut rates further. Underlying inflation is stuck at a record low of 1.5 percent and seems likely to remain below the RBA’s 2 to 3 percent target band for another year or more.
Employment growth has also disappointed in recent months, while being heavily skewed toward part-time jobs.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Dec 2016[/B] [I]01:11GMT[/I]

AUD/USD -.... Aussie fell from Asian 0.7474 high to 0.7418 after release of downbeat Australian GDP data.

Reuters reported Australia’s economy shrank for the first time in over five years last quarter as businesses, consumers and government all cut back on spending, an unexpected blow that will challenge policymakers’ optimism for growth.

The local dollar AUD=D4 sank about half a cent after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, from the second when it rose a revised 0.6 percent.
That was the first contraction since early 2011 and only the fourth since the country’s last recession in 1991.

The value of all goods and services was 1.8 percent higher than the same quarter last year, pulling back sharply from around 3.1 percent in the second quarter.
Business investment was the biggest drag with miners still unwinding a decade-long spending boom, while home building retreated after a very strong run.

The contraction was a major embarrassment to the conservative government of Malcolm Turnbull which won an election in July on a promise of delivering growth and jobs.
It was also chastening for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which has recently been sounding more upbeat on the economic outlook.

The bank conceded growth would slow when it held rates at 1.5 percent this week, but also predicted an eventual pick up.
So far, investors seem to share the RBA’s optimism as rate futures rate imply scant chance of another rate cut in the next few months, though all thought of a hike has also vanished.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Dec 2016[/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]

AUD/USD - .... Aussie shrugged off deepening Australia's budget deficit and edged higher to 0.7313 in Asia. Reuters reported Australia's conservative government on Monday forecast a A$10 billion deterioration in its budget deficit over the next four years but still hoped to snatch a surplus by 2020/21 and forestall a downgrade in its top credit rating.

There have been fears the update could trigger a downgrade in the country’s prized triple-A rating and push up borrowing costs on over a trillion dollars of federal, state and bank debt.
Facing slowing economic growth and a seemingly intractable deficit, Treasurer Scott Morrison reaffirmed an aspiration to return to surplus June 2021 through a mixture of spending cuts and tax-raising measures.

A downgrade would also be a political nightmare for the Liberal National government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, which has long sold itself as a competent economic manager that can be trusted to balance the books.
The budget update showed the government expected a A$36.5 billion deficit for the year to June, slightly narrower than the initial forecast of A$37.1 billion. It then projected a steady, if slow, improvement to A$10 billion by June 2020.

The Treasurer also revised down estimates for gross domestic product growth for this year and next after the A$1.6 trillion economy surprisingly contracted by 0.5 percent in the September quarter, the first shrinkage since 2011.
It now expects GDP growth of 2 percent in 2016/17, down from 2.5 percent, and a pick up to 2.75 percent in 2017/18.

One bright spot has been a recovery in prices for many of Australia’s major commodity exports, with coal and iron ore surging in the past few months. If sustained, that will add billions to the tax take and could ease the pressure on the ratings.
And even if the country is downgraded, analysts said they doubted that it would have much of an impact on bond yields or investor confidence.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jan 2017[/B] [I] 01:17GMT
[/I]
AUS/USD - … Despite release upbeat Australian trade data, AUD showed muted reaction to this.
Reuters reported earlier Australia boasted its first trade surplus in almost three years in November as surging commodity prices boosted export earnings beyond all expectations, a much-needed windfall for mining profits, national income and tax revenues.

Friday’s data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a trade surplus of A$1.24 billion ($908.92 million)in November, far above forecasts of a A$500 million deficit.
Exports jumped by 8.4 percent, or a whopping A$2.3 billion, to top A$30 billion for the first time ever. Coal, iron ore and rural exports all enjoyed double-digit gains, while imports were unchanged on the month.

November’s barnstormer ended a 31-month run of deficits and is likely a just a taster of more to come as prices for many key resources remain strong on the back of sustained Chinese demand.

Data to be released on Friday:

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, Germany industrial orders, France exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU retail sales, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, consumer confidence, Canada unemployment, exports, imports, trade balance, Ivey PMI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings and factory orders.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2017 01:12GMT

AUD/USD - … Reuters just reported Australia boasted its biggest trade surplus on record in December as surging commodity prices showered the resource-rich nation in cash, a windfall that could lessen the risk of a downgrade to its triple A credit rating.
Thursday’s data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a trade surplus of A$3.51 billion in December, handily outpacing forecasts of A$2.2 billion.

The previous month was also revised up sharply to A$2.0 billion, a double win that lifted the local dollar a quarter U.S. cent to $0.7624. Exports jumped by 5.3 percent to a record A$32.6 billion, led by double-digit gains in coal and iron ore, while imports edged up only 0.7 percent.
For the December quarter as a whole, the country notched up a surplus of A$4.8 billion in a startling turnaround from the previous quarter’s A$3.8 billion shortfall.

That will also sharply shrink the fourth-quarter current account deficit, a timely improvement given S&P Global Ratings has cited a reliance on foreign funding as one reason it might cut Australia’s top credit rating.
The rush of export earnings will also ripple through the economy via higher profits, incomes and tax receipts. That will again be a timely source of support given another engine of growth - residential construction - looks to be near its peak.

A separate report out on Thursday showed approvals to build new homes dipped 1.2 percent in December, the fourth fall in five months.
The pipeline of work yet to be done is still at record highs and should last longer in this cycle as much more of the construction comprises high-rise apartment towers.

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AceTraderFx Jun 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Jun 2017 02:23GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1135… The single currency is nursing loss in subdued Asian trading after yesterday’s break of last week’s 1.1133 low to a near 3-week bottom of 1.1119.
Despite intra-day choppy swings in Europe due to buying of eur vs gbp and jpy, the euro finally succumbed to active selling pressure on renewed usd’s strength in NY morning trading and fell to 1.1119 after tripping some stops below 1.1130.
However, bids above daily sup at 1.1110 contained intra-day weakness and price later inched higher to 1.1135/36 on minor short covering at New York close, then marginally higher to 1.1138 in Asian morning.

Although range trading above Tuesday’s temp. low is expected until European open, as yesterday’s break of last week’s 1.1133 low signals recent decline has resumed, one can expect further losses to occur in Europe, so trading euro from short side is the way to go.
Offers are tipped at 1.1140/45 and more above with stops above 1.1165.
Some bids are noted at 1.1120-10 with stops below 1.1100.

No major eco. data is due out from euro area countries but German FinMin Schaeuble will deliver a speech at German corporate governance conference in Frankfurt later today.

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AceTraderFx Jun 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jun 2017 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - 111.11… Despite staging an impressive rally from 111.07 to 111.74 in active trading on Wednesday, the greenback fell in New York afternoon session as retreat in U.S. stocks n U.S. Treasury yields triggered renewed broad-based yen buying.
The pair met renewed selling at 111.44 in Australia and fell to 111.07 in Tokyo trading on continued yen buying, suggesting further choppy trading below this week’s 111.79 (Tuesday) high would continue.

Offers are tipped at 111.40/50 and more above with stops above 111.80.
Bids are noted at 111.10-00 with stops below 110.90. More buying interest is reported at 110.80-70 with stops below 110.60.

U.S. will later release weekly jobless claims, monthly house prices n Kansas Fed mfg PMI. Pay attention to testimony by Fed Governor Powell who appears before a Senate Banking Committee hearing, “Fostering Economic Growth: Regulator Perspective,” at 14:00 GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jun 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jun 2017 02:03GMT

USD/JPY - 111.33… The greenback maintains a steady to firm undertone on subdued Asian morning after a mini roller-coaster session on Thursday. Although price met renewed selling in Australia yesterday on renewed cross-buying of yen to session lows of 110.95 in Asia on falling U.S. Treasury yields, price later ratcheted back to 111.44 in New York morning as U.S. yields firmed, dlr later moved narrowly after failure to penetrate 111.44 res.

Although range trading is likely to continue, as rebound from 110.95 suggests pullback from Tuesday’s 3-week peak at 111.79 has ended, trading the buck from long side is recommended.
Bids are noted at 111.20-10 and more below with stops reported below 110.90, more stops are touted below 110.60. Offers are tipped at 111.40/45 and more above with stops above 11.80.

Today is PMI day, U.S. will release Markit mfg and services PMIs, news home sales, if actual readings come in better than street forecast, the greenback will have room to move higher.
Pay attention to speeches by St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non voter), then Cleveland Fed President Mester (voter) and lastly, speech by Fed Reserve Board of Governors Powell (voter) Powell.

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AceTraderFx Jun 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Jun 2017 02:32GMT

USD/JPY - 111.28… Dlr moves narrowly in subdued Asian trading on Monday following Friday’s tight range. Looks like price would remain in range trading mode perhaps until release of U.S. data later in the day.
However, speech by San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non voter) in Sydney at 05:10GMT may have a small influence on intra-day price action.

Offers are noted at 111.40/45 with stops above there, more selling interest is tipped at 111.75/80 with stops above there. Bids are noted at 111.10/111.00 with stops below 110.90.

Pay attention to release of key Germany Ifo data at 08:00GMT, street forecast is for Jun is 114.2 cs previous reading at 114.6. If actual data comes in better than expectation, then euro wud gain a bit.
Last but not least, ECB President Draghi will speak in Lisbon and Sintra late in the day at 17:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jun 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Jun 2017 03:04GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1188… Euro remains on the back foot in subdued Asian trading after yesterday’s ‘roller-coaster’ move. Price rebounded from 1.1185 to 1.1208 in early European trading n fell on profit taking to 1.1172 ahead of New York open, however, release of downbeat U.S. durable goods sent price rallying briefly to session highs of 1.1220 but lack of follow-through buying soon led to long liquidation in New York trading.

Price later fell to 1.1175 after mildly dovish comments by ECB’s Draghi who on the sideline of a speech on inequality in Europe made to university student in Lisbon said super low rates create jobs, foster growth and benefit borrowers.
He also rebuked recent market calls to exit super easy monetary policy quickly, arguing that premature tightening would lead to a fresh recession and more inequality.

Offers are tipped at 1.1200/10 and more above with stops above 1.1230.
Bids are noted at 1.1175-70 with stops below there, more stops are touted below 1.1140.

Market will pay attention a key speech by ECB’s Draghi who is making an introductory speech at the ECB forum on central banking in Portugal at 09:00GMT.
Then ECB’s Coeure will will speak at the same event at 09:30GMT, then ECB’s Praet, who also at the same event will speak later at 11:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jun 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jun 2017 02:43GMT

USD/JPY - 112.25… Price remains in range trading mode n despite this week’s renewed broad-based weakness in the greenback, the pair has exhibited resilience to intra-day decline due to active cross-selling in the yen as firmness in U.S. stocks n rebound in U.S. Treasury yields have boosted risk sentiment.
In addition, dovish comments by BoJ Governor Kuroda said at ECB Forum yesterday the central bank would commit to easy policy is another supporting factor.

Intra-day retreat from 112.39/40 suggests further sideways swings below Tuesday’s 5-week high at 112.47 would continue, however, buying the pair on dips is still favoured.
Bids are noted at 112.00-111.80 area with stops below there.
Offers are tipped at 112.40/45 with stops above 112.50.

Pay attention to a slew of U.S. data later in the day starting with weekly jobless claims, final GDP (Q1), final PCE.
Bank of Japan board member Yutaka Harada will speak at capital markets seminar in Tokyo at 06:30GMT, then Fed’s Bullard, Fed’s Mester and Fed’s Powell.

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AceTraderFx July 03: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jul 2017 02:35GMT

USD/JPY - 112.34… Despite opening lower on Monday due to broad-based yen buying in New Zealand following Sunay’s crushing Tokyo election defeat by the ruling LDP, dlr buyers (or rather yen sellers) quickly emerged and help the pair erase intra-day losses, dlr rebounded to 112.40 in Asian morning, suggesting sideways swings are in store.

Looks like range trading would continue after Friday’s cross-inspired rebound from 111.73 to 112.59 (New York).
However, offers at 112.50/60 are likely to cap intra-day gain but stops are touted above 113.00.
Bids are noted at 112.00-111.90 n more below with stops below 111.70.

St Louis Fed President James Bullard will give lecture at a Bank of England research conference
at 08:35GMT, then U.S. will release constriction spending and ISM mfg PMI ahead of Tuesday’s Independence Day holiday.

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AceTraderFx July 03: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jul 2017 09:10GMT

GBP/USD - 1.2976… Cable falls on downbeat UK data. Reuters just reported British factories grew more slowly than expected in June as export orders rose at the weakest pace in five months, according to a survey on Monday that could make Bank of England officials think twice about raising interest rates.

The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 54.3 from a downwardly revised 56.3 in May, a three-month low and below all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists that pointed to a reading of 56.5.

Britain’s economy barely grew in the first three months of the year, with consumers facing the double hit of accelerating inflation, caused in large part by the fall in the pound since the Brexit vote, and slowing wage growth.

Monday’s survey suggested that the supposed silver lining of a weak currency - more competitive exports - is proving elusive.

Economic data to be released :
France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, UK manufacturing PMI, U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Jul 06: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jul 2017 02:15GMT

USD/JPY - 113.14… Dlr pares yesterday’s gain to a 6-week high of 113.69 in Asia as traders bot yen broadly vs usd, euro, aud n sterling shortly after Tokyo open, suggesting choppy range trading below 113.69 would be seen with downside bias.
Offers are tipped at 113.30/40 and more above with stops above 113.85.
Initial bids are noted at 112.85-75 with stops reported below 112.70.

The release of o/n Fed minutes caused initial knee-jerk price reaction and eventually causing dlr to weaken a bit vs its peers, however, this week’s short-covering rally in the dlr still has legs to go higher esp if U.S. private ADP payrolls come in stronger than expectation, so one can buy the greenback on dips or sell on next upmove.

Also pay attention to speeches by Fed officials, starting with S.F. Fed’s Williams who is delivering a speech in Tasmania, Australia (he was in the Down Under in the last week of Jun), then Fed’s Powell at 14:00GMT.

U.S. will release a slew of data staring with mortgage applications, ADP payrolls, initial jobless claims, trade balance, Markit services PMI n then ISM non-mfg PMI.

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AceTraderFx Jul 07: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jul 2017 02:23GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1424… Although euro maintained its firm undertone in subdued Australian trading early this morning following yesterday’s impressive rally from 1.1331 (Europe) to as high as 1.1424 after release of hawkish ECB minutes (EZ bonds yields also jumped afterwards) and then downbeat U.S. ADP private jobs report, intra-day rally in dlr/yen led to broad-based usd’s strength, causing euro bulls to unwind their longs, euro retreated from intra-day marginal high at 1.1426 (AUS) to 1.1410.

Range trading below 1.1424 is now expected until European open, however, renewed buying is likely to emerge on dips with bids noted at 1.1400-1.1390 with stops below 1.1380.
Offers are tipped at 1.1420/25 and more above with stops above last week’s near 14-month high at 1.1445.

Ahead of U.S. NFP, euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany’s industrial production, France will release the same, then budget balance, current account n later Italy’s retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Jul 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Jul 2017 03:12GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1396… The single currency moved narrowly in lackluster Mon’s session n continues to orbit 1.1400 level in subdued Asian trading today, suggesting further sideways wings below last Friday’s 1.1440 high would continue.

Having said that, yesterday’s dlr’s gain vs other G3 currencies suggests consolidation with downside bias remains.
Offers are tipped at 1.1415/20 with stops above 1.1450, bids are noted at 1.1385/80 with stops below 1.1370, there is market chatter of good buying interest at 1.1330-10 area.
So market is in ‘holding pattern’ ahead of key Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the Congress tomorrow.

Today, there is EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting in Brussels n ECB Board member Constancio will participate in the meeting, then at 11:00GMT, another ECB Board member Coeure will deliver a speech at the FX Contact Group meeting in Frankfurt at 13:00GMT.

Eco. calendar is very light today, Italy will release industrial output for May which will be ignored by traders.

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AceTraderFx Jul 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jul 2017 05:00GMT

USD/JPY - 112.97… Dlr remains on the back foot in Asian trading. Despite staging a short covering rebound to intra-day high of 113.53 at Tokyo open, sellers (or yen buyers) emerged n quickly knocked price lower, suggesting re-test of yesterday’s low at 112.93 (New York) would be seen soon, so selling the greenback on recovery for a stronger correction of recent uptrend is favoured, this week’s decline in the U.S. Treasury yields esp. yesterday following mildly dovish Fed Yellen’s dovish statements add to present bearish dlr view.

Offers are tipped at 113.20/30 and more above with stops above 113.55.
Some bids are noted at 112.90/80 with stops below 112.70.

Pay attention to release of a slew of U.S. data later in the day at 12:30GMT with CPI, PPI, jobless claims.
Then at 14:00GMT, Fed Chair will appear on the last day of her 2-day testimony at Capital Hill. Fed’s Evans will speak at 15:30GMT and then at 17:00GMT, Fed Governor Brainard will give a speech.

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AceTraderFx Jul 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Jul 2017 02:39GMT

USD/JPY - 113.44… Despite yesterday’s initial cross-inspired weakness to a near 2-week low of 112.93 in Asia, the greenback staged a short-covering rally to 113.47 in New York morning as rise in U.S. Treasury yields and continued gain in U.S. stocks markets (DJI hit record highs) boosted risk appetite and led to broad-based yen selling vs eur, aud and nzd.

The pair extended its o/n gain at Tokyo open and climbed marginally higher to 113.57 before easing, suggesting range trading is in store and mild upside bias remains for further retracement of this week’s decline from Tuesday’s near 4-month peak at 114.49 esp. if U.S. data especially the CPI and retail sales data come in slightly higher than street forecast, so be prepared for a lively/hectic New York morning trading.

Bids are noted at 113.30-20 and more below with stops below 112.80.
Offers are tipped at 113.60/70 with stops above 113.80, a mixture of selling interest and stops is reported at 113.95/00.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later in the day starting with CPI, retail sales, real weekly earnings, industrial output n manufacturing output, bus. inventories n University of Michigan consumer confidence. Last but not least, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) will deliver a speech in Mexico City at 14:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jul 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Jul 2017 02:10GMT

USD/JPY - 112.63… Dlr traded relatively narrowly in holiday-thinned Asian morning as Japanese financial markets are closed for Marine Day national holiday following selloff from 113.58 (Asia) to as low as 112.27 in New York morning after key U.S. CPI and retail sales data missed market forecast, knocking U.S. bond yields lower, however, price later rebounded as U.S. yields staged a recovery.

Looks like range trading above said Fri’s 10-day low at 112.27 would continue due to intra-day minor broad-based recovery is the greenback, however, market sentiment remains bearish on the buck, so trading dlr from short side in anticipated of a re-test of 112.27 is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 112.65/75 with some stops above 112.90, more stops are noted above 113.00.
Bids are noted at 112.40-30 with stops below 112.00, more stops are touted below 111.70.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty thin after Friday’s release of a slew of key data and NYT Fed mfg index is the only reading due out at 12:30GMT, so technical trading will prevail for rest of the day.