AceTraderFx Dec 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.37
Dollar’s rebound to 109.53 in Australia today suggests pullback from 109.70 has ended at 109.19 last Thursday and re-test of Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93, then 110.10 before prospect of correction.
On the downside, only below 109.19 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 108.94, then 108.44/46.
Pay attention to release of U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are 1.9% and 0.1% vs previous readings of 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 24: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 24 Dec 2019 04:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.40… The greenback traded with a firm bias yesterday, albeit inside a narrow range in thin trading conditions ahead of Christmas holidays. Price found renewed buying at 109.40 in New Zealand and rose marginally above Friday’s high at 109.52 to 109.53 at Asian open before retreating to 109.35 in early European morning on cross-buying in jpy and then traded sideways in New York.
Dollar’s rebound from last Thursday’s low at 109.19 to 109.53 yesterday suggests recent pullback from 109.70 has ended there and re-test of December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 would be seen. Therefore, buying on dips for a resumption of upmove from August’s low at 104.46 is favored.
Bids are now seen at 109.20/30 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 110.00/10.
AceTraderFx Dec 27: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 27 Dec 2019 04:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49… The greenback found renewed buying at 109.30 ahead of Asian open yesterday and gained to 109.56 in Asian morning. The pair continued to ratchet higher and hit session highs at 109.68 in holiday-thinned New York on improved risk appetite as concerns over U.S. and China eased. However, failure to penetrate December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 triggered profit-taking and price retreated to 109.44 in Asia today.
Dollar’s retreat from 109.68 suggests further choppy trading below December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue with downside bias and marginal weakness is likely
However, bids at 109.30/40 should contain current pullback and yield another rise later.
Therefore, buying on dips for a resumption of upmove from August’s low at 104.46 is favored.
AceTraderFx Dec 30: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 30 Dec 2019 04:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1199… The single currency traded with a firm bias on Friday and rose steadily throughout the day on usd’s weakness and hit a high at 1.1187 in New York afternoon before retreating to 1.1172 near New York closing on profit-taking. However, the pair found renewed buying interest in New Zealand today and rose above December’s 4-month peak at 1.1199 to 1.1210 in Asian morning before easing.
Euro’s intra-day rise above December’s peak at 1.1199 signals erratic upmove from October’s trough at 1.0880 has once again resumed and further gain to 1.1249 would be seen after consolidation. Bids are now raised to 1.1180/90 and more below at 1.1160/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.1250/60.
Pay attention to the release of Germany retail sales at 07:00GMT. Street forecasts for mm and yy are 1.0% and 0.9% vs previous readings of -1.9% and 0.8% respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 31: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 31 Dec 2019 04:30GMT
GBP/USD - 1.3127… The British pound also traded with a firm bias in Asia yesterday and gained to 1.3125 in Asian morning before edging down to 1.3087 in early European morning. However, renewed buying there lifted the pair to session highs at 1.3150 in New York morning due partly to cross-buying in sterling especially vs euro. Price then retreated to 1.3103 near New York closing before rebounding again to 1.3135 in Asian morning.
Cable’s rise above Friday’s high at 1.3117 to 1.3150 yesterday suggests upmove from last Monday’s low at 1.2905 has resumed and gain to 1.3164 would be seen. However, offers at 1.3170/80 and more above at 1.3190/00 would cap upside and yield retreat.
AceTraderFx Jan 02: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 02 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.68… The greenback traded with a firm bias in thin trading conditions on the first trading day of 2020 and edged up to 108.75 in Australia before retreating to 108.61 ahead of Asian open and continues to trade inside a narrow range as Japanese markets are closed.
Dollar’s sideways move after Tuesday’s selloff to 108.48 would continue and offers at 108.80/90 and more above at 108.90/00 would cap upside and yield another fall later. Therefore, trading from short side for a resumption of decline from December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 is favored.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT.
Street forecast is for an increase to 225K from previous reading of 222K.
AceTraderFx Jan 03: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 03 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
GBP/USD - 1.3128… The British pound went through a roller-coaster ride yesterday as despite edging up to session highs at 1.3266 in Asian morning, price dropped to 1.3203 ahead of European open before recovering. However, the pair met renewed selling at 1.3230 in early European morning and tumbled to an intra-day low at 1.3116 in New York afternoon due partly to cross-selling in sterling especially vs euro. The pair then staged a short-covering rebound to 1.3160 in Asian morning today before retreating again.
Cable’s selloff to 1.3116 yesterday suggests recent upmove from last Monday’s low at 1.2905 has made a temporary top at 1.3283 on Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.3094, then 1.3040/50. Offers are now lowered to 1.3140/50 and more above at 1.3160/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3020/30.
Pay attention to the release of UK construction PMI at 09:30GMT. Street forecast is for a slight uptick to 45.9 from previous reading of 45.3.
AceTraderFx Jan 06: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 06 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1166… Euro moves narrowly in subdued Asian trading as market focus is on the safe-haven yen as well as gold n oil. Having said that, the single currency went through a ‘roller-coaster’ ride in hectic Fri session.
Price met renewed selling in Asia at 1.1178 Friday and tumbled to a near 1-week low of 1.1126 (Europe) due to active selling in eur/yen and eur/chf crosses, however, release of downbeat U.S. data hurt the usd n triggered active short covering in euro, price later rallied to session highs of 1.1180 before retreating to 1.1153 near the close. As rebound from 1.1126 suggests pullback from last Tue’s 4-1/2 month peak has possibly ended, consolidation with upside bias is seen. Bids are noted at 1.1160-50 with stops below 1.1125.
Offers are noted at 1.1180-00 area with stops touted above 1.1200/05.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Germany will kick off 2ith retail sales, Italy will release Markit services PMI for Dec, then the same fm France, Germany n then the EU as well as Setix sentiment index n PPI.
AceTraderFx Jan 08: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 08 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1157… Euro moved narrowly in Asian morning as the Japanese yen took centre stage due to escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict.
Despite yesterday’s selloff from 1.1197 (AUS) to 1.1134 in New York on usd’s strength following upbeat US data, price found renewed buying at 1.1146 (AUS) n rose to 1.1168 as intra-day selloff in usd/yen and usd/chf lifted the pair. Expect range trading to continue in European morning.
Offers tipped at 1.1170/80 n more above with stops above 1.1210 while bids are noted at 1.1145-35 with stops reported below 1.1120.
There is is slew of eco. data (pls refer to EI section for details) but traders will most likely react to US ADP private payrolls at 13:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 09: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 09 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.19… It is inconceivable to see the greenback hitting a 12-week low of 107.66 in early Asian trading Wednesday due to active safe-haven yen buying on news of Iranian rocket attacks on U.S. base in Iraq but only to see the pair easing intra-day losses n later rallied to 108.81 in New York morning, then an impressive rise to as high as 109.24 after Trump’s statement on Iran at the White House triggered broad-based yen selling.
Well, as the market is always right and we are sometimes wrong, dlr’s rally from 107.66 to 109.24 yesterday, then 109.25 today suggests correction from Dec’s 6-month peak at 109.72 has ended n re-test of this level is now envisaged (Fri perhaps on robust U.S. payrolls report). Therefore, one has to go with the flow n buy dlr on dips.
Bids are noted at 109.00-108.80 area with stops below 108.60. Offers are tipped at 109.25/35 with stops above 109.50 n more above 109.75.
The only data due out fm the U.S. is weekly jobless claims, so market awaits earnestly for Fri’s key jobs report. However, do pay attention to speeches n interview of a number of Fed official during U.S. session which may have a short-term impact on price movement (see our EI section for full details).
AceTraderFx Jan 10: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 10 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
GBP/USD - 1.3068… The British pound went through a volatile session on Thursday. Although cable gained from 1.3094 in Australia to 1.3123 in Asia, the pair met renewed selling and intra-day fall accelerated in European morning and tumbled to a 10-day low at 1.3014 after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that there could be a “relatively prompt response” form the central bank if it looked like weakness in the economy will persist before staging a strong rebound to 1.3069 in New York, then briefly higher to 1.3072 at Asian open today.
Although cable’s rebound after yesterday’s selloff below last week’s low at 1.3054 suggests recent decline from 1.3283 has made a temporary bottom and range trading would be seen ahead of European open before said fall resumes and extends to 1.2980/90.
Offers are tipped at 1.3070/75 with stops above 1.3090 while bids are noted at 1.3020-15 with more below and stops below 1.2970.
Although there is no economic data coming out form UK today, we have an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, Silvana Tenreyro, due to speak at 09:30 GMT on the outlook for the labour market at the Resolution Foundation think-tank.
AceTraderFx Jan 13: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 13 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
GBP/USD - 1.3035… The British pound went through a roller-coaster ride on Friday. Although cable gained to 1.3091 in Asia, price retreated to 1.3049 in European morning before rising to session highs at 1.3098 at New York open on soft U.S. jobs data. However, the pair quickly eased intra-day choppy gain n dropped to 1.3043 and then opened lower to 1.3021 (Reuters) in New Zealand today due to dovish comments from Bank of England policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe on Sunday (see earlier update).
Cable’s retreat from 1.3098 on Friday suggests recovery from last week’s low at 1.3014 (Thursday) has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains, below said support would extend recent decline from 1.3283 to 1.2963/69, however, ‘loss of downward momentum’ should keep price above 1.2905 and yield rebound. Offers have been lowered to 1.3045/55 with stops above 1.3080 and more above 1.3100 while bids are noted at 1.3005-00 with stops below 1.2960.
On the economic calendar today, UK will release a slew of data starting with GDP, followed by industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, and trade balance.
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 14 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.08… Dollar found renewed buying at 109.45 (Reuters) in New Zealand yesterday and gained to 109.64 in Asia. Intra-day ascent accelerated in European morning and price rose to 109.92 and then ratcheted higher to 109.94 in New York on broad-based yen selling as the United States and China are preparing to sign off phase one trade agreement on Wednesday. The pair then easily penetrated 109.94 and rallied to a fresh 7-1/2 month high at 110.11 at Asian open today before retreating.
Yesterday’s break of Dec’s 109.72 high to 109.94, then 110.11 today suggests medium term upmove from 2019 33-month trough at 104.46 has once again resumed and further gain to 110.50/60 would be seen after consolidation, however, ‘loss of upward momentum’ should cap price below 110.95/00 and yield a much-needed correction.
Bids are noted at 110.00 with more below with stops below 109.50 while offers are tipped at 110.50 with stops above 110.70.
On the data front, U.S. will release core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings and redbook at 13:55 GMT, then Federal budget at 19:00 GMT later. Also, we have New York Fed’s President John Williams due to speak at 14:10 GMT, followed by Kansas City Fed’s President Esther George at 18:00 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 15: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 15 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
GBP/USD - 1.3021… The British pound went through a volatile session on Tuesday. Cable met renewed selling at 1.3002 in Asian morning and briefly dropped to an 18-day low at 1.2955 in European morning due to continued concern of an interest rate cut from the Bank of England later this month, price then found renewed buying and gained to 1.3015 (Reuters). Despite retreating again to 1.2974, the pair rallied to an intra-day high of 1.3034 in New York afternoon on cross-buying in sterling as well as usd’s weakness before stabilising.
Despite cable’s resumption of recent decline from 1.3283 (Dec 31) to 1.2955 yesterday, subsequent rebound to 1.3034 suggests temporary bottom is in place and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards 1.3080/90, however, 1.3119 (50% r) should remain intact and yield retreat.
Bids are noted at 1.3005-00 with stops below 1.2980 while offers are tipped at 1.3045/50 with more above and stops above 1.3100.
On the economic calendar today, UK will release CPI, core CPI, RPI, core CPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices and DCLG hoe price index at 09:30 GMT. Also, we have MPC member Michael Saunders scheduled to speak at 08:40 GMT and Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Jon Cunliffe, will participate in roundtable.
AceTraderFx Jan 16: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 16 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
GBP/USD - 1.3044… The British pound proved to be quite tricky to trade on Wednesday. Although cable extended Tuesday’s gain to 1.3042 in Asia, price met renewed selling and dropped to an intra-day low of 1.2985 in European morning on soft UK inflation data. However, the pair then rebounded to 1.3028, and then 1.3040 (Reuters) in New York afternoon before retreating to 1.3023. The pound then rose to 1.3057 in Australia today and move sideways in subdued Asian session.
Despite cable’s resumption of decline from 1.3283 (December 31) to an 18-day low of 1.2955 on Tuesday, subsequent rebound to 1.357 today suggests temporary bottom is in place and consolidation with mild upside bias remains, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 1.3080 (38.2%) and yield retreat.
Bids are noted at 1.3035-30 with stops below 1.3005-00 while offers are tipped at 1.3065/70 with stops above 1.3100.
Although we have no economic data from UK later today, we have Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane scheduled to speak at 18:00 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 17: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 17 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1137… Although the single currency retreated from 1.1157 at Asian open to 1.1145 ahead of European open yesterday, price then gained to an 8-day high at 1.1172 ahead of New York open due partly to buying in eur/jpy cross. However, the pair met renewed selling there and tumbled to an intra-day low of 1.1129 in New York due to upbeat U.S. data before rebounding to 1.1142 in Asian morning today on short-covering.
Despite euro’s resumption of recent upmove from last Friday’s 2-week bottom at 1.1086 to 1.1172 yesterday, subsequent retreat to 1.1129 suggests temporary top is in place and consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.1105 (Tuesday’s low) would bring re-test of 1.1086, where break would extend decline from Dec’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.1239 to 1.1067/70.
Offers are tipped at 1.1145/50 with stops above 1.1170 while bids are noted at 1.1120, with more below and stops below 1.1100.
On the economic calendar today, Swiss will kick off with producer/import price, then France budget balance, Italy trade balance, CPI, and EU current account, construction output, HICP.
AceTraderFx Jan 20: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 20 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
GBP/USD - 1.3003… The British pound went through a volatile session on Friday. Although cable gained from 1.3065 in Asian morning and then jumped to a 1-week high of 1.3120 (Reuters) in European morning, price erased its losses and dropped to 1.3028 as release of downbeat UK retail sales data increased speculation of an interest rate cut from the Bank of England later this moth. The pair then recovered to 1.3059 but only to fall again to 1.3007 ahead of New York close and then opened lower to 1.2980 (Reuters) in New Zealand before rebounding to 1.3008 at Asian open.
Despite cable’s strong rebound from last Tuesday’s 18-day low at 1.2955 to 1.3120 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 1.2980 today suggests correction has ended and re-test of said support would be seen after consolidation, where break would extend decline from 1.3283 (December 31) to 1.2905/10. Hence, selling on recovery is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 1.3015 with more above and stops above 1.3060 while bids are noted at 1.2970-65 with stops below 1.2955.
Although there will be no economic data coming out from UK later today, as Brexit deadline approaches on Jan. 31st, traders should pay attention to related headlines that may cause some volatility in the market.
AceTraderFx Jan 21: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 21 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.95… Although dollar initially fell to 110.05 in New Zealand yesterday, price recovered to 110.21 at Asian open before moving broadly sideways in Europe and then in holiday-thinned North American session as U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King holiday. The pair then dropped sharply from 110.21 at Asian open today to 109.91 after PBOC lifted its official yuan midpoint to the highest in 6-1/2 months at 6.8606 per dollar and then rebounded.
Although dollar’s intra-day fall from 110.21 suggests further choppy trading below last Friday’s fresh 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 would continue, as long as 109.69/72 holds, upside bias remains for medium term upmove from 2019 33-month trough at 104.46 to resume and extend towards 110.67 before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.
Bids are noted at 109.95-90 with stops below 109.70 while offers are tipped at 110.30/40 with more above and stops above 110.70.
Pay attention to Bank of Japan’s rate decision (usually between 02:30-03:30GMT) and although the central bank is expected to keep policy on hold, investors should pay attention to Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s press conference at 06:30GMT about the economic outlook especially after the U.S. and China has signed off phase one of the trade deal earlier.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 22 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1078… Euro remains on the back foot in Asia, trading just one tick above Monday’s near 3-week trough of 1.1077.
Despite catching a bid in European morning at 1.1086 on upbeat German ZEW data n rising to session highs of 1.1118 in New York morning, the pair erased intra-day gain as usd met renewed broad-based buying, price later tumbled 1.1081 ahead of the close. Intra-day weakness suggests recent decline from December’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.1239 is en route to next daily target at 1.1041, so trading from short side is the way to go.
Offers have been lowered to 1.1085/90 n more above with stops above 1.1120.
Some bids are touted at 1.1075-70 with stops below 1.1065.
On the data front, France will release January business climate at 07:45GMT n then Italy’s industrial orders and sales data at 09:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 23 Jan 2020 04:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.65… Dlr remains on the back foot in hectic Asian trading on renewed safe-haven yen buying as news of closure of airport n train station of Wuhan, the city in China where coronavirus started triggered another bout of risk-off trade, the pair fell from 109.86 (AUS) to 109.61 after tripping stops below 109.75.
Dlr’s intra-day firm break of yesterday’s 109.77 low signals recent upmove has made a temp. top at last Friday’s 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 n downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.44, reckon 109.00/05 would hold. Offers have been lowered to 109.75/85 with stop above 110.00. Some bids are noted at 109.55-45 area with stops below there.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with initial weekly jobless claims, leading index n Kansas City mfg index.