AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Trading Discussion Currencies
84

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
12 Aug 2015[/B] [I]02:22GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Dlr briefly climbed above yesterday's 2-month high of 125.21 (NY) to 125.25 as a surprise move by the PBOC to weaken the mid-reference point of the yuan by another 1.618% led to broad-based gain in the greenback, both Aud and Nzd tumbled to fresh 6-year lows and Asian ccys also tanked on this China move.

Although intra-day firmness suggests buying dlr on dips is the way to go, intra-day sell-off in the Nikkei following on weakness in the Dow and fall in U.S. Treasury yields to 3-month lows on Tuesday suggest strong gain is unlikely and upside should falter below 2015 peak at 125.86.

Bids are noted at 125.05-00 and more below with stops reported below 124.60.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 125.40/50 and more at 125.65/75 with fairly large stops above 125.90/00.
At 04:30GMT, Japan will release Jun’s industrial production and capacity utilisation.

[B]Data to be release on Wednesday: [/B]

Japan CGPI, machinery orders, industrial output, capacity utilisation, Australia WPI, consumer sentiment, China industrial output, retail sales, France current account, Italy trade balance, UK ILO unemployment rate, claimant count, average earnings, EU industrial production and U.S. Fed budget.

85

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
13 Aug 2015[/B] [I]02:06GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Despite intra-day knee-jerk reaction when China weakened the official mid-point reference rate of the yuan for the 3rd day, market has gotten used to this action and dlr briefly dipped to 124.07 before paring intra-day loss and climbed back to 124.39.

Looks like choppy sideways trading above yesterday’s low of 123.79 made in NY following intra-day spectacular sell-off from a fresh 2-month peak of 125.28 as Asian bourses are in the green today following a surprise strong rebound in the Dow in NY afternoon (DJI initially tumbled by 277 points in NY morning but almost erased all its intra-day losses by Wed’s closing).

Offers are tipped at 124.40 and more above with stops above 124.70 whilst initial bids are reported at 124.10-00 and more below with stops touted below 123.70.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday: [/B]

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan machinery orders, Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, Swiss PPI, Canada new housing price, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, jobless claims and business inventories.

86

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
14 Aug 2015[/B] [I]01:27GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY -[/B] ...... Dlr pared Wednesday's sharp sell-off from a 2-month peak of 125.28 yesterday and climbed from intra-day low of 124.07 made in Asian morning to 124.59 due to rebound in global stocks. Price touched session high of 124.63 after in-line U.S. retail sales data.

However, intra-day broad-based dlr’s retreat pressured price to 124.25 but renewed selling in yen cross especially vs EUR & GBP lifted the pair to 124.49 in NY afternoon.

Intra-day sideways move signals further range trading is set to continue, however, yen’s o/n weakness suggests consolidation with mild upside bias is in store.
Bids are noted at 124.30-25 and more below with stops below 124.00, more stops are building below this week’s trough at 123.79.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 124.60/65 and more above with some stops reported above 125.00, however, more selling interest is touted at 125.20/30.

[B]Data to be released on Friday:[/B]

New Zealand retail sales, France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, EU GDP and inflation reports, Canada manufacturing sales, U.S. capacity utilisation and industrial output. Eurogroup will meet in Brussels at 13:00GMT on Friday to discuss Greece’s third bailout package.

88

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Apr 2015[/B] [I]00:28GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Breaking news on Reuters quoting comments from BoJ official who says :

Tankan show big manufacturers, non-manufacturers see labour market conditions at tightest levels since 2008;
tankan indexes show small manufacturers, non-manufacturers see labour conditions at tightest levels since 1992.

It reported earlier confidence among big Japanese manufacturers held steady in the 3 months to March and is expected to worsen slightly ahead, a closely watched central bank survey showed, in a worrying sign for the government’s efforts to boost the economy.

The headline index for big manufacturers’ sentiment was unchanged from 3 months earlier at plus 12 in March, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “tankan” survey showed on Wednesday.

That compared with the median estimate of plus 14 in a Reuters poll of economists.

Big firms plan to cut capital expenditures by 1.2% in the fiscal year that starts April 1, the survey showed. Companies tend to be cautious about capital spending plans at the beginning of a new fiscal year and often revise them up as the year progresses.

The tankan’s sentiment indexes are derived by subtracting the number of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say they are good. A positive reading means optimists outnumber pessimists.

[B]Wednesday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s tankan index, Australia’s building approvals, China NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone manufacturing PMI, U.K. manufacturing PMI, U.S. ADP employment, ISM manufacturing and construction spending.

90

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
19 Aug 2015[/B] [I]09:45GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Dlr traded with a soft bias in Asia and early Europe and edged lower from 124.43 to 124.21 as risk-off trades continued to weigh on the demand for the greenback vs yen.

Order book is pretty thin right now as investors are reluctant to enter large positions ahead of the release of U.S. inflation reports and FOMC minutes in NY session.

Offers are tipped at 124.40/50 and more above with stops reported above 124.70. However, selling interest is touted at 124.80/90.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 124.20/10 with some stops below 124.00.

91

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
20 Aug 2015[/B] [I]02:07GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ..... The greenback pares o/n sell-off to 123.69 in post-FOMC New York session after Fed minutes dashed market expectation of a Fed rate hike in September or anytime soon.

As usual, after a big move in New York, Tokyo players will fade the move and traders spotted dlr buying by Japanese importers shortly after Tokyo open, dlr edged back to 123.99 before easing as softness in the Nikkei n Chinese stocks is dampening risk sentiment in the Japanese yen.

Expect consolidation above 123.69 until European open before decline resumes.
However, steep fall is unlikely as traders will wait for release of Thursday’s U.S. weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and leading indicator due out later in the day.

Offers are tipped at 124.95/05 ans more above with stops noted at 124.20. Initial bids are reported at 123.80-70 and more below with stops touted below 123.50.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday:[/B]

Germany producer prices, Switzerland’s trade balance, UK’s retail sales and CBI trends, Canada’s wholesale trade, U.S.'s existing homes sales, leading index and Philly Fed business index.

92

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
21 Aug 2015[/B] [I]02:16GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Dlr languishes near a 3-week low of 123.21 in nervous Tokyo trading on Friday. Traders reported 'heavy' volumes changed hand in NY session, knocking the pair from 123.94 to 123.33 near NY close.

Despite a minor short-covering bounce to 123.50 at Asian open, broad-based selloff in Asian stocks (Nikkie currently down nearly 2%) has prompted yen-buying on risk aversion, suggesting dlr would remain under pressure and extend recent decline toward chart sup at 123.01 where fairly large stops are touted below there.

Therefore, selling the pair on recovery is the way to go with offers tipped at 123.50, then 123.65/70.
Bids are noted at 123.10/00 and stops below there.

[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]

Japan’s Normural/JMMA manufacturing PMI, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, Markit’s service and manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany and euro zone, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, UK’s PSNCR and PSNB, Canada’s CPI and retail sales, EU consumer confidence, and Markit service PMI for U.S.

93

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
25 Aug 2015[/B] [I]01:30GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] -..... Japanese officials are publicly expressing their 'dismal' on recent sudden yen's strength especially Monday's spectacular gain by the Yen to a 7-month high vs the dollar at 116.15.

Reuters reported Japan’s top government spokesman said on Tuesday that recent movements in financial markets have been rough and that the country will continue to cooperate with G7 financial authorities and take steps if needed.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga also told a news conference that the government will continue to closely monitor market moves.
He repeated that Japan’s economy continues its gradual recovery as corporate earnings are at record highs and as the job market and wages are improving.
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso warned market players against pushing up the Yen too much further, saying that its spike against the dollar overnight was “rough” and undesirable for the economy.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

New Zealand inflation expectations, Germany GDP, Ifo reports, UK BBA mortgage approvals, U.S. monthly home price, Redbook, Markit service PMI, consumer confidence, and new home sales.

94

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
26 Aug 2015 [/B] [I]01:00GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ..... Although price is currently trading roughly where it was 24 hours ago, the pair went through a roller-coaster session on Tuesday.

Despite intra-day 'knee-jerk rise to 120.40 shortly after European midday following news of rate cuts by PBOC, dlr was unable to hold on to intra-day gain and even through global stocks rallied on the move by the China central bank.
Dlr later tumbled to 118.60 near NY close as U.S. completely initial gain and fell (Dow closed down 204 points after initial 400-plus gain).

Dlr’s intra-day rebound from 118.45 after Nikkei managed to stay in positive territory suggests consolidation is in store in Asia.
Initial bids are noted at 118.60-40 and more below with stops below 118.20, then 118.00.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 119.40/50 and more above with some stops touted above 120.00.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

New Zealand trade balance, UK nationwide house prices, CBI distributive trades, and U.S. durable goods orders. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will speak at the National Reform Summit, hosted by The Australian and the Australian Financial Review.

95

Forex Forecast: Swiss recession possible, USD/JPY risks a bigger retracement, EUR heading higher

Nicole Elliott, Private Investor, joined Tip TV to offer the outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY and the CHF.

Key points from the video:

EUR sees upside potential

USD/JPY downside risks?

DXY pushed down by Majors

CHF – Another SNB move in sight?

EUR not crumbling any more

Elliott takes a look at the weekly technical charts for EUR/USD, noting that the pair is seen consolidating in a right angled triangle pattern. She further adds that the cross is back at January’s levels and it looks like the strong USD theme hasn’t worked out in this consensus driven trade.

EUR/USD breaking above 1.18 will see the cross gain additional upside strength.

Majors pushing DXY lower

Elliott explains how the concerns about a strong dollar in the US, combined with strength in the majors versus the USD is adding to further DXY weakness. USD/JPY sees downside risks? USD/JPY is seeing a huge weekly move after a long time, notes Elliott. She looks at the technical charts for the cross and notes that risk of a bigger retracement does exists.

See more at: Forex Forecast: Swiss recession possible, USD/JPY risks a bigger retracement, EUR heading higher | TipTV.co.uk

96

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
27 Aug 2015[/B] [I]02:24GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ...... The greenback found renewed buying at 118.92 in NY morning yesterday after the release of upbeat U.S. durable goods data together with the rally in U.S. stocks n rose to 120.37 in Australia today. Lack of follow-through buying triggered some profit-taking and price retreated to 119.82 at Tokyo open.

However, the rise in N225 index prompted another round of buying and price gained again.

Bids are now seen at 119.90/00 and more below at 119.70/80 with stops building up below there, suggesting buying on dips is still favored.

Traders are now awaiting the release of U.S. GDP figures at 12:30GMT. The data will paint a clearer picture of the country’s economy n the probable timescale for the first Fed rate hike.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday:[/B]

Australia building capex, capital expenditure, U.K. Nationwide house price, Germany import price, France business climate, Switzerland industrial orders, and U.S. jobless claims, GDP, PCE and pending home sales. Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy” (to Aug. 29)

97

AceTraderFx Aug 28: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
28 Aug 2015[/B] [I]02:12GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... The greenback continued to ratchet higher throughout Asian n European sessions yesterday and hit a session high at 121.40 at NY midday as stock mkts globally rallied. Despite a brief pullback to 120.51 in NY afternoon, dlr found renewed buying and rose to 121.23 near NY closing, then marginally higher to 121.31 in Tokyo morning due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index together with the release of upbeat Japan retail sales.

Japan retail sales were reported at 1.6% vs forecast of 1.1%.

Bids are now seen at 120.90/00 and more below at 120.70/80 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 121.50/60, suggesting buying on dips is still favored.

U.S. is set to release a slew of eco. data at 12:30GMT but the focus is on the release of U. of Michigan consumer confidence at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for 93.0 vs prev. reading of 92.9.

[B]Data to be released on Friday:[/B]

UK Gfk consumer confidence, Japan all household spending, CPI, retail sales, Switzerland GDP, France producer prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, U.K. GDP (second release), Italy wage inflation, euro zone business climate, consumer inflation expectation, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, Germany CPI, HICP, Canada producer prices, and U.S. consumption, PCE, personal income, personal consumption, and University of Michigan consumer confidence.

98

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 Sep 2015 [/B] [I]02:00GMT
[/I]
[B]USD/JPY [/B]- … The greenback continued to edge lower yesterday and fell sharply to 119.64 in NY morning after data showed U.S. jobless claims rose to a 3-week high. However, price pared its losses and briefly rebounded to 120.39 on release of upbeat U.S. services PMI before retreating again.
Dlr met renewed selling at 120.19 in Aust. and dropped to 119.70 on position adjustment ahead of today’s crucial U.S. jobs report.

Mkt focus is now solely on the release of U.S. jobs report at 12:30GMT. Street forecast for the NFP is a slight increase to 220K from 215K and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.2% from 5.3%.
An upbeat report would bolster the case for an interest rate hike by the Fed this month.
Conversely a weak number would cloud the view for a September lift off.

Offers are now seen at 120.20/30 and more above at 120.40/50 with stops building up abv there whilst initial bids are noted at 119.30/40, suggesting further choppy trading is envisaged ahead of European open.

99

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
07 Sep 2015[/B] [I]00:53GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Although the greenback opened slightly lower in NZ today, price staged a rebound to 119.31 at Asian open.

However, renewed selling there due to increased concerns that Fed won’t hike its rate in September meeting following the release of poor NFP data together with early fall in Nikkei-225 index pressured the pair lower and dlr dropped to 118.80.

Trading is likely to be relatively thin today due to U.S. labour market holiday. Some offers are seen at 119.20/30 and more above at 119.40/50 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 118.50/60, suggesting choppy trading is envisaged till European open.

100

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
08 Sep 2015[/B] [I]02:30GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Despite finding some support at 119.22 in Australia today and rebounding to 119.53 at Asian open due to an upward revision in Japan's Q2 GDP figure together with initial rise in Nikkei-225 index, the greenback met renewed selling and dropped to 119.16 in Tokyo morning.

Since there is no major eco. data from U.S. today, trading volume is likely to remain thin with some offers noted at 119.40/50 and more above at 119.60/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are seen at 118.80/90, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

101

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
09 Sep 2015[/B] [I]01:44GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Although the greenback retreated from yesterday's European high at 120.23 to 119.66 in NY morning, renewed buying lifted the pair and dlr rebounded to 120.02 in NY afternoon.

Price continued to trade with a firm bias ahead of Asian open and ratcheted higher to 120.36 in Tokyo morning due to the rally 3%+ rally in Nikkei-225 index.

Bids have now been raised to 119.90/00 and more below at 119.70/80 with stops building up above there whilst initial offers are noted at 120.50/60, suggesting consolidation with upside bias would be seen ahead of European open.

More on previous comments by BoJ member Shirai. Reuters reported that the central bank has maintained a positive interest rate on excess reserves parked at the BOJ because a negative rate may harm the intermediary function of financial institutions.

Shirai, speaking at a panel discussion in Brussels on Tuesday, said the possibility of cutting the rate on excess reserves could not be ruled out but such a move should be properly discussed taking into account the differences in market structures around the world.
He, in a text of the speech issued on Wednesday, also said that once a rising price trend takes hold from the latter half of the current fiscal year to next March, inflation expectations would head gradually towards 2%.
He also said that it is important to keep accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery, with the feasibility of lowering interest paid on excess reserves can’t be denied but such a policy should be properly discussed taking into account different market structures in the world.

102

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
10 Sep 2015[/B] [I]00:30GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Dlr fell ahead of Asian open due to renewed buying of Yen on risk aversion following downbeat Japanese data.

Reuters reported earlier Japanese machinery orders unexpectedly fell for a 2nd straight month in July, fuelling concerns that weak business investment could undermine a recovery from an economic contraction in the 2nd quarter.

Core machinery orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming 6 to 9 months, fell 3.6% in July, the Cabinet office data showed on Thursday. That followed a 7.9% month-on-month decline in June and were far worse than a 3.7% increase expected by economists.

The weak data comes as a recent run of soft indicators cast doubt on the Bank of Japan’s optimism that a steady economic recovery will help bring inflation to its 2% goal by around September 2016, keeping the bank under pressure to act.

Sluggish spending by firms and persistent weakness in private consumption and exports add to worries about slowing growth in China - Japan’s biggest trading partner - which has unnerved global investors.

103

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
11 Sep 2015[/B] [I]01:49GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... The pair swung wildly in hectic trading on Thursday. Dlr staged a recovery from yesterday's 119.98 low (AUS) initially and spiked to session highs of 121.34 on Blooomberg headlines ruling LDP lawmaker Kozo Yamamoto (speaking in an interveiw with BLP) said the BoJ's October 30 meeting would be "good opportunity" for further easing.

Despite subsequent choppy sideways swings in European morning, dlr’s broad-based weakness near European close pressured price to 120.46 before moving higher to 120.97 at Asian open today due to renewed cross-selling in yen.

Looks like consolidation is in store as offers are tipped at 121.00/10 and more above with stops above 121.35.
However, more selling interest is reported below daily res at 121.74.
On the downside, some bids are touted at 120.60-50 with stops below 120.40, suggesting consolidation with downside bias is in store.

[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Germany CPI and HICP, France current account, Italy industrial output, Eurogroup meeting, U.S. PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and Federal budget.

105

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
16 Sep 2015[/B] [I]01:06GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... In total stark contrast to yesterday's initial weakness in Asia, dlr maintains a firm undertone in early Wednesday's trading.

Despite Tuesday’s intra-day weakness in Asia and then selloff to 119.40 in Europe following BoJ Governor Kuroda’s upbeat forecast of the Japanese economy at post-BoJ rate meeting press conference, short-covering lifted the pair and dlr later rallied in New York as an upward revision in the U.S. retail sales sent U.S. bond yields and the Dow higher, price climbed back to as high as 120.49.

Looks like said yesterday’s 119.40 low would hold until Thursday’s FOMC announcement and dlr may well ratchet higher from here after initial consolidation.
Bids are noted at 120.20-00 area and more below with stops reported at 119.80.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 120.55/65 and more above with stops above 120.85, however, more selling interest is reported at 121.00

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday:[/B]

New Zealand current accounts, Australia Westpac leading index, Japan BoJ monthly economic survey, UK average earnings, claimant count unemployment change, ILO unemployment rate, Eurozone inflation, labour cost, Switzerland ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. CPI, weekly earnings, NAHB housing market index, net long-term flows.

106

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
17 Sep 2015[/B] [I]01:39GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... The greenback pares yesterday's cross-inspired gain from 120.11 (Europe) to 120.73 in New York despite tame U.S. inflation data as broad- based rise in global equities boosted risk appetite even market is nearly evenly split whether the Fed will start its rate hike cycle at its closely watched FOMC policy meeting later today.

Despite initial firmness at Tokyo open, selling emerged at 120.67 and knocked price to 120.43, suggesting consolidation below Wednesday’s 120.73 high would continue.
Offers are tipped at 120.65/75 and more above with stops above 120.85. However, more selling interest is reported at 121.00/10.
Initial bids are noted at 120.40/30 with stops touted below 120.10.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday:[/B]

New Zealand GDP, Japan trade reports, Switzerland 3-month target LIBOR rate, Italy trade balance, UK retail sales, U.S. building permits, current account, housing starts, Philly Fed business index, and Federal funds target rate.