(ALMOST) Perfect Swing Trading using Trendlines

Well, I got scared when it started dropping immediately and got out. Now I see this morning that it would have hit my TP which was at a .618 (1.9115) from the previous swing high. I guess I’m learning this stuff…slowly but surely.

I was in at 1.9000 and I had a TP of 70 and quickly hit that. One suggestion I would say on this xx/NZD pair, I like to have SL at -100 and the TP from 50-80, depending on where your entry is on the trendline. See if that helps :slight_smile:

Now is a good time to think about bracket orders. (Stop entry)

all GBP pairs have triangled in and are very close to forced breakout.

If GBPNZD goes below 1.89000, it will be pretty incredible move, I think.

If if breaks above 1.91000, then I think it will be enough of a breakout to continue moving up for hundreds of pips.

Give it a bit more time…the price is really testing 1.90000 a lot…very unusual for this pair.

I’m tightening my SL on my E/N I was up earlier 40 or so pips on the short, now down by about 10… same with my G/N. Thank you for the reminder btw!

just remember to make numbers.

if your TP is 50 pips and your SL is 100, you need to win about 67% of time to breakeven.

EURNZD is preparing to start plunge.

That move is in line of main trend. Also fundamentals helps. While AUD and NZD are stronger, EUR remains weak, the same for GBP.

I would expect a big drop if the price closes below 1.5775, with initial stop at 1.5975 and first target at 1.5550.

While I was writing this comment, the EURNZD made a HUGE move up of about 100 pips in only 15 seconds. I think that candle is going to create a bearish pin bar when it closes.

Well, this is the news: New Zealand 4Q Consumer Price Index (YoY) increase to 0.9% vs 0.8%

The issue was consumer price index (CPI). The economists were expecting 1.2% and it was 0.9%, well below the estimates. That caused that very huge move in seconds. On NZDUSD the move was about 80 pips in less than 5 minutes, with NZD plunging. That caused that big spike on EURNZD.

Yep…NZD news is always way different than expected and creates large moves…good for us, if we’re on the right side…my 1.9050 entry was triggered, SL at 1.8950…It did break the triangle, too.

I was out of the trades hehehehe, but I was long on EURJPY and that move make some benefit to the euro pairs :slight_smile:

But I’m still bearish on EURNZD, and I’m looking how it is stalled just at my +1sd @15m channel. I recommend moving the stops to BE at the first signal of retracement.

I had an order at NU 0.8320, and it hasn’t been reached :frowning: …yet. -this pair I’d like to long-
at GN I had a short order which hasn’t been reached yet too, for short.
and stopped out EN short. now I have some emotional support why I will short NU at a point above 0.85

Sadly I was on the wrong side of EUR/NZD. Basically just like the NZD/USD I just got robbed 100 pips :frowning:

I was waiting for the breakout…apparently this was it, lol. But will this news item sustain the breakout or do you think it’ll drop back down? perhaps to 1.91 and then float back up from there?

In my opinion it’s a breakout of triangle and the support still stands, so I think price will move up…my stop is below 1.90000

Don’t think that NU is a short. This move has only 1 day effect, not enough to short NU. On the other side, shorting GN or EN are better ideas.

Well, I caught 30 on the way down after the news break and got back in when I saw the reversal (which happened to be at .618 rertracement of the massive upswing).

Currently +37 on the new upswing. Aiming for the 1.93 mark…anyone else have a different TP?

I was thinking 1.9265 but your projection sounds reasonable.

If you draw your fib from the breakout high to the last low (so from around 1.92 down to around 1.8980), the 1.618 retracement is at 1.9325. I’m figuring 1.93 is a psychological limit. It’s already bounced off of 1.945 (didn’t quite hit 1.9150), and is dipping way down. I’m hoping it doesn’t tank big time before climbing again. 1.92 might be a psychological limit as well.

are we thinking on a buy here shortly to take over the weekend? or we thinking further tanked?

Well, I got hit hard. I just lost 150 =( Next time I’m going to follow my MacFibo rules for entry and exit. I haven’t given up on this pair, but I need to change the way I trade it.

Price is staying right down against support, so, since it came right back down after yesterday’s bounce up, now even lower, it really looks like sellers are trying to break through…thing is it’s 450 pips down to unprecedented territory, and who knows what will happen if it breaks down there.

Look at a monthly chart for GBPNZD…You’ll notice it’s one big triangle and we are getting at the very point…at some time in the near future price will be forced to do something outside the bounds of this triangle, so be patient.