Hi guys, would i be right in assuming that bulls will only start to get excited about the cable once the 1.8900 zone is breached?
That’s certainly a level which will hold some intent kagein. A lot will depend on how far south this things decides to go.
After that, players will be looking for a basing or reaction low to work off. They’ll start to feed into longs once they obtain some confirmation that a potential bottom or base has begun to bed in.
You can get a clearer view of that type of action via your 60 & 240 minute timeframes. That’s where it’ll begin to show.
Higher highs & lows + any solid range behavior holding up to scrutiny will encourage feeder (compound) stakes along the way.
thanks ray for inviting me to this thread. it is a great thread! here are some of my analysis for the GBP/USD pair. any comments and critics are welcome.
the forum does not let me post 3 big charts, dun know why…so i have to make a new post.
After going through all my charts, I have another question? How do all the regular posters in this thread define a s/r level has been broken. For me, I will use two green/red candles that close above or below a s/r level to define it has been broken. Am I correct to make that assumption?
You are if it works for you.
Only you will know if that scenario plays out successfully enough to warrant using it consistently.
If it fits alongside whatever else you use to navigate your way around the technical arena, then you�ve got the makings of a reliable trigger.
Trouble with comparisons Ray is that no two traders will marry up exactly with their specific trade preparation, execution, aims/expectations or risk profiles.
The generic observations of technical levels & zones will, more often than not, match up on a regular basis, but it�s how each individual plays that information that will differ.
If the idea of wrapping a strategy or two around the concept of support-resistance and/or supply-demand appeals, then you have the possible foundation right there to build a game plan or two, which will suit your personal style & psychological tolerance.
The dialogue, exchange of views & examples on here are aimed at stirring up the grey cells & encouraging folks to explore the content in their own fashion.
Some will discard it, others will flirt with it & decide it�s not for them and a few more will pick up the outline & fill their own blanks in along the way.
We post our own interpretations & views on how we see the playing field from our viewfinder. So too do the other contributors. Occasionally they�ll be mixed conclusions, some will identify certain levels & zones which others haven�t even considered. But that will usually be as a direct result of that individuals specific aims, timeframe preference & risk tolerance.
Use the outline & basic principles of what�s being presented here & see if you can build something which you feel comfortable with. Demo it & evaluate it on a regular basis.
You can post up your examples here so that folks can offer their views & comments. But try put your own stamp on it & see how you go.
GBP/USD is in a downfall again. I have marked out the relevant s/r levels on my chart:
The resistance level is set at 1.8002 and support level is set at 1.7765. Now i will wait and see which level the price will go.
Ok, so now you’ve identified the general bias & you got your personal upper & lower markers, what are you planning to do when & if price arrives at either of them?
Remember the important principles that Tess & Jos have constantly tickboxed throughout the thread? :-
If the Inside & Outside bar is your primary execution method, then that will form the core of your analysis preparation.
Your trading plan should include an �all options� consideration.
- What will I do if price continues in the dominant direction
- What will I do if price fails to continue in the dominant direction
- What will I do if price ranges or idles into a consolidation phase?
Around that core will be your decisions on the appropriate risk you�re willing to take, money management deployment (trade sizes etc) & the type of trade management structure you�re looking to adopt (do you subscribe to �an all in, all out� and/or trailing method or maybe a scaling in & out procedure).
Most of those criteria will be directly influenced by the specific strategy or strategies you utilize for the market conditions you operate under.
They�re all important ingredients of your trading structure or plan. You should be very aware of what you�re going to use & why.
If you have a clear, simple structure to work with it will minimize the potential for second guessing yourself. It will also install discipline & confidence.
Once you got a workable plan to operate from, you can then spend your valuable time concentrating & focusing on honing & firming up your technical skills.
It�s all in the preparation. If you get that sorted then it�s one thing less to worry about when the trade opportunity comes knocking.
Cover all your bases, that way nothing can surprise you or bite you on the ass when you�re least expecting it.
This is Jimmys trade idea from earlier in the day getting exactly to target for a greater than 3R return. Not a bad 3 hrs or so work!
i missed this trade. was sleeping juz now. wat a waste. =)
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Well Zen just wait for the next opportunity. The break has occurred so will we get a retest as a possibility to get short. We are a long way down for the day but the comments from the UK treasury over the weekend were so bearish (even made the Australian business section of our daily) that there could yet be more in this. Remember just look for the low risk entry. Of course if still short from Jimmys idea then its all looking good
Is there anywhere that lists the daily averages of currencies?
cheers4now
Average True Range (ATR) always comes in handy for this information, and is typically available with most charting packages.
I took a trade at the GU.
An OB formed which resisted a trendline and close below the resistance level.
I exited the trade at a support level of 1.7800.
That’s well spotted Ray 
Just be careful how you play these when the environment slows down a little & the psychology isn’t so stretched.
In aggressive one-way traffic such as we’re witnessing recently, it’s not uncommon for the majors to print excessive (outside) intra-day range measures.
Today the Cable has printed 130% of it’s average days range, to the 1.7781 lows. The p/b you took allowed a measured (1:2) risk reward play if you timed it ok & in this type of scenario, is just about a no brainer play.
In more sedate periods of activity you could get caught on the blind side as New York desks come to the table & possibly reverse the directional flows on order driven trade.
That’s when it pays to take note of the average daily moves & where the percentages are at as NY comes into play.
Jimmy’s 1min-15min combo visuals would also have assisted pretty fine on your continued short trade though 
Does the ADR refer to the range in each session or overall ?
It’s the 24 hour timezone George.