Glad you found the information of benefit Jon.
All the best with your progress. If you got any queries or questions on any of the material feel free to ask away.
cheers Jimmymac and all… I feel most welcome here.
I think he was after some feedback on levels & bias etc on the Pound/Yen.
Obviously this pair is in a deep entrenchment, bouncing back & about to close the week at the 1995 lows.
It�s also printing an inside week, & that bounce off the all time lows came on the back of a Daily hammer/bullish engulfing combo (Fri 23/Mon 26) technical signal.
Now approaching & stalling at a minor hourly support-resistance zone, it�s decision time for this pair.
That upside level at c135.80 is last weeks high & should prices attract support at current levels, that marker upper level & the corresponding stops bunched beyond 136.0 will generate aggressive participation.
1st line support resides back at the midweek range resistance channel & will be the initial test on this tentative move back up.
Risk aversion/risk acceptance will dictate this pair near-term & you’ll require to keep a keen eye on Yen news (flows).
This pair has rally up for the last two days of last week. It had managed to close above 129 to 130 region which is a support on the monthly chart. Like what Jocelyn had mentioned in her previous post, 135 region is a possible resistance for this pair. If 135 region is breached I will be looking at 141 region. However I am still towards the bear side for this pair.
GY broke below 129. The next support I will be looking at is 126 region where last friday low is.
Last night positive data seems to make GY, EU and GU bullish. However I am still not too willing to take the bull side. Unless GY manages to clear 130 region, or else I will remain bearish on GY.
BOJ statement seems to produce a retracments in GY. The tokyo session seems to be hovering around 128.25 to 126. 70 region, my two immediate support and resistance region. Break of either region will get me into a position. Maybe it is just me that is stubborn, I still think that GY has a bearish outlook.
I agree with your bearish view on this pair Ray.
As Jocelyn noted further up, 135.80 is the axis on GY & will undoubtedly harbour decent tranches of profit stops all the way back to 141.50, the 2 lower high swings on this move down.
Yesterday’s volumes (across the board) were absolutly dire. In fact they mirrored Xmas Eve activity for most of the day, due mainly to the extreme weather conditions in London restricting personnel from reaching their offices.
That definitely won’t help conditions, & price moves tend to get exaggerated in low liquidity traffic.
Traders are also jostling for value ahead of the European interest rate meetings being held this week.
Existing profits will be pared/trimmed out & stops will be adjusted to account for any surprise moves or unexpected rhetoric from Trichet or King. Again, that will cause choppy price adjustments as sell orders are bought back & re-adjusted.
Firms will keep their (new) powder dry until later in the week & large bets will be few & far between. That naturally knocks onto tight, aimless range trading as bargain hunters or small speculative players ping-pong bets inside range extremes.
it seems longer term target would be around 119ish but on the 1 hour it is definatly moving sideways going into ny session. however price did hit the 61% level and is hovering around 50% now.
Ray and Tess thanks for the analysis
Hi Tess,
How do you tell that order volumes were low? g/u dropped 200 pips from london open toward 12:00 gmt
all the guys here have a pretty varied, cross section contact base of desks & ex-colleagues both here (in UK) & Stateside that we speak to on a regular basis during a typical weeks activity kagein.
you get a good feel/flavor & representation of the quality of participation on certain pairs at particular levels. It also sometimes highlights any irregular patterns of (volume) activity.
for instance, whether large spec models are on the sniff at certain zones or specialist desks (hedge fund/real money funds/sovereign accounts etc) are buying/selling tranches of a specific currency at tiered levels.
it doesn�t really give us (or anyone else who utilizes similar info) any major advantage over other market players, merely helps explain & confirm events which are maybe out of the ordinary or attracting a lot of heat at a level or zone.
average daily range activity won�t necessarily be unduly affected if volume traffic is either below or above average.
in fact, lower than average volume can influence price action just as easily as average volume, especially if it pushes price toward a level which harbours large bunches of stop activity such as limit orders, stop buy/sell orders etc.
you can usually tell the quality or clout of the participation in a pair by the way in which price gets influenced. Official money (Fed/Central Bank activity), real money funds & wholesale desk order flow feeding into a level will affect the strength & longevity of a move.
of course I coulds never answer for Tess but i think the only 2 things that you can do to guage volume is to;
A. Look at futures volume to get an idea what money is doing. Also if equity markets are thin than I think that will invariably affect forex due to the fact that foreign investors have to convert there money in order to trade. for example if the djia is rallying then there will be more foreign money going in and therefore higher volumes in dollar trading. the oposite would be true if the dow was down then foreign investors would likely pull there money out and that would affect volume too
B.Also another thing I think wqould be a good indication would be the Average Daily Range coz I would have to guess that volume and volatilty are related.
But keep in mind that I am extremly new at this fundamental stuff and I could be very wrong. It really is just my best guess
average daily range activity won�t necessarily be unduly affected if volume traffic is either below or above average.
so my point B sounds like it is wrong
Thanks JM your input is very much appreciated, John
I wouldn�t lose too much sleep over it if I were you
thing is John, you can only control that which you have a direct influence on.
everyone out there has different aims & expectations.
the common objective, regardless of account sizes, experience or knowledge, is to control & minimize downside risk, whilst positively managing upside potential.
as long as your template(s) return appropriate PnL variables, you�re on your way.
Thanks for the explanation
George
Another positive figure out from the US side pushing GY bullish again.(but I am still not convinced.) But early Frankfurt session just pushed GY down again. This pair is wild. I will look at 126 region, 128 region and 129 region.
Due to the increasing volume of posts in this thread, & in order to keep it manageable for folks to navigate, peruse & re-visit, [B]it has been decided to lock/close it.[/B]
[B]Admin will close it to new posts some time over the next 24 hours.[/B]
It can be rather daunting, especially for newcomers, to work thru so much information, particularly if they�re not very familiar with technical details.
[B]So, a [U]new thread [/U][/B](linked below) has been started to continue the theme of this one.
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/19076-technical-templates-2-a.html#post88636
Same content & info, just different location!