It depends on the item. At the moment few news trades are really doing that much outside of interest rates. If already in and comfortable I will ride it through but I would be less likely to enter in the 30 mins before news and would rather see what happens on the release. The ideal is for the news to temporarily push you back against the trend to give you a chance to get into the trend at a better price
Been reading a couple of threads within this section this morning, & Geppy has come up in conversation, encouraging conflicting views whether it’s in buy or sell mode at current levels.
Healthy debate is what this game is all about, & how one person or group analyze & prepare their trades is of no interest to me. Conflicting views make markets, so…long live opposing views, I say
Personally, I see Geppy as a short term sell, given the failure to make fresh highs on the recent move outside the month long range zone (228.20 - 234.55).
Mid to longer term?? That greatly depends on it’s behaviour as prices begin to threaten the recent 1st line support zone here (237.50-70).
The activity here will offer more clues to it’s bias in my view.
238.80, it’s near term swing high, will be the next potential lower top on the short term timeframes, & failure to hurdle back beyond this marker will begin to weigh on Geppy.
236.50-70, is definitely the real crux however, as that zone represents critical short-term support on the higher low leg up thru the aforementioned range break.
For those not currently positioned long this pair, maybe a shorter term outlook is more appropriate until it begins to offer further (concrete) directional bias
The short-term sellers on this pair continue to enjoy the ride, with prices so far being resisted at 50% of the day’s move (a popular level for Fib watchers), on Geppy’s attempts to re-assert a bullish kickback.
As long as price remain north of 236.50-70 the higher low step (& the current longs from further back) stays genuine.
Aggressive shorters will begin staged encashments (& look to throw in the towel) on a sustained shift thru 238.30-65, as this will negate the lower high momentum on the intraday charts.
So, money is still being made by both camps inside this wide channel.
No need to begin waving the white flags from the mid-term bulls yet, & no real requirement for the short-term bears to give ground either.
If you got your dual strats well sussed, there’s money to be made playing these instruments from both sides of the track
So, the $$'s were banked from the ‘fast money’ brigade & prices steadied shy of the key line Bull supports at 236.50-70.
A case of, as you were…prices now back threatening the near term resistance up here at the weeks highs.
The overnight Tokyo shift maintained the higher low push from late New York trade, adding impetus to attack & push thru the upper ceiling.
If the momentum takes hold & attracts further interest at this resistance zone, it exposes the next tier ceiling zones of 241.50 & 243.0
The lower levels are clearly marked for those intent on playing any appropriate pullback ‘short’ runs via the faster timeframes.
I wanted to document this trade I took today on
EUR/JPY, it just illustrates the precarious nature
of trading IMO.
There is an inside bar (IB) & the stochs have just
turned but just above 20, also the candle is in the
middle of the bollinger bands, there is also a minor
resistance line at 165.40ish.
I decided to take the trade at 165.31, with a S/L
at 165.16, T/P is normally +45 pips.
What I am trying to emphasise is how close to my
S/L this trade came, within 2 pips. As you can see
it went on to gain +78 pips, but however much we
(wish I had gone for EY as well!!)
Wish I had gone for G/Y as well. :lol:
Bloody good fred this!
tonymand, jocelyn and tess…do you look out for candlestick formations a la Steve Nison? I’ve got hold of a PDF of one of his books and am going to give it a butchers over the weekend.
I have got 2 of his books and there is a lot of good material. A few things though. Candlesticks give you the same information as an OHLC bar chart its just that in some cases it is more visually appealing. If you look at my charts as posted you will see I use line, bar and candlestick depending on the application and aim. Candlesticks like anything else on their own mean little. However if they are occuring at critical levels then they can tell you a whole heap about what the crowd is up to. A combination therefore of candles (or bars whichever you prefer) and the larger scale action as shown by the levels on different timeframes is very revealing. After all James IB/OB technique is at its simplest a particular candle pattern. I think you will find Nison readable and sensible and I have not found a better source of information on candles so hope you enjoy
Just to take this a stage further these 2 charts are from GU on 3 Oct. What do you think happened next and why? Was this enough information to trade off ie a candle and a level. What other information (if any) would you need
hey there DDreamer,
thanks for the reply and i hope am not bothering you too much.
i ve tried out the suggestions you gave on s/r, it’s working alright but i still find myslef in limbo when price is staggering inbetween two s/r lines, now am thinkgi, in such set-up, won’t it be good to combine s/r with trendlines or other indicators?:rolleyes:
i mean, what other indicators do do you combine with these to improve the quality of your trading decisions?
also, the peak and trough u talked about, that really gotr me interested, can you provide more links to where i can download materials on peak and trogh…i just want to leart the nitty gritty of it all.
thaks really, i appreciate your time
I recently looked on youtube for drawing trendlines and fib lines.Just type in forex and it brings up some little training videos.Somewhat helpful when you got the visual aspect to learn also. Good trading!
Heres a read for you Black Pips…
Thanks again tonymand
but i still find myslef in limbo when price is staggering inbetween two s/r lines,
Tony has touched on this in his posts & I would also like to
bring up the problem of overtrading.
If the candles are in between S/R you could always attempt to
use James Ib strategy, but we are looking at price action
around significant S/R lines/areas, therefore as Tess has said
another place in the market is “flat” (you are in a better position
being out wishing you were in, that in wishing you were out)
Do not be too eager to make that losing trade, wait for the
time when the market is in your favor, then let the market prove
you wrong. With s/l s at your optimum R/R, I use -16 + the spread
( somebody on another forum said I was trading noise, I made 200+
pips last week trading noise. :lmao: ) with 3:1 obviously the 3 is
open to discussion, get to 1:1 then make your decision.
won’t it be good to combine s/r with trendlines or other indicators?
Yep if that is in your “system” or you want it to be, do it,
Tony has a lot of posts using trendlines also Fibo, read up on
it & incorporate it, myself I have not yet been able to make them
work for me.
Also take a look through these, pay attention to
Peaks and Troughs - by Martin J. Pring.
Classic test of the break out level. Need a reasonable entry idea. There is an ib but stochs still down. In the end used the break above the consolidation area and have moved the stop to be so hopefully this will get away. Confirmation was provided for this trade with GY breaking to a new high at the same time
Haven’t quite got the hang of the longer-term trade yet. Still like to be out at the end of the day. It’s something I’m working on though. Judging from your posts, Tony, it’s something you’ve added to your armoury relatively recently - when you leave a trade on overnight, where do you generally put your stops (BE for the trade overall, BE for the part you’re carrying over, or do you simply look for suitable S and R levels)?
Hi Mr A, yes I look for the most obvious SR level. Psychologically I am not finding it as easy as I thought to let things run so yes you are right it is a work in progress for me at the moment.
1 win, 1 loss tonight so far. However as a win is 2R and loss is 1R this has been profitable. The key to the strategy is the assessment of momentum running up to the entry levels
Yeah, & it’s healthy to adopt views. We all play them as we see them, & you protected your remaining stakes, so no harm done.
There’s only a 200 pip range on this one, & 2.0365 is proving to be a pretty neat fulcrum. That really is the axis on longs/shorts for this range play.
Stops either side (below for longs…above for shorts?) of that line would test the honesty of price as it attempts to break either side of the upper-lower range lines?
Like you say, we each adopt our own personal choices on how to play these differing market conditions, but I like to take it back to basics when looking to play any prolonged position, whether range or trend.
ie: if I’m going long, such as this particular trade, & executing via the 5/15min combo frames, then I continue to observe the [I][B]peak-trough [/B][/I]behaviour (if it exists) as I would if the position was a potential longer term swing trade.
Just look at your 15 and/or 5min frame to quickly assess the behaviour since your entry.
Is it continuing to conform to said behaviour (higher high, higher low)?? If so, then where’s the justification for cutting it?
And where would be the likely (sensible) zone for hiding your remaining stops?
It’s exactly the same tick list for managing your trades. Let the [B]market[/B] tell you you’ve got your positioning wrong!!
Yes thanks Jocelyn. A combination of an unavoidably late entry and my never ending tendency to be close with my stop. Just to add to the frustration of this trade I couldnt find a way back in though maybe could have gone off the temporary USD strength following the Empire figs. Now contemplating the double top but not going to do anything about it. Have clearly not been ‘in tune’ with this pair tonight so will leave alone. I am still sat well back on the EY so hopefully that will give me some cheer
The London & NY activity has given us a clear minor swing boundary to work with into the close.
2.0385 to 2.0430, this 0.5 cent clip can maybe assist in determining whether this trade is worth hanging onto in tomorrows action?
Obviously as London shuts it’s doors for the day, the volumes are going to dramatically tail off. I would expect therefore, prices to slip back & threaten the fulcrum line @ 2.0365.
If the demand is genuine, then they’ll manage to hold prices up here & look to maintain the higher-low behaviour.
Any drifting, & lower high behaviour below this minor s&r level here @ 2.0430, wouldn’t really instill confidence about holding fresh longs, unless you’d engaged lower down near 2.0270-90.
It’s all about aims & expectations. And in amongst your aims sits the risk, position size & trade management parameters.
You can only realistically work with what you got in the present tense, yeah?
No good shooting for the months highs, trailing unrealistic stops if you only climbed into the trade @ c2.0365. You’re not allowing enough margin for error.
Entry is where you begin considering your potential options. If you’re late, you reduce those options.