hey Tonymand,
What sort of system do you use? Do you just basically look at the price action with the candles and S&R zones?Or do you use a couple of indicators as well?
I have very little on my chart actually. I have a 60SMA as a guide but frankly price direction is clear most of the time. I have a 5 chart set up displaying daily, 4H and 1H line charts and 5 min and 15 min candlesticks. I will fling a fib on and off if I am looking to judge the relevance of a level and I run a stochastic on the bottom for divergence. My main entry criteria would be a relevant candle pattern at a key higher timeframe SR level. If divergence exists at the same time then so much the better. I am currently looking at how taking only certain signals would work particularly exhaustion spikes, tweezers and inside bars when they occur at a key level with divergence. The question I am posing to myself is how often do these occur, what is the win:loss and is it better than the more general signals I take and what is a reasonable R return
Straightforward pattern play this afternoon. I highlighted this pattern this morning showing indecision. I have marked the 3 possible entry points. The first is the most aggressive but following the failed rechallenge at 2 then an entry at 3 is more conservative and lower risk
Not sure what this is all about. In a major move like this I trail behind the last completed candle. Sorry about this chart but my MT4 is down
Exited all at 235.07. Always difficult to know what to do after such a move. Whilst there could be a big retrace there could equally be consolidation so thats me done for the week, catch you all next week
ok stuck again i was following and have read all the articles on divergence, cant seem to understand “tweezers” very well. someone explain please thanks joanne.
Simply equal tops or bottoms on successive candles
Hello there,
just had a question regarding S&R zones.What type of signs you looking for when youclose to a zone? ?How long do you wait to jump in.In other words when and what makes you confident enough to say ok This is definatly going to bounce off this support line.I am in now!I know candlestick patterns help,and so forth.But how far after the bounce do you get in?
Hard to answer because each situation is different. I need some sort of confirmation but if you wait too long the train goes without you! On Friday for instance I didnt expect GY to get back above resistance based on the higher timeframes and so after the trendline break, retest and then new low I had more than enough to go on
How about this example right here tonymand?EUR/AUD 162.25.Sorry I tried to upload photo with no luck.anyone know how to do that also?I thought it was bouncing off this and lost quite a few pips on this one…lucky it is just demo.But how would have you played this scenario?
Its not a pair I normally trade but have just had a look at it. Remember also its easy to be wise in retrospect. Agree it is an important daily level but is being approached like a speed train! I have got the SR level at 1.6220 and it goes straight through. There is a minor rechallenge on the 15 mins that could get you long though I would anticipate a stronger challenge to come from the higher timeframes. That level was the second fib extension on the hourly so I can see why you would look for a short but it never came. Also this level has 3 times turned the trend back but 3 times gone through so its important but a 50:50 shot. If it now retraces and holds you could get long, could do that about now on the 15 min but we are well into the move so I would wait. To answer your question if there had been a trendline break, divergence, double top ie something to tell me that this was going to turn back I might have gone for it. Alternatively wait for the first lower peak to form on the way down as another possibility. Also note that in July it barreled through this level as well. At the end of the day nothing is certain. I find I get about 2/3 right and of course thats what the stop is for
I have two questions.One, when you say your looking for divergence,double top,are you primarily looking at the hour chart for it’s reliabilty or do you feel you can get a quicker jump on it from say a 15 minute chart?and my second question is.When your applying your fibs,do you have a set number of pips you try to spread the fibs to.I know I was reading this one guys system,and he would have at least a 40 pip spread on a 15 minute chart and like 150 pip spread on the 4 hour.Thanks again tony
Primarily off the 15 mins although there will be less false starts from the higher frames. I dont get too hooked up about fib but agree that 30 pips plus is more meaningful. Following on our discussion last night and after you pointed out the key level on EURAUD I had a little flutter on it. You can see the H1 pullback and test that I talked about and then a very inviting 15 min entry as per James system. This is what I mean by a low risk trade.
Just wanted to follow up on jlmac questions. Remember not all trades work out, thats the nature of the beast. In terms of patterns these are all good looking possibilities. I didnt take either, the first because it was against the major trend and the second because it was outside my regular trading hours but they both have considerable merit occurring around the higher timeframe support. Trade 2 occurs at the MA and moving back in line with the major trend so would have been on this if awake and if in my regular trading time. As you can see on the 3rd chart there is a possible further entry occurring now on the new low depending on how you execute these opportunities and remember with regards to that you need strategies that consider both the continuation of the break and the possibility of a bounce back at what is a strong spport given it held 3 times yesterday
Everyone has their favoured set ups and I dont believe any one is necessarily better than another its just what you become familiar with and seems to work in the instruments you trade. These charts are both from last night and you can see how in each case the 60SMA helps you to identify low risk trading opportunities in line with the dominant trend
Tonymand, Thank you for the reply. When you talk about the pullback on the 1 hour chart,you are pretty sure it is going to go back up,because of the candle patterns on the 15min. and with the 60 MA,correct?That is about all your using to put this assumption together right? Thanks again
Tonymand,I tried to upload chart,I believe it worked.What I have here is the USD/CAD.Does this look like a good place to go short? It is playing around an area of resistance,and candles are showing pattern for reversal,but the 60MA…???What is your take on this pair at this moment?
usdcadchart.bmp (527 KB)
Pretty much. Its gone through resistance, tested it as support so the most likely course is up
yes you could trade this back to the 60SMA or whatever you use as your profit target. The safer trade though would be the next long off the 60SMA or fib retrace (again whatever you use) as this is a mighty strong uptrend. Until proven otherwise this is no more than a retrace. If it now formed a double top or lower high the we might expect a trend change
As a follow up to post 276. The hammer could lead to an aggressive entry at 1 above it, a more conservative one at 2 following the consolidation, there is an obvious profit take at 3 and a possible further upmove to be signalled at 4 though this is much less clear cut
