Anyone thinks the same with me? EURGBP will go down to finish the cycle?

Trading Discussion
104

Hello traders!

Since the last video I made on this pair, we have seen it trying to break below the significant level of 0.70…

The end of last week (Thursday-Friday) and today (Wednesday) we have had red candles pushing below this level,

with Monday and Tuesday staging a brief bounce from about 0.6950 to about 0.7050…

In other words: although the highest retail volume since late April was recorded (on the daily chart) on Thursday last week,

around 400m units (FXCM Real Volume indicator), and it is now fading towards 100m, the overall bear trend and the

price response to volume from last week suggest that the push below 0.70 could be genuine, although price is still very

close to this level to say that it has truly broken it.

The July MPC minutes for the Bank of England did see some references to rate hike as a way to contain rising inflation

risks, but the overall vote to maintain a rate hold was still the usual 9-0 in favour, hence an inconclusive, small-bodied

(almost a Doji) five-minute candle at the time of the release, today (9.30am BST (=GMT +1)), in spite a swell in volume.

News from Greece have all but died down, and the Euro is not recovering much, so this hope for a Pound interest premium

is the only driver in the immediate term for EUR/GBP, as well as the overall bearish trend, which, although ‘oversold’, may

well continue if undisturbed.

105

Well, what a difference two months can make…or can they?

Since my above post, which was written five days after I went short on this pair, I am still short on this pair, even though that break of 0.70 back in July never truly developed into staying below it.

This makes for intersting reading:

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107

This last week EUR/GBP broke out all at once into a first fresh break out above all price ranges smaller than 21 weeks long above the MDMA (200 day moving average) since the last week of October in 2013. That certainly has my eyebrows raised. That has me going long with 4 positions in 4 systems.

Sorry cable.

-Adrian

108

Indeed…

Some interesting thoughts on this topic today:

109

Hi Pip, the Euro imo has about 80 or so pips left in it. I think maybe 7480 before pulling back. I won’t be surprised if it made a play now on the downside seeing the rejection that it got at 136.95 against the Yen. Sterling is under pressure from the Dollar that monetary policy divergence between the US and everyone else is causing issues.

Let’s not delude ourselves… Draghi the QE beast continues to feed the system with cheap money to save a Euro that cannot be saved. Perhaps when the first Russian bomb lands in Turkey the pundits will shout sell. In any case I think longterm the Euro goes down.

110

No breakout yet for the EURGBP, the pair may go into tighter ranges.

111

Spot on, Emerald!

You are right, after leech-like attachment to the 0.73-0.74 for now over a trading month,

EUR/GBP is definitely due to break out of this accumulation/stagnation phase…

I like your idea of a disastrous event necessary to shake this pair out of trading death,

although I would actually hope that Turkey finally finds peace again.

Peace.

112

It is as we thought. Well I did sell this, currently as I stare at my screen I am exactly 103 pips up.

113

Finally breaking below 0.72!!

Screenshot_2015-10-28-18-47-50.jpg394×700 28.1 KB

114

Yes, finally. Bearish trend seems continue.

115

Heading for 0.70 again since the summer attempt at breaking it failed:

Screenshot_2015-11-04-08-08-49.jpg394×700 32 KB

116

Hello again,
after four months (since the 11th July week), EUR/GBP today is getting very close to breaking 0.70 again: this is a very important ‘line in the sand’, round-number level, so it is very much a big moment…

I went short just under 0.70 on 17th July, and have waited this long…a long-term trade like this takes time …As my drawdown reached 500pips, my target now is 1,000 pips, so 0.60.

117

Whatever Draghi is saying in his speech just now, it is creating high selling volume and a matching bearish move on EUR/GBP: could this be the first proper break of 0.70, after four months?

Screenshot_2015-11-20-08-22-24.jpg394×700 26.9 KB

118

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_151203.en.html

Big moves in Euro pairs… Keep your senses sharp!

119

‘Super Mario’ speaking in Italy just now (from 11am, GMT):

ECB’s Super Mario skips and jumps his way to the rostrum at the top of the hour

Watch for EUR/GBP reactions - currently loitering around 0.7225…

120

Draghi’s comments push EUR/GBP sharply to the upside to over 0.7250:

ECB will reach inflation target without undue delay: Draghi | Reuters

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…this is the reaction:

Screenshot_2016-01-21-13-38-20.jpg394×700 28.1 KB

I am pleased :slight_smile:

123

Sadly, not much has happened since my last post: the pair has been stuck around the 0.76 mark, with no momentum either way …