Hi cloudy,
I’ve been on elliott wave’s website for more info and here is an analysis I’ve just done on E/U with an entry based off it on my demo account.
Everything up to “Y” is elliott wave’s analysis, everything from there is mine based again on the simple zig zag correction.
What do you think?
Edit; I wish now I’d taken the trade in my live account lol. Waiting for the retracement now and then I will, trying to re-coup some losses yesterday.
Hello, I’ll be gladly following this thread as I also recently started studying Elliott Wave. I just finished reading Prechters book and had a go at counting GBP/USD. I added the 4 hour chart to this reply. My take on it is that the abc correction was a 3-3-5 flat and that we’re now in wave (3) of the new impulse.
The B wave of the flat didnt really go very close to the end of (5) like it does in the textbook, but © did end nicely in the area of the preceding wave (4).
My first actual wave count, hopefully more to come.
Hi Danielb, Welcome aboard.
After my post I obviously got it wrong! I was today coming round to thinking of a flat but haven’t yet got round to testing it out, I think your chart seems more plausible.
I am wondering when the big drop will come in that elliott wave hint on happening in their video update they are promoting for subscribers. Too much outlay for me though.
Hopefully we can all bounce ideas around as I find elliott wave principles hard to grasp (low brain cell count, lol).
Welcome Daniel! It’s always great to see outside interest in EWT and I look forward to your contributions and analysis. Great charts by the way guys.
I have to be upfront, after I took a big hit on cable last week I got very frustrated and stepped back from EWT this week. However, now that I have a clear head I’m back in the game, realizing that this is new and of course there will be mistakes.
With that said, I’ve also realized Fiber and Cable probably aren’t the two greatest pairs to start off trying to trade using Wave Theory. I’ve decided I am going to stick with only trading EUR/JPY. If you check out the daily chart you can see very blatant impulses and corrections and I feel this will be a good place to start until I can get more in-touch with the principles and patterns of EWT and can apply them to the more popular majors like cable/fiber that have some very bizarre movements at times, more so I feel than others.
That, and yen pairs typically always trend very smoothly, which is obviously another plus.
The wife is out of town this weekend so I’ll be doing a wave count of EUR/JPY and will post the analysis soon, and hopefully pips will be had next week and losses can be recovered 
That’s a great looking wave count, I’m definitely impressed.
Also, when you post a chart as an image, make sure to also highlight it and then make it a link too so we can click it and get a close up of your counts. Thanks Daniel and keep it up!
Also, for my own state of mind, I’m going to reiterate some basic wave count rules for myself so I don’t get confused and over analyze too much.
First off, I will be identifying waves first from the Daily Charts, which I will call Primary waves.
From each wave I establish on the daily time frames, I will be subdividing into Intermediate waves via the 4H.
Then, soley for entry purposes only and only if the Intermediate count is vague, I will subdivide the Intermediate waves to Minor waves taken from the 1H charts. Basically I’ll be looking for minor corrective waves to enter the market on in the direction of the current 4h wave.
As a day trader I typically don’t like to stay in the market for too long, 2-3 days at most, so I feel this will be a solid strategy and easy to follow and execute.
EURJPY Primary Wave Count
Here is a daily chart for the last year. The end of December 2011 marked the end of a major impulse wave down.
Turning to a corrective formation, price took its first corrective swing upwards and made [A], which is an impulse wave.
Since [A] is bullish impulse wave, [B] will be corrective to [A], and should hold an extremely bearish sentiment, and we should see price move south over the next couple of weeks.
The rules for simple corrective waves are
= Wave A can be a 5 or 3 subwaves
= Wave B can only be 3 subwaves
= Wave C can only be 5 subwaves.
Knowing this, we can see that [A] is indeed a 5 subwave correction, which would mean we more than likely have a zig-zag over the primary, or a standard 5-3-5 corrective pattern.
A zig-zag 5-3-5 is a sharp corrective move, so [B] should be seen to correct at least 50% of [A], possibly up to 80%, and then [C] will begin as a long-term bull move to correct waves [1]-[5], perhaps to eventually test the range of [2].
So at this moment, we are on a primary [B], which is bearish in sentiment because we are correcting bullish [A]. Of that primary [B] wave, we have established the first intermediate (A) and have started the first wave of (B).
(B) will be a short bull move up, down briefly, then up again, and then if we are indeed in a zigzag, should resume our bearish primary correction with © as a long impulse to the downside.
As far as our intermediate (B) wave goes, this will be comprised of at least 3 minor waves. We could have a minor flat, zig-zag, or irregular. Upon closer inspection we can see that {a} of (B) is a 5 point wave, and has actually just ended with a doji on the daily charts. So now we’re looking for a brief move to the downside with {b} of (B), and then a bull move for {c} of (B), and then our intermediate bearish impulse correction © will begin.
In summary, based on the doji seen on the 4H, wave {a} is finished, and a brief bear run should happen to form {b}. I will take this short at sunday open, with a stop loss right above that doji. Price target will be the 50% retracement of impulse wave {a}, which is also confluent with the 23.6 area of impulse wave (A). By watching the wave setup of {b}, I should be able to accurately pinpoint the beginning of {c}, which should be a decent sized bull impulse wave to complete (B).
Here is my setup for Sundays trade. P/L should be 3:1, with a 40-50 pip SL and a 150 pip TP. at the 106.31 area. From there, I’ll be looking for long trades probably for the rest of the week to ride minor {c} upwards. We currently have a doji on the 4h, and the stoch has been overbought for awhile and there is regular divergence, which would signal a downturn. All of these signals plus my wave count, I will definitely be going short on EURJPY as soon as the markets open.
Hey guys,
Just got done doing a long-term wave analysis on the daily fiber charts over the last two years. Take a look!
I’ll explain the chart from left to right:
Lets take a look at the first bearish impulse wave on the left side of the chart, denoted by waves [1]-[5].
Wave [1] is the shortest of the 3 impulse waves ([1], [3], and [5])
Wave [2] is a sharp ABC zig-zag correction of [1].
Wave [3] is longer than Wave [1], and is validated.
Wave [4] is a Ranging Flat Correction.
Wave [5] is an Extended Impulse Wave, as you can see it supersedes the length of [1] and [3] combined, and if we took a closer look we would see it simply has extra impulse subwaves within that [5] wave.
What should we note from this first bearish impulse wave? The Rule of Alternation of course! The Rule of Alternation is a rule for waves 2 and 4 which are correction waves. It states that only one will be a zig-zag correction and the other will be a horizontal range correction of some variation. This is very important to note because in all of the waves you see in this graph, ALL the impulse waves have their wave 2 as a zigzag correction and wave 4 as a horizontal range correction.
After the [1]-[5] we have the long term correction, denoted by [A] to [B] to [C], which is also a zig zag in a 3-3-5 wave form (abc, abc, 12345) This is allowed even in higher degree zig-zags as remember, A waves can be either 5 subwaves OR 3 subwaves, but B MUST be 3 and C MUST be 5.
Still looking within this longer-term 3-3-5 correction, if you look within the [C] wave, which is the impulse wave, you will see that again, the Rule of Alternation again applies, taking subwave 2 of [C] as a zig-zag, and subwave 4 of [C] as a horizontal range.
Now here’s something interesting to note. Subwave 5, the Ending Diagonal, is also a Truncated 5th.
You’ll notice that after the horizontal correction in subwave 4, that impulse subwave 5 of [C] just does not have the momentum to carry on, and never extends beyond subwave impulse 3. This happens because wave 3 is actually another extended impulse wave. Extended impulse waves “eat up” momentum, and you can see wave 5 is starved of it after the correction, forms an ending diagonal AND a truncated 5th, both of which are signs of a massive reversal, and the Fiber did just that, it dropped like a rock.
So after the ending diagonal at 5 [C], this finished the longer term correction, and a new impulse wave was born. If you had been analysing the longer term you would have seen this ending diagonal as well as the truncated 5th and had your short in, as price made a very steep decline out of subwave 5 of [C] into what you see as the next bearish [1] impulse wave.
Price then corrects in [2] as a what? A zig-zag! Again the rule of alternation holds true.
Price drops from the zig-zag into impulse wave [3], which is larger than wave [1], so this new impulse wave is validated. Price then takes enters a horizontal correction at wave [4] (Rule of Alternation baby!) and is now forming a descending triangle!
Descending triangles are good news, it means a continuation in a bearish market, and they are seen during correction waves as flat bottomed with declining tops. This triangle is almost done! In fact, it only needs to touch the top of that falling trendline once more and then it should drop like a rock into impulse wave [5]! Pretty sweet huh? I have a pending short waiting at 1.3280 to take full advantage of this!
Well, that’s the latest on fiber. Keep an eye on that 1.3280 area! I’m almost positive it will kick the fiber out into impulse wave [5] which will be a hefty drop, it might even be an extended wave since we haven’t had one with [1] or [3] of this impulse yet!
Hi, that’s some nice wave analysis on EUR/USD. I had a look at it too some time ago and couldn’t make much out of it, the wave 5 ending diagonal also being a truncated fifth makes it a lot clearer. However the current wave [4] is entering the territory of [1], which I believe isn’t allowed (or are triangles an exception?), so my suggestion is that maybe wave [3] isn’t ended yet but is extended, with that triangle being one of the subdivisions of the extended wave [3]. Perhaps wave 2 within extended [3]? If that’s the case we’re looking at a possibly huge wave [3], which does confirm the bearish outlook created by the truncated fifth+ending diagonal of wave 5 of [C].
As for the EUR/JPY, I sure hope it will fold out the way you labeled it. It would be nice to see Elliott wave work with my own eyes. Looks like a solid count.
I did a count on the USD/CHF. To me it looks like it is now in wave 3 of (3) of [C]. So it would be a third wave within a third wave, which is likely to extend. I have a nagging feeling it will move up though, so im interested in how it will move from here. I can’t link the charts because I don’t have 5 posts yet, so I think I can’t do what you mentioned in one of your previous posts about linking the images.
Daily:
4 Hourly:
Ugh I just had this whole shpeel written on the super cycle wave count and the charts to go with it and then my browser dumped on me and i lost it all. So I’ll make this quick out of frustration and get to the latter part of what I was going to post, which is the close up of this last primary wave we are on.
After picking it apart we can see that it is a valid impulse wave and we are still currently on intermediate wave (4) which is ending as a descending triangle which signals a continuation at point (e) where intermediate (5) will begin downward. Will (5) be a healthy impulse or truncated? Who knows. If it ends up being truncated and forms an ending diagonal, we will have a strong case for a bullish reversal in the near future.
Looking at this more closely, you can see (1) is a healthy impulse, (2) is a strong irregular correction, (3) looks like an extended impulse, again very healthy. (4) begins its correction by verifying it with a leading reverse symmetrical triangle, a very strong indication and also a very rare one that sentiment is reversed, and we can see it indeed did as (4) went on to be a very lengthy combinational corrective pattern that is ending in a descending triangle, signifying our bearish continuation of (5) at point (e).
If you notice the high of (4) which is (a) comes very close, but doesn’t actually go into (1)'s area. This successfully validates our current overall impulse wave of the primary to degree and currently being positioned within the end of the 4th wave intermediate correction of this primary impulse.
What do you think?
Also note that (2) is a sharp vertical correction, and 4 is a horizontal correction, as is seen in the typical impulse wave of a larger degree, aka The Rule of Alternation.
And lastly, even though (3) looks extended, if you measure them in pips, (1) = ~ 1,020 pips in length, and (3) = ~ 1,180 pips in length. So while we should stay on the lookout for a truncated (5) wave, we might see a healthy bear movement after all since there hasnt been any real extreme variation in impulse waves of this overall wave.
And lastly here is a breakdown of the current descending triangle we are in. Descending triangles form 3-3-3-3-3 patterns, or 5 sets of sub ABC waves. This particular triangle is a phenomenal example of that, as it executes the pattern flawlessly. See below.
That looks beautiful. In ‘Elliott Wave principle applied to the foreign exchange markets’ Robert Balan says this about horizontal triangles: “The triangle is one of the most reliable forms under the wave principle. It’s appearence is practically a guarantee that the prevailing trend will continue.” Also it states that thrust following the termination of 4 will generally be same length as the widest part of the triangle. So we can expect a target of at least 1.2736. See image:
But since wave 1 and 3 didnt expand, It maybe could go beyond that target. Also, remember that wave e can go slightly above triangle line, forming a false breakout.
EURJPY doing well from a Wave Theory standpoint, down at the 106.80 level at the moment.
Just an update, my wave analysis is looking very strong at the moment. Price touched down to 160.35, right at the 50% level and is now forming yet another doji on the 4H. waiting for the candle to close to go long! Took a nice ride down for 100 pips.
Wave Theory in action people, proof right here! 
edit: didnt make the same mistake i did last time and enter in the middle of an unfinished correction like I did on cable two weeks ago! Going to do a complete minuette count before I go long to make sure these minor waves are done.
Here we have the current wave position for EUR/JPY.
This is assuming this minor (b) correction keeps a simple zigzag pattern. Since we can be expecting minor © to begin its bullish impulse wave at {c} of (b), we could therefore expect this (b) to turn out as an accumulation range before the move upwards, perhaps as a triangle or something of the like.
If it is one thing I’ve come to learn, impulse waves are always simple. Corrections are almost always complex!
Was about to go long and realized that this current swing low which is {a} might not be done yet. An analysis of the 15m minuette waves seen in yellow tells me I was right in holding off on the long position! Currently the swing down is on its 4th correction wave, seen as the tiny stall you see forming at yellow (4). Should take one more small dive before retracing {a} as {b}.
As you can see here, analyzing the very short term wave positioning of your higher degree waves can prove invaluable! I would have gotten in wayyyy too early had I not checked this out first!
We are still making yellow (4) of {a} corrective wave, with the ABC subwaves of (4) in red. Once red C completes, yellow (5) will be a bearish impulse wave. Wherever that ends will be our Long position that will start our bullish {b} correction of {a}, which is the current bearish impulse wave we are on.
I’ll probably try to ride red C which will be the start of red 1 of yellow (5) down for a quick scalp before I take a long position when it reverses as {b} begins.
zoomed out we can see {a} of (b) forming a really pretty bear impulse, correcting horizontally between its parent 61.8 and 50 fib levels. Looks like I might have a perfect wave count here fella’s! Which means high probability trading from here on out as long as our analysis stays correct! Which shouldnt be too hard, doing the initial wave count is the hard part!
And here is the sub-minuette waves taken from the 1m chart of the current EURJPY position. What was once just a tiny, vague correction is now explained in perfect wave formation and count using the 1M charts to perfect our entry. Short at 5 of C of (4)
and here is my short entry. I should of waited till 2, as price just made an 8 pip retracement to that level, but its 8 pips, pretty good entry i’d say 
again, as you can see, breaking price down to the 1M wave count is invaluable!
Also, depending on how this sub-minuette C impulse plays out, my target is hopefully around the 106.30 area. I’ll keep my eyes on it though and we’ll see where it takes us! It’s fascinating to think that I can literally follow price, minute by minute and know exactly where to enter and exit simply by watching the 1M wave count. Let’s see how this plays out!
Here we have sub-minuette corrective 4 accumulating as a triangle, typical of horizontal corrective patterns, with a break to the downside as sub-minuette impulse 5 takes off. This last impulse wave will be our final one before we take a bullish approach for {c} of (B).
Remember, this is still the 1M chart, isn’t it just amazing how Wave Theory is vividly applicable to FX?
Zoomed out a bit more and with a clearer picture and all the sub-minuettes deleted, we can see yellow (4) is actually still correcting in a perfect ABCDE triangle, where E is the reversal point that will begin (5). This greatly increases the range of this overall {a}{b}{c} correction. Going to take a new short at current price and hope things go my way!
Notice yet again the Rule Of Alternation!! Sexy isnt it? {2} is a jagged correction, (4) is a perfect horizontal triangle.
Trade update:
I shorted exactly at E of the triangle at 106.56. Price is now testing the bottom triangle support, I’m +10 pips and hungry for more! Looks like we will see a break and yet again Wave Theory prevails!
So far I’ve netted 200 pips just from playing the Eur/JPY waves today. I’ll update again once (5) is finished so you can see the results.
update: as of 1:25pm GMT we are still in this triangle, it has successfully formed an ABCDEFGHI or a 9 point descending triangle. It hasnt moved from I over the past 10 minutes, and I’m braced for a huge move down with my entry back at E! Might see a brief fakeout up from I and then hopefully it heads down to start (5) which i anticipate to be a 80-100 pip swing which will end this current minor impulse wave.
Update 2: as of 1:55pm GMT price has had a brief breakout from I, the last topside point of the triangle and came back down to I. Triangle topside fakeouts are pretty standard right before they take the plunge, so i’m confident this being the case here as we are blatantly on wave 4 and still need a 5th for this impulse. Getting sleepy so i might just widen my stop a little and throw a trail on it and see what happens.
Well, my short got stopped out. Price bounced out of my triangle and slowly retraced up to 106.70, the 61.8 of the major swing and is sitting at the level now. Sad times! Really thought that one would be a winner, have to reevaluate the trade and see where we’re at.
