Set and forget. That’swhat they want. Or believe exists always.
It is a high profile topic partly, if not mainly, because BP is a site designed specifically for newcomers to trading and, of course, most newcomers are confronted with precisely this issue.
However, it does not need to be a “fight” at all - that is purely a matter of the attitude of the poster concerned and their approach to others that see things differently.
It is in any case an important issue, not because of which to use, PA or Indicators, but because traders should always understand precisely what they are using on their charts for their analysis, how they are constructed, and what information is actually being revealed and why. If traders do not do this then they are trading in the dark and absorbing various myths and labels and misconceptions that unfortunately are perpetuated on the internet either through a process of the “blind leading the blind” or from a far more sinister activity of sucking people into scams and expensive products, e.g. based on the sales ideology such as “Keep the crowds ignorant and sell them the idea that I am the (only) solution”! And there is a constant supply of such fish that are hungry for such bait.
It was a good topic to start here even if it has been discussed many times before, but a pity that it was tarnished by uncalled for personal attacks.
It really is not a fight at all! As traders we are all on the same side and only have everything to gain from fair and considerate discussion. However, there are always those who simply cannot take being challenged!
Thank you @MattyMoney. That is always encouraging to hear!
There would be no value or purpose to a forum if it did not add value to others in addition to those actually contributing. We are indeed all on the same bus heading in the same direction - even when it might look quite the opposite!
As you say these are stock-related indices. I have never used them but I don’t see how one could relate these to forex?
Trin is an index that contains a volume component. Since forex is a decentralised market I am not sure where one would get a sensible and useful volume real-time data. Some brokers provide data from their own client positions, which I can’t imagine being appropriate here. Perhaps the only source might be futures contracts data?
Similarly, the Vix index is a stock index which, I believe, is based on options values on CBOT?
Are you thinking of applying these to a Yen index somehow? If not a Yen index, then against which currency(ies)?I am totally unaware of that approach so maybe you could explain some more how you would approach this?
I sympathise with your view about promoters using tools as bait to catch their prey! There is more of that going on than most people realise!
However, you also seem to have taken in some of the myths and misconceptions that are both unintentionally and deliberately fed to newcomers. It might help clarify these if you read through this entire thread since most of these are dealt with.
For example, It is not true that traders using indicators are not looking at current price! Of course they are! But, in the same way as with PA, current price is being compared with identified significant points or values which have been derived from historic data in what ever trading method is being used. This combination of lagging is therefore not only a positive factor, it is essential if one wants to compare current price action with historic points such as S/R, highs, lows, trendlines, etc, etc.
The main purpose with any form of TA analysis is to add structure and meaning to price that might otherwise appear random and meaningless. The major moves are primarily driven by underlying fundamentals affecting the value of the currencies involved. When we apply TA to price we are not evaluating these fundamental drivers themselves, we are only analysing their impact on price resulting from participation. And it is worth remembering that there are far more types of market participation than just speculative trading from retail and institutional traders - and not all of it is for gain from the currency transaction at all! For example, commercial and trade business, investment and pension funds, even your holiday cash when you go abroad!!
Also volume is an uncertain factor in currency trading since there is no centralised market. Futures volumes might be one source, but again is only partial. But if you have a data source that works for you then that is great!
It is maybe also worth reflecting on the fact that many widely used indicators are not actually created by sharks to catch fish. Many have been developed by traders themselves and have been around for a long time.
For example:
Moving averages:
“MOVING AVERAGE. This technique for smoothing data points was used for decades before this, or any general term, came into use. In 1909 G. U. Yule (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 72, 721-730) described the “instantaneous averages” R. H. Hooker calculated in 1901 as “moving-averages.” Yule did not adopt the term in his textbook, but it entered circulation through W. I. King’s Elements of Statistical Method (1912).”
Ichimoku cloud:
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, usually shortened to “Ichimoku”, is a technical analysis method that builds on candlestick charting to improve the accuracy of forecast price moves. It was developed in the late 1930s by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese journalist. He spent 30 years perfecting the technique before releasing his findings to the general public in the late 1960s.
RSI:
The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.
These are just a few, I am certainly not promoting them as “good” in forex use, I only personally use a few MA’s and a few basic so-called PA considerations. My point is only to emphasise that indicators are not the “work of the devil”, created just to catch unaware Newbies.
In addition, there are lots of sites and individuals that will program indicators tailor-made to a trader’s own specifications and requirements. These certainly cannot be described as designed to catch the unsuspecting fish. E.g. fxcodebase.com
Just some background thoughts for you to think about!
True, but Babypips is also widely known throughout the industry as a site specifically designed for Newbie traders, which means it is also a happy fishing ground for all those scams and sharks that are looking for fresh victims!
For example, Sundays, being considered a quiet day, often sees new posts from suspect new posters offering products and advertising brokers etc. But, fortunately, the moderating here is very sharp in this respect, as well as being supported by vigilant members here who are quick to report them - and they are deleted very soon before most people would have even noticed.
But there are other ways that such people with ulterior agendas can infiltrate these kinds of sites and end up, for example, inviting Newbies to PM them - or placing internet links in their profiles, etc.
There are some other very interesting points in your posts that I would love to add to but I am rolling up a business trip here in the UK right now and will be flying back home over the weekend. So I will probably only get back here again on Monday.
Well I said it as a bit of a joke but - all those carry trades used to buy stocks are mostly funded low yielding currencies the Yen being the primary one.
Sells off in stocks often see those carrt trades unwound.
I have zero proof there is a correlation between high vix readings and bottoms in the yen - but i wouldnt be at all surprised.
Same could be said of the CHF.
Maybe when I have more time I will do some proper backtesting of the theory.
Sorry I actually meant low readings in the Vix and bottoms in the Yen.
Or high readings in the Vix and tops in the Yen
Yes, may be you are right regarding histories of some indicators, but still any lagging studies and mainstream education are just to prepare good food for sharks. That why 90% of traders loose even after all this great education and etc… To win over the market you should have real transparency at least at a level that institutionals have…
Regarding volume - there are outstanding tools which aggregates real volume from futures markets/Currenex/Reuter/Bloomberg and etc. They are expensive, but reliable and well-presented to use in trading…
Can;t agree: mostly insitutionals/banks volumes drive the markets and our aim is to have transparency to see what is happening now at every moment instead of hoping that historical data give us some hint and etc. It will of course give…may be… But before price starts to follow what it should follow, (may be), market just “hunt” all weak players and mostly we are among them… even comparing to data which institutionals have every moment knowing what we will do with all our lagging indicators and average psychology and data that we have, which is only the price which you can rely on, while anyway not seeing what is going on with real volume which drives the market. This way most traders are always “little bit late”… I hope its readable
Sorry mate but I dont agree with your post at all and if a beginner reads this i dont want them to think what you’re saying is the only way. You may be trading profitably using your method but you speak with such confidence and it just ain’t true.
Babypips provides mainstream education. It isnt trying to provide food for ‘sharks’. 90% is an exaggeration, its more like 75% lose, easier to see now as all brokers have to put it up. You dont need ‘transparency at a level that institutionals have’, whatever that means. There are people who are profitable without this information. It’s ok to trade a certain way but please dont put it as if any other way is wrong or doesnt work.
Hi @DrMoorZilla Thanks for your reply and, yes, it is readable!
You have raised a number of issues here that are frequently raised by Newbies here on BP and they are certainly worth looking at a little deeper. I certainly do not wish to appear confrontational about these and so I will set you some things to think about and see what conclusions you come to.
a) Lagging indicators and education just feed the sharks.
OK, so we have the educator sharks who are selling methods that promise their buyers amazing success. Many pay the price and then are bitterly disappointed when they actually end up losing their money. But let’s think here: what does the “shark” actually earn here? He is not the traders’ broker and so he is not the counterparty to their trades, therefore he does not earn from the losses. His only income is the payment for the education course or the “superduper trading system” that he is promoting? (unless one is giving funds for the shark to also manage, but let’s leave that aside for now).
So, preferably, he would actually rather see you winning with his system so that its reputation builds and he can sell more packages - because that is his only income source from this business. But, of course, he is not bothered who wins or loses with it if he can just keep finding new recruits to buy into it. But I would suggest that the point here is: he is not actually gaining from your trading losses at all - so it is irrelevant to him whether his product is based on indicators or something else.. What do you think?
And we could add to this, if a Newbie buys into such a product but only trades on a demo account (which the vendor would neither know about nor care about), then the Newbie would not actually lose any money at all from trading - so, again, I would suggest that the shark is not gaining the buyers’ trading losses, he is only gaining his product sales income? If the buyer loses then it is their own fault for not testing to thoroughly on a demo before going live?
b) market just “hunt” all weak players and mostly we are among them
By “market” I assume you mean the institutional participants? But let’s look at the mechanics here. All retail traders set up their trading accounts with a broker. I don’t know the actual statistics but I would guess that at least some 95% of retail traders’ positions are counterpartied by the broker. This means that their open trades are not actually in the interbank market anywhere! This also means that their open orders such as stops are also only with the broker and do not exist in the real interbank market anywhere.
So if we assume the institutions could move the market to “hunt the weak player”, then who actually gets the profit when stops are hit? I would suggest it is the broker and not the institution at all! So what would motivate the banks to move markets in order to just line the pockets of the brokers?
We can add some further observations here:
No single institution is capable of moving the forex market on its own. And so we would need to see systematic collusion amongst the big participators to achieve this. So, again I would ask, why would the banks do this to catch out the retail traders when the profit goes to the broker who is the counterparty with the other side of the trade?
Also, the market at the institutional level is certainly not interested in the kind of amounts that retail traders play with!
So if we are going to claim that the institutional market is going to rip off the retail guys, let’s see the mechanics of how that could be carried out so that the banks get the money for their efforts?
How can the institutions possibly know what the retail is doing with its indicators? There are all kinds of different indicators and parameters and trading strategies. There cannot possibly be a homogeneous approach that universally sets all retail orders at the same levels using the same methods. Some traders are scalpers, some are day traders, some are swing traders and many others are position traders working off daily/weekly timeframes. In fact, I would suggest that it is far easier for professionals to guess where the retail is postioned if retail are all using PA!! All lines like S/R, trendlines, patterns, etc are recognised by pretty much all PA traders looking at the same timeframe charts. E.g. Is not a high on one chart the same high on everyone else’s charts for the same TF?
The broker, on the other hand, is the one who knows where his clients’ orders are, and it is the broker who can open their spreads whenever it might suit them to trawl in nearby stops, etc. I admit that I do not know for a fact, but I would claim that most brokers do not care which specific retail accounts win and lose on specific trades. Many open trades will be offsetting each other with respect to the broker’s overall exposure and he only needs to monitor his net exposure across all positions and then hedge whenever appropriate. The broker knows that around 70%+ of his accounts are going to lose from their trading efforts over time anyway, so he just has to wait… but all this is nothing to do with the banks and their real markets, these are separate universes. Or what do you think?
We can look at more of these issues if you like, I do personally think it is worth it, but only if it interests you or other readers here?
So let’s wait for some response before getting deeper into these issues!
But one last question: I do not understand what you mean by the transparency of the institutions? They only see the price as we do - well nearly! The broker will add on a spread and maybe “lean” his bid/offer in one direction or another, but he cannot deviate far from the underlying interbank market-maker prices. Of course, the professionals have access to far more information and analysis than the average retail trader, but when we study price movement we are also studying what the professionals are actually doing. Maybe you could expand a bit here on what you mean by “transparency”?
Looking forward to your thoughts!
Manx I think point c) is very interesting and is likely true to a big extent.
I get bored of traders whining that some cabal are taking out there micro lot positions all the time. Lol
Much in that post worth pondering over.
Depends
If it’s steep it could ( as usual it’s matter of probabilities ) [quote=“QuadPip, post:30, topic:262422”]
bounces.
[/quote]
stochastics are ok for short term trading in ranges , i dont bother with rsi and mac d now
what indicators do you use for Momentum and Volume and are these indicators relevant for Forex
cool so you like to use the cci as abit of reference too, obviously time of day , new reports add to vol and basic movement and nature of candlesticks
Yes exactly. However that chart I sent you was during the Asian session and I rarely trade during the Asian session. My main focus is on the London and New York sessions.
I do add support and resistance levels and most of these levels are sourced from a higher timeframe IE 1 hour or Daily.
I believe strongly in price action trading. Every bar tells a story.
Cheers
Blackduck