AUD/USD drop with no news release?

Thanks. 1) I believe we trade pairs, if we need news analysis we refer to the economic calendar in news affecting these two pairs. I don’t see this USD strengthening in my economic calendar as the only high impact news for AUD/USD is USD news on 15:00GMT while downside movement started at about 7 AM GMT?

  1. Is there any way to know this USD strengthening before it happens, while the economic calendar does not have its news?

  2. S&P 500 -3.4%
    Dow -2.8%
    Nasdaq -3.91%


Tnx and best of luck :blush:

ofc there is, study volume in relation to price. if u pull up the aussie chart or UC or UCHF etc, u can see that they bought while the price was dropping, volume increased and price closed bullish (beeing a big red candle at 1 time). it s logical if u think about it. activity in the market increases(meaning more orders hiting the market) but price doesn t continue lower and as a result of that activity (volume) closes higher.there would be a lot more to be said on the topic, but just to answer ur question, yes, most of the dollar crosses were accumulating longs.
i ll post a random dollar chart but again, i tried to simplify in a few words as much as i could.

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Hiya @1odi

Thanks. Above I highlighted the volume by a red separator line. If you noticed, the volume picks in the middle of the chart is higher than the two volumes picks in the right, and I highlighted the last one. The volume increase in respect to price dropping amount, in this case, is not in the balance with the volume increase in the middle of the chart, and according to price increases if you know what I mean? e.g. That right side volume increase and price rejection in the right is not in balance with the amount of volume increase and price increase in the picks in middle one if you know what I mean?
Someone may come and say that happened because of the reversal pattern, a reversal happened, but this reversal shall not break the trendline, thus it does not make sense with my logic as today’s analysis was confirming an uptrend movement if you know what I mean?
Thus in my logic, not reversal pattern and nor volume increase and price rejection does not make sense to this much downtrend if you know what I mean? As breaking from the trendline is abnormal.

I don’t get you as my understanding, both big red candles after my red line separator are bearish and they closed as bearish as well?

Looking at your chart, If USD/CHF is moved up considered, the yellow separator below and associated volume is the one shall consider and the candles associated are blue?

I like volume :heart_eyes: and I sometimes consider it, but I didn’t experience a volume as this little break the trendline that much if you know what I mean? :roll_eyes:

Tnx and best of luck :blush:

Hi @campione, @commodguy check out the strategy in the post below and see if you could have predicted and traded the AUDUSD…

If I’m going to lose money… it’s to the AUDUSD… hence I don’t trade it…

Hope this is of some help…


Hello dear,

USD strengthened yesterday against 90% of it’s rivals due to oversold conditions among others.
Remember Dollar is still weak regardless bcos the Feds are pumping in money in the economy which is causing inflation and long term weakness & short term strengths.
So expect USD to strengthen once in a while against it’s rivals as well…The big guys know this so datz why they still Place demand for USD.

I hope I helped out in a way.

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Did it happen yesterday? Monday was pretty negative for stocks and lead to strengthening of USD. Aussie was also under pressure since it negatively correlates with risk-off sentiments.

Financial news on TV said stock markets drops were due to fear of Covid waves in US and Europe prolonging recovery, plus shutdown talks, and failure of another round of stimulus due to political battles.

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Hiya @ontario

What do you mean?

Tnx and best of luck :blush:

HIYA @campione
there are a few basic principles in VSA or Wyckoff market aproach.

  1. strenght(buying pressure) comes in while price is going down
    2)weakness(selling pressure) appears on up moves.
    the concept behing this is so simple yet hard to grasp initially. for instance, most people would buy something when the price for that particular comodity(whatever u want that 2 be) is on sale, or at a discount, right? same goes for sellers, they are attracted to sell when prices are high. would u rather sell ur apartment with 60k or 200k?
    another principal here would be cause end effect. volume measures activity in the market, therefore the result of that activity is what interests us. price s going up on high vol, and the reasult of that is higher prices, so i consider that agressive buying, same for when it goes down on high vol and the result is lower prices (agressive selling). now, if we re in an up move, and all of a sudden as we reach higher prices, u see volume kickking in and the result of that on the next bar is a lower close or a red bar to put it simply, then we say that possible supply as hit the market. why? well, the activity increased considerably(volume) and the result of that is lower close. tick activity, in our case(forex) measures orders hitting the market. if that vol increase (the orders that are comin in) would most of them be buy orders(or people buying) then we should ve closed up nt down, simple right?
    what u highlighted is a bar that got bought up, meaning there were some sellers at that level at 1 point, but the result of that is still a higher close on less volume.(meaning it didn t took much volume to close higher, therefore at that point in time buyers outweight the sellers).
    now, for what i wrote earlier, there are 4 phases that price goes thro. Accumulation(basically ur range, but u an see volume increasing of the lows of the range meaning buying and less vol at the top of the range).
    Distribution, which is the opposite of accumulation, meaning volume is increasing a the top of the range resulting in lower prices, and u are ussually gong to have lower vol at the bottom.
    then u have mark up and mark down, which are bassically ur trending type moves.
    again, there are so much more nuances to be shared on the topic to really grasp the hole picture(background) but hope that this might share some light on what u was wondering.
    have a good day

The volume, is that broker specific, or can you get volume data from many brokers in one place? Or maybe that doesn’t matter?

Hiya @1odi

Because the yellow rectangle isn’t formed in my opinion in the Wyckoff method, I don’t see this as Wyckoff.


Tnx and best of luck

Hiya @campione
accumulation or distribution come in many shapes etc, there isn t 1 that s gonna stick to urs or mine guidelines to the T. judging the attempt to mark down or up based on the volume and spread of the candles should be imperative. trading with volume can be very subjective, as people are different, therefore different views and interpretations. 2 people an take the same trade, 1 losses and the other 1 wins, it s also how u handle urself, and i guess that goes for whatever system u decide to trade. to be honest, u don t need to make it complicated, or to know every little aspect of why and how and when. think of it like this: do u need to know how the TV is build or works in order to just press a button and watch it? as long as 1 stays away from major market releases, and sticks to a market aproach, imho will always come out on top. u can rade only break and retest and still be profitable, just like u see in those schematics. i think people are prone to over complcate things, it s what i always did. anyways, there no wrong way to trade, just different views of the same thing which leads to different outcomes.
PS> luck has nothing to do with trading, so stop wishing that for people!!! :slight_smile:

yes, it is broker specific, specially in a decentralised market like forex. what wanna do if trading wyckof or vsa is choose a large broker with multiple LP s. like say FXCM or OANDA, icMarkets etc.since in forex tick volume measures activity, the more clients a broker has the better the vol date should represent the orders that are coming in. studies have shown that the correlattion between real vol and tick vol is around 90%, so pretty accurate if u ask me. anyways, best would be to look up this by urself and see what and how. cheers

This might be due to the reason that USD becoming stronger at that moment and weakening of aud created this downfall as there are news floating about the lockdown this can be the major reason.

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This unpredictability is the reason why I can never leave any positions open during the weekend or even overnight.

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Hiya @Inspirenies

Thanks. I dislike it too. But sometimes the price doesn’t move from entry. You enter in a position for the expected 50pip movement but the price doesn’t move either overnight or to let you close it on weekend, what will you do? Considering the price doesn’t move an inch or gone in a temporary loss condition that your estimation says it will go to profit in about 50pip, will you close it over night in loss? If the situation continues over days that reach the weekend, will you close before the weekend in loss, or you risk it over the weekend? And is this scheme is profitable always and in every weekend?

Tnx and best of luck :blush:

The USD is strengthening in order to deal with the rivals. Check your economic calendar to confirm.


I’m not sure are you speaking about this event or not. At about 7 AM 21st Sep price dropped for no reason, there was nothing on the economic calendar as for this thread speaking.

Tnx and best of luck

AUDUSD looking bullish

Not after what RBA Gov said… dropped 32 pips after announcement