The Australian dollar spiked higher after the labor report showed a 52,700 increase in jobs. Continued job creation following three rate hikes has fueled expectations that policy makers will need to continue tightening to cool the economy and avert rising inflation. The pair has stalled at resistance and considering the broader trend of risk aversion continued consolidation is a likely scenario. Markets in general appear on hold today as they await details of the bailout for Greece which could make several pairs attractive for scalpers. However, the news cycle could spark broad based volatility and with solid support not far below the AUD/USD appears to be an attractive candidate.
[U][B]Key Technical Levels[/B][/U]
The 20-Day SMA at 0.8929 is potentially solid resistance and could limit upside risk, it appears on track to convergence with the 200-Day SMA at 0.8597 which could lead to a period of consolidation. The larger period technical indicator is providing staunch support which could limit downside risks and also presents a target for entering and exiting positions.
[U][B]Quantitative Metrics [/B][/U]
A wide Bollinger band width of 795 pips for the AUD/USD is a result of the prior bearish trend is a red flag for scalpers. Recent bullish action has led to a slight narrowing but the potential for continued one-way price action remains. Sharp changes in risk trends are stretching the ATR for the pair which has reached 133 pips. The daily range makes the pair an expensive target as it is accounting for 1.49% of the spot price.
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[I]To discuss this report or be added to the email list, contact John Rivera, Currency Analyst: <[email protected]> [/I]