The AUDNZD has finally accelerated to the upside and should be headed to a multi-month highs and beyond in the coming weeks.
The rally from .9279 to 1.0823 (ended on November 1, 2007) was probably the final bull run for ‘risk’ for at least a few years. The drop from 1.0823 was a 5 wave decline, indicating that the larger trend is down. The rally from .9508 has taken the form of an expanded flat and needs to push through 1.0137 in order to be considered complete. A test of the 61.8% at 1.0321 is possible before the bear market resumes.
The AUDCAD rally from .8119 to .9514 was in 5 waves and the decline to .8271 was clearly a 3 wave correction. Therefore, .9514 is expected to give way to a new high eventually. A measured objective is where the rally from .8271 would equal the rally from .8119 to .9514; at .9670. Near term, .9126 should remain intact.
Last we wrote that “the AUDNZD is expected to accelerate to the upside soon. A 5 wave rally throughout the summer of 2007 was followed by a 3 wave correction that ended in December 2007. Therefore, another 5 wave rally should lead to a break above 1.2091 in coming months. One sign that this pair might be ready to accelerate is that it has held above the 200 day SMA now for about a week.” Although the AUDNZD slipped below the 200 day SMA for a few days late last week and early this week, the 2/7 low at 1.1271 did remain intact and the AUDNZD has finally accelerated higher. Again, this rally is expected to exceed 1.2091 in the coming weeks/months and bullish potential is much greater.
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[B]TREND ANALYSIS[/B] is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
[B]SCHEDULE[/B]
Monday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Tuesday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD
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