The AUDNZD has been a great pair to trade the past few months due to its continuous movement. A sharp selloff with very high volume, followed by a bullish trend with high volume. The past few weeks there has been a noticeable decrease in volume paired with the market ranging. If volume picks up again, you might expect another bullish or bearish movement.
Short term, I could see the AUDNZD strengthen and reach its highs from November last year or a continued consolidation with a selloff. As indicated with the green line, short to medium term, the AUDNZD would have a definite selloff following the large indices such as S&P. The pair is struggling to break past the 78,6% retracement from the purple Fib level and the 23,6% retracement from the pin Fib level. Scalping between these levels might be an option, however, I am waiting for a longer-term movement.
The long term downward channel might continue in the next few years. In relation to this, the next movement might be triggered by a news event. Obviously, any big news out of New Zealand or Australia could spark the move. Otherwise, news that affects the Dow and S&P, as well as big news out of China could move this pair.
That being said, I use pending orders to enter a position. It is a way for me to confirm a movement which increases the success rate of a trade.
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