AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
Commentary – For months, we have been focusing on the long term 5 wave rally from .8165-.9514 which was followed by a 3 wave decline to .8375. However, since the decline into .8375, price action has been very choppy and the pattern is unclear. It appears that there are two 3 wave movements (one up and one down). This is suggestive of a triangle. Under this scenario, the AUDCAD would remain in a range.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – We wrote last week that “either a correction is unfolding or a straight out reversal is underway. In either case, price is likely to come under 104.31.” Price came well under 104.31 and the AUDJPY is currently just above 100.00. The labeling on this chart shows one possible scenario. If price comes under 95.63, then the decline from 107.84 would be in 5 waves, which is evidence that the larger trend has turned down. A setback, if it proves corrective, would offer the opportunity to get short against 107.84.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – We have favored the idea that an expanded flat is unfolding. If this is the case, then price will eventually come under 1.1592 prior to the next bullish leg. The former 4th wave in the 1.1330/90 area is a potential ending point for the decline (and therefore the entire correction as well).
Strategy – Flat