AUDUSD - bearish outlook

Here’s my bearish outlook for AUDUSD!
1 hour|690x379

  • My long term outlook for this pair is 0.6875 - forming an ABCD pattern from 0.7450 - 0.7100,
    with the extension falling at 0.6875 region.
  • price is currently ranging between 0.7050 - 0.7100 after a strong initial impulse. I’m anticipating for a break, to the down side, of 0.7050 before continuing to reach my target.
  • On the hourly TF we can also see that price is being forced into a descending triangle, where a break out could lead to the next impulse as part of a market cycle.

Any comments/further ideas, feel free to comment!

Hey, I would highly recommend to add a valuation tool to your analysis so that you can see is the AudUsd undervalued or overvalued.
I hope you know that the interest rates are the number 1 thing that drives the forex markets right?
So you can add for example Aussie 10 year yield minus US 10 year yield to your chart. This will show you how bond traders are evaluating the AUD and USD.
Let me show you example:


As you can see on the 1H AU chart, the yield spread is pushing higher while the AU is at the support level, that would be a great buy opportunity.
I’m not saying buy or sell every time you spot a divergence between spreads and underlying price, because sometimes institutions manipulate the price further away from the yields to trap retail traders into the wrong trade to accumulate a bigger positions so always add technical analysis but yields are great evaluation tool for forex markets.

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I believe that from CMP 0.7120 it may fall to 0.7060 in short term.

Hey @Traders_Approach, be careful explaining to the punters the reality of trading in the Forex Market.

It rattles some of the Influencers, true believers, dreamers and infirm here in the BP Forums…

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Matal currencies like AUD ends up mostly moved by gold price moves, … IT HAS BEEN MY VIEW but stand to be furnished with any helpful infor from you fellow traders