Australian Dollar Below .8300

The AUDUSD has bounced from the 20 day SMA but it remains our contention that the AUDUSD is reversing from a significant top. Weekly RSI is divergent and above 70 for the first time since November 2004. The rally from .7678 is an extended 5th wave, which are often fully retraced.

A break above the short term resisting line (shown below) opens up the door to new highs. It is also possible that a triangle is forming from the .8390 high. In this case, a terminal thrust to a new high would occur before a reversal. As such, there is the opportunity to play the range within the triangle for now but beware of the aforementioned thrust through the top of the triangle.