Australian Dollar Crosses Break Out From Consolidation


Commentary - The AUDCAD correction from .9515 looks complete as does the smaller correction from .8751. The weekly chart analysis from a few weeks ago touches on this and can be found at AUDCAD. Near term, a bullish bias is warranted against .8510 (longer term?against .8271) and the bullish objectives are not until .9681 and 1.0531 (100% and 161.8% ext. of .8119-.9514/.8271). This rally is expected to play out for the next 8 months/year.
Strategy - Longer term bullish against .8271 (risk moved from .8119), targets .9681 and 1.0531

Commentary - We wrote last week that “a terminal thrust that tops near the 61.8% of 107.70-85.98 at 99.41 or the 78.6% at 103.06 (should occur) before the next leg lower (below 85.98).” The AUDJPY is testing the 61.8% at 99.41 but the pattern does not look close to complete so continue to favor the upside.
Strategy - Remain bullish, move risk to 94.98 (from 92.20), target 103.00

Commentary - We wrote last week that “a deep pullback to the 61.8% of 1.0906-1.2030 seems reasonable given that this pullback is a larger second wave. Also, the 1.1331 is the former 4th wave and 8/17 reaction low. Expect this corrective decline to take at least a few weeks.” The decline from 1.2031 is in 3 legs but is most likely the first leg of a larger more complex correction. We continue to favor a deeper correction to end near 1.1331 before the next bull leg.
Strategy - Get bullish close to 1.1340, against 1.0906, targeting above 1.2030 (much higher).