Australian Dollar Crosses Choppy at Top of Ranges


[B]Commentary [/B]- Our working assumption is that that rally from .8746 is actually wave X in a more complex correction from .9514. We favor this view because the rally from .8749 is not a clean 5 wave impulse that would typically signal the beginning of a 3rd wave. Look for a push to the 61.8% of .9514-.8746 at .9219 before wave Y drops below .8746 in order to complete larger wave 2. A rally above .9514 would signal that wave 3 is underway.
[B]Strategy [/B]- Waiting for wave 2 to finish below .8746 so that we can align with wave 3 higher

[B]Commentary[/B] - Weekly RSI is at 78.00, the highest since July 2003 when the AUDJPY topped out at 81.11. The wave structure is not clear so we do not have any levels from which to calculate measured objectives for the end of the rally. However, looking at the 240 minute chart, we can count the number of waves from 88.48 to get an idea of when the top will come. Impulse moves unfold in 5 waves - or a derivation thereof (5, 9, 13, etc.). A push through 106.28 would make 13 waves and suggest that a top is close to forming. The next psychological resistance point is 110.00.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Flat

[B]Commentary[/B] - The AUDNZD structure remains unclear. A downward sloping channel has formed. The support line is drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 lows and the resistance line off of the November 2006 and May 2007 highs. A break through the channel would provide a directional bias but the lack of clarity right now tells us to look for opportunities elsewhere.
[B]Strategy [/B]- Flat