Australian Dollar Crosses Correcting but Remain Bullish


[B]Commentary [/B]- Our working assumption is that that rally from .8746 is actually wave X in a more complex correction from .9514. We favor this view because the rally from .8749 is not a clean 5 wave impulse that would typically signal the beginning of a 3rd wave. Look for a push to the 61.8% of .9514-.8746 at .9219 before wave Y drops below .8746 in order to complete larger wave 2. A rally above .9514 would signal that wave 3 is underway.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Waiting for wave 2 to finish below .8746 so that we can align with wave 3 higher

[B]Commentary[/B] - We wrote last week that “we can count the number of waves from 88.48 to get an idea of when the top will come. Impulse moves unfold in 5 waves - or a derivation thereof (5, 9, 13, etc.). A push through 106.28 would make 13 waves and suggest that a top is close to forming.” The AUDJPY rallied through 106.28 and is hit 107.25 this morning, a few pips shy of a resistance line drawn off of the 4/17 and 6/22 highs. The trend remains up but a break of 103.76 would indicate additional bearish potential.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Flat

[B]Commentary [/B]- We have not seen a clear pattern in the AUDNZD for a long time (on any time frame), but we may finally have one to work with. The rally from 1.0906 has impulse characteristics and the decline from 1.1124 is unmistakably a correction. The only question is whether or not the 1.1124-1.0974 decline is the entire correction or just the first leg of a more complex correction (which we are showing on the chart). Either way, the near term structure is bullish as long as price is above 1.0906. A break above 1.1124 indicates additional bullish potential. We will have to watch the form of the rally in order to determine objectives (targets).
[B]Strategy[/B] - Bullish now, against 1.0906, target TBD