-AUDCHF and AUDCAD at risk of reversing soon
-AUDNZD bullish breakout against 1.2549
[B]
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
The rally from .6926 is corrective and in its latter stages. Triangles often occur as B waves and the thrust from the triangle in wave C completes the corrective pattern. Having reached the 50% of the decline from 1.0091, the next potential resistance would be the 61.8% at .8882. A top could be in place now (RSI divergence supports a bearish outlook).
[B]
Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
The AUDCAD remains above Elliott channel support and the pair should continue higher (above .8946) in order to complete an impulse (5 waves) from .7719. Following completion of wave 5 (which is to end above .8946), the probability of a top and at least a correction back to .8546 will be high. It is also possible that a push above .8946 would complete the entire rally from the 2008 low. .9267 is a bullish target; this is where wave 5 (from .8546) will equal wave 1 (.7719-.8370). The only way a top would be in place now is if wave 5 is truncated.
[B]
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
The AUDNZD is testing 1.30 for the third time since summer 2008. Triple tops rarely occur. If price trades to a level for a third time, it typically does so because it wants to break that level. As such, I favor a breakout strategy against 1.2549. In the event of a break, the next resistance level is the 2000 high at 1.3638.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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