AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDCAD
Commentary - We wrote last week that “the decline from .9519 is a large correction and is unfolding as a zigzag. Wave A is from .9519 to .9020 and wave B is from .9020 to .9290. Wave C would equal wave A at .8789. The 61.8% fibo of .8123-.9518 is at .8656 and is potential support.” The 5/30 low at .8749, is very close to the measured objective of .8789. That may be the low but a rally through the wave A low at .9020 would confirm our suspicion. That said, the rally from .8749 is inspiring and we are bullish now, against .8749. A decline below .8749 negates the bullish setup and exposes the 61.8% of .8123-.9518 at .8656.
Strategy - Bullish now, against .8749, targeting above .9520 (potentially much higher levels)
AUDJPY
Commentary - We wrote last week that “as long as 98.90 holds, the trend is bullish. Connecting a line parallel to the one drawn off of the March 2006 and March 2007 lows from the December 2005 high projects and end to the AUDJPY bull trend near 101.45 this week (101.56 next week)” and that we were “looking for a new high (above 100.42) to tag the mentioned channel line before a reversal.” The AUDJPY has not only tagged this line but rallied through it to test 102.41. The new high this week at 102.41 sets up a key reversal (weekly basis) if price closes the week below 101.68 (previous week?s high). This would be the first sign of a reversal. Also, weekly RSI is overbought and divergent.
Strategy - None for now - setup for key reversal week though
AUDNZD
Commentary - The AUDNZD remains rangebound within a triangle that has persisted for most of the year. Given that the preceding trend was down, probability favors a bearish break from the triangle. Potential support on a break is at the 78.6% of 1.0430-1.2493 at 1.0874 (just above the 2/10/2006 low of 1.0834). 1.1387 must hold in order for the triangle to remain intact.
Strategy - Bearish against 1.1387 targeting 1.1000 and 1.0900.