Australian Dollar Crosses Work Higher Well-Defined Support Levels


AUDCAD – “Ultimately, we look for a 4th wave correction to end near the 38.2% of .8288-.9391 at .8977.” A B wave (second wave within a 3 wave correction) may have ended at .9254. As long as .9254 holds, we look for a C wave to take price under .9053 to the 38.2% of .8293-.9399 at .8977. A C wave decline would end a larger 4th wave and lead to a resumption of the uptrend. The 38.2% fibo at .8977 intersects with channel support at on March 14th.

AUDJPY – We are still looking for a test of the 61.8% fibo of 82.09-96.47 at 87.57 but the AUDJPY has turned up from the confluence of a short term support line / 200 day SMA. Near term resistance is at the 38.2% of 95.98-88.49 at 91.34. As long as price remain below 92.61, we’ll look for a decline to come under 88.50 and challenge the aforementioned Fibo level and long term channel support drawn off of the June 2004 and March 2006 lows.

AUDNZD – The AUDNZD is working higher from an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The “shoulders’ are at 1.1137 (12/26) and 1.1139 (2/26). The pair pierced the neckline and turned down yesterday but we still expect a break to the upside. A break above 1.1484 exposes the October high at 1.1667. Short term support is at the 2/27 high at 1.1306 (reinforced by the 20 day SMA at 1.1288) but price needs to remain above 1.1123 in order to keep the bullish bias at the forefront.