-AUDCHF tests 200 day SMA
-AUDCAD channel support at .86
-AUDNZD at top of range
[B]
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
The AUDCHF is trading at channel support, which is defended by the 21 day SMA near .82. Only a drop below .8120 would turn the near term trend bearish and shift focus to the April 7th low at .7985.
[B]
Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
I wrote last week of “the risk of at least a corrective pullback. Watch the 200 day SMA for support as well as a former daily low at .8456.” A pullback has occurred and there may be some additional downside. There is potential support from an Elliott channel at .8585 today…that line increases about 15 pips per day. A push above .8946 could complete a 5 wave rally from .7719 and lead to a top and reversal. .9150 (resistance from August 08) is a bullish objective.
[B]
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
Additional weakness is likely given that the advance from 1.0603 is in 5 waves and wave 5 of that advance is extended. 1.1632 is the bottom of the 4th wave and near the 50% of 1.0603-1.2954 at 1.1720, which is the target area. I favor additional weakness and a drop below 1.20 in the next several weeks.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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