Australian Dollar Crosses

-AUDCHF and AUDCAD at risk of reversing
-AUDNZD in center of multi-week range; upside favored

Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc

The multi month AUDCHF rally (which is choppy and corrective in nature) is nearing the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from 1.0091; at .8882. This is a potentially significant level that could see a reversal. RSI divergence as well as completion of what looks like an ending diagonal from .8048 warn of a turn.

Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar

There is no confirmation of a top but be on the lookout for one because warning signs (including divergence with RSI and 5 waves up from .7719 in what is probably a C wave) indicate that the AUDCAD rally is unsustainable. A turn is expected.

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

The AUDNZD decline that ended just shy of the 61.8% of 1.2009-1.2949 at 1.2360 may have been a small second wave within an ongoing impulse from 1.2009. The larger trend is bullish above 1.2009 and a break through 1.30 is expected. I wrote last week that “in the event that a complex second wave is underway from 1.2949, the AUDNZD would dip below 1.2380 but just temporarily before the next bull leg.” The pair dipped to 1.2376 and has turned up. A bottom can not be confirmed at that level but the upside is favored against 1.2009

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Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>[/I]