Awlrighty then (for all you spot FOREXperts): what's the 'deal' with TRY/RON?

Beginner Questions
1

Yes, it’s me, Dale, asking a question about a FOREX pair!!! LOL!!! How about that!!!

Can anybody tell me why (they think anyway) the value of the Turkish Lira (TRY) has been falling against the Romanian Leu (RON) almost in a straight line since around December 2010??? I mean to say (and of course this is going to be a ‘dead giveaway’ as to my lack of ‘what is needed’ to understand fundamentals): Turkey has oil right??? Romania is part of the EU right??? Oil has been moving steadily up for some time now and, well, the EU, from all the ‘babble’ that I hear on a daily basis, could be, let’s say, ‘in better shape’ not??? What does Romania have??? So in MY mind anyway: it should be the other way around but it’s not.

Of course: TECHNICALLY I can tell you when to long the pair but I’m trying to (just this once mind you) ‘broaden my horizons and understanding’ (for want of a better phrase)!!! LOL!!! TECHNICALLY I’m seeing a ‘bet the farm’ long-term trade (long at some point) (yes: BAD CHOICE OF WORDS i.e. I’m not going to ‘bet the farm’ but you know what I mean). Put another way: as many of you will know I have a ‘long only bias’ which TO THIS DAY I just cannot ‘shake’ and of course that’s ‘cost’ me i.e. every single one of my trading systems would have caught that downtrend almost from it’s beginnings and you’d STILL be short the pair TODAY (with one of them you would not even have been whipsawed not even once)!!!

Regards,

Dale.

2

Turkey lowered it’s key interest rates in December '10 - hence the fall against everything. They did this to try and lower their trade deficit which had been hurt by the troubles springing up throughout MENA. Turkey doesn’t have much oil - it imports >90% of what it needs so this has had an effect on their imports. If MENA settles down again and their trade deficit gets in better shape or if inflation concerns take a stronger hold they’ll raise interest rates again at which point it’d be a good long trade possibly. I’m pretty sure there’s easier trades out there though.

3

Thank you. I appreciate it. How the HELL do you know all of this stuff!!! LOL!!! Actually I didn’t know that (obviously) i.e. I really did think (or remember reading somwhere) that Turkey had oil.

Easier trades??? Easier spot FOREX trades MAYBE but ‘you know me’ and what I trade and as far as spot FOREX goes I really only look at the exotics because they ‘tend to trend’ far longer and far ‘better’ in my opinion and given my trading style I (obviously) don’t have issues with the spreads.

Oh well: back to my ‘little dots and lines’ then I guess.

But thanks: I appreciate the input.

Regards,

Dale.

4

I think oil from the ME is transported through Turkey on to Europe - especially from neighboring Iraq. I think they’ve got coal and other minerals but not oil.