BabyPips.com London Session Recap

PipDiddy · September 21, 2018, 1:56pm

London Session Recap: GBP Crushed By Media Blitz, CHF Catches A Bid

The pound got a rather severe pounding during the morning London session, very likely because of renewed Brexit fears due to the media blitz against British PM Theresa May’s perceived failure in Salzburg.

One currency’s loss is another currency’s gain. And in this case, it was apparently the Swissy that benefited from the pound’s pain.

French flash manufacturing PMI: 52.5 vs. 53.3 expected, 53.5 previous
French flash services PMI: 54.3 vs. 55.3 expected, 55.4 previous
German flash manufacturing PMI: 53.7 vs. 55.7 expected, 55.9 previous
German flash services PMI: 56.5 vs. 55.0 expected, 55.0 previous
Euro Zone flash manufacturing PMI: 53.3 vs. 54.5 expected, 54.6 previous
Euro Zone flash services PMI: 54.7 vs. 54.4 expected, 54.4 previous
U.K. public sector net borrowing: £5.B vs. £2.9B expected, -£3.9B previous

Major Events/Reports:

Media blitz against Theresa May

There were already rumblings yesterday that British PM Theresa May’s meeting with E.U. leaders at the Salzburg E.U. summit didn’t go too well.

And today, the British media machine unleashed a media blitz that, well, didn’t paint a pretty picture of Theresa May and reignited Brexit-related concerns to boot.

BBC News has a compilation of today’s headlines, but here are a few (courtesy of BBC Editor Allie Hodgkins-Brown) to give y’all a feel of what the headlines were about.

Euro Zone PMI reports

Markit released the latest batch of PMI reports for Germany, France, and the Euro Zone as a whole. And unfortunately, most of them failed to meet expectations.

Focusing only on the PMI reports for the Euro Zone as a whole, the manufacturing PMI reading dropped even further from 54.6 to a 24-month low of 53.3 in September, which is rather disappointing since the market was only expecting a downtick to 54.5.

The services PMI reading, meanwhile, improved slightly from 54.4 to a three-month high of 54.7.

Overall, however, the PMI reports painted a negative picture since the Euro Zone’s composite PMI fell from 54.5 to a four-month low of 54.2.

And according to Markit, the slump in the manufacturing PMI reading was due to “export orders stagnating for the first time in over five years.”

Chris Williamson, Markit’s Chief Business Economist, explained that stagnant growth in export orders was due to “Trade wars, Brexit, waning global demand (notably in the auto industry), growing risk aversion, destocking and rising political uncertainty both within the Eurozone and further afield.”

And while the services PMI reading improved, Markit noted that “New inflows of business slowed … and backlogs of work showed the second-weakest rise in over a year, hinting at slower service sector activity and employment growth in coming months.”

Risk-friendly ending in Europe

The major European equity indices are enjoying another bout of risk-taking during today’s morning London session, so Europe is apparently on track to closing out the week on a high note.

And as usual, market analysts were attributing the risk-friendly vibes on relief buying as trade-related jitters ease amid hopes that China and the U.S. may finally sit down and reason together.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.56% to 1,505.38
Germany’s DAX was up by 0.69% to 12,411.52
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.62% to 3,425.75

Major Market Mover(s):

GBP

The pound got a severe pounding during the session, apparently because of renewed Brexit-related concerns due to the media blitz against Theresa May.

GBP/USD was down by 74 pips (-0.56%) to 1.3172, GBP/JPY was down by 102 pips (-0.69%) to 148.45, GBP/CHF was down by 122 pips (-0.96%) to 1.2584

EUR

The euro was the second weakest currency of the morning London session. And the euro’s weakness appears to have been due to the Euro Zone’s disappointing PMI reports, although the disappointing Brexit-related headlines may have also weighed on the euro.

EUR/USD was down by 23 pips (-0.20%) to 1.1760, EUR/JPY was down by 44 pips (-0.34%) to 132.53, EUR/CHF was down by 69 pips (-0.62%) to 1.1234

CHF

The euro was the best-performing currency of the morning London session, even though risk-taking persisted in the European equities market.

And based on price action, the Swissy began gaining strength at around the same time that the pound began to tank, so it’s probable that renewed Brexit-related concerns sent safe-haven flows towards the Swissy.

USD/CHF was down by 39 pips (-0.40%) to 0.9553, AUD/CHF was down by 36 pips (-0.51%) to 0.6959, NZD/CHF was down by 36 pips (-0.56%) to 0.6380

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: Headline (0.3% expected vs. -0.2% previous) and core (0.6% expected vs. -0.1% previous) readings for Canadian retail sales
12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s CPI (-0.1% expected vs. 0.5% previous); read Forex Gump’s Event Preview
1:45 pm GMT: Markit’s U.S. flash manufacturing PMI (55.1 expected vs. 54.7 previous)
1:45 pm GMT: Markit’s U.S. flash manufacturing PMI (54.9 expected vs. 54.8 previous)

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PipDiddy · September 24, 2018, 12:30pm

London Session Recap: GBP Extends Gains, EUR Also Catches A Bid

The pound extended its recovery from the earlier Asian session, apparently because of Brexit Secretary Raab’s comments.

As for other currencies of note, the euro is also noteworthy since it finished in second place. And the apparent catalyst was Claudio Borghi’s comments.

The yen is also noteworthy since it was the weakest currency of the session, even though risk aversion was the name of the game.

German IFO business expectations: 101.0 vs. 100.2 expected, 101.3 previous
German IFO business climate: 103.7 vs. 103.6 expected, 103.9 previous
U.K. CBI industrial trends: -1 vs. 5 expected, 7 previous

Major Events/Reports:

Borghi speaks

Claudio Borghi, Chief Financial Officer of the League, was interviewed earlier and he said that a budget deficit of 2.5% of GDP will be enough to keep markets calm, provided the budget deficit is couple with a “credible growth policy.”

Other than that, he also said that an “exit from the euro is out of the question,” which is kinda of a big deal since the League, a member of the ruling coalition government, has expressed anti-euro sentiments in the past. In fact, Borghi has personally expressed some euroskeptic comments himself.

Raab speaks

U.K. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab got some press time earlier. And despite last week’s media blitz against British PM Theresa May for her perceived failure at the Salzburg E.U. summit, Raab reassured listeners when he said that:

And with regard to the E.U.’s “stubborn” tone last week, Raab tried to shrug that off by saying that:

However, Raab also warned that the U.K. is ready for a “no deal” Brexit.

Downbeat start in Europe

Europe is starting the new trading week on a gloomy mood since the the major European equity indices were broadly in negative territory.

And as usual, market analysts were attributing the risk-friendly vibes on relief buying as trade-related jitters ease amid hopes that China and the U.S. may finally sit down and reason together.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.21% to 1,502.51
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.23% to 12,402.07
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.27% to 3,421.05

U.S. equity futures were also down in the dumps, which implies that the risk-off vibes may spillover into the upcoming U.S. session.

S&P 500 futures were down by 0.14% to 2,929.75
Nasdaq futures were down by 0.32% to 7,526.25

Global bond yields rise

Despite the risk-off vibes in European equities market and U.S. equity futures market, global bond yields were broadly on the rise, with Italian bond yields leading the way.

And market analysts were quick to point to Borghi’s comment and expectations that Italy will comply with the E.U.’s budget rules, although they also say that expectations for a Fed rate hike this week helped to push bond yields higher.

German 10-year bond yield up by 1.95% to 0.470%
French 10-year bond yield up by 2.32% to 0.798%
Italian 10-year bond yield up by 2.63% to 2.913%
U.K. 10-year bond yield up by 1.42% to 1.576%
U.S. 10-year bond yield up by 0.25% to 3.076%
Canadian 10-year bond yield up by 0.27% to 2.435%

Major Market Mover(s):

GBP

The pound’s recovery appears to be evolving into a full-blown rally, so much so that the pound is not only the best-performing currency of the session, but of the day (so far) as well.

And market analysts are still saying that the pound is getting a lift from short-covering after last week’s slump, although Raab’s comments also apparently helped in pushing the pound higher across the board.

EUR

The euro finished the session in second place and also happens to be the second top-performing currency of the day.

And euro began to attract buyers after Claudio Borghi’s comments. And the better-than-expected readings from IFO also appeared to help propel the euro higher.

JPY

Despite the risk-off vibes, the yen was the biggest loser of the session, likely because yen pairs were taking directional cues from rising global bond yields.

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: Canadian wholesales sales (0.4% expected vs. -0.8% previous)
1:00 pm GMT: ECB Overlord Draghi will testify before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee

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suzaanroshan · September 24, 2018, 1:00pm

Wow that was perfect
Thank you for sharing

PipDiddy · September 25, 2018, 2:09pm

London Session Recap: GBP In The Lead, EUR Whipsaws On Praet’s Comment

The pound was the top-performing currency of the morning London session yet again, thanks to growing hopes for a Brexit deal.

The euro, meanwhile extended its gains from the earlier session, but was kicked lower across the board when ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet tried to play down ECB Overlord Draghi’s comments from yesterday.

Dip demand for the euro was quite notable, though, and the euro quickly recovered its losses to finish the session in second place.

Other than those two, the Greenback and the Loonie are also noteworthy since they were the biggest losers of the session.

German WPI m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected, 0.1% previous
French business survey: 107.0 vs. 109.0 expected, 110.0 previous
Spanish PPI y/y: 5.2% expected vs. 4.6% previous

Major Events/Reports:

ECB’s Praet speaks

ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet gave a presser earlier. And when he was asked about ECB Overlord Draghi’s comment that there will be a “relatively vigorous” pick up in underlying inflation, Praet just shrugged that comment off, saying that “There was nothing new.”

Praet then presented a more cautious tone when he said that (emphasis mine):

BOJ’s Kuroda speaks

BOJ Shogun Kuroda gave a speech in Osaka earlier during the session. And he basically repeated the BOJ’s message that the super loose monetary policy won’t be changing for an “extended period” because of Japan’s low inflation.

However, Kuroda also implied that the BOJ has a tightening bias when he said that (emphasis mine):

BOE’s Vlieghe speaks

Earlier today, BOE MPC Member Vieghe delivered a speech at Imperial College Business School in London.

His actual speech didn’t really present anything new. However, Vleighe was asked about his own personal views on the BOE’s monetary policy during the Q&A portion.

And Vleighe simply reiterated that his views are unchanged, so he thinks that one or two rate hikes per year would probably be the right way to go.

Vlieghe was also asked about what he thinks about Brexit. And Vlieghe answered that the BOE as a whole is still holding on to its baseline scenario that the U.K. will leave the E.U. with a deal.

However, Vlieghe also said that the BOE is open to changing its view on Brexit when he said that:

Trump tweets (about Iran)

I’ll just leave this here…

Risk appetite revived in Europe

After yesterday’s downbeat start, risk appetite got revived during today’s morning London session, sending the major European equity indices broadly higher.

And according to market analysts, the risk-friendly vibes in Europe were due to higher U.S. oil prices, which pushed energy shares higher, as well as growing optimism that Italy will play nice and follow the E.U.’s budget rules.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.46% to 1,504.36
Germany’s DAX was up by 0.27% to 12,384.55
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.33% to 3,420.95

Major Market Mover(s):

GBP

The pound was the top-performing currency of the morning London session (yet again) and is also the best-performing currency of the day (yet again).

BOE’s Vlieghe had some positive things to say, but Vlieghe gave his speech at the middle of the session, while the pound found buyers right from the get-go.

And according to market analysts, the pound enjoyed another round of buying because of growing hopes for the Brexit deal, and they’re still citing Raab’s comments from yesterday’s morning London session.

GBP/USD was up by 55 pips (+0.42%) to 1.3163, GBP/JPY was up by 49 pips (+0.33%) to 148.49, GBP/CAD was up by 74 pips (+0.44%) to 1.7052

EUR

Like yesterday, the euro finished the session in second place and also happens to be the second top-performing currency of the day (so far).

The euro actually began moving higher a few hours before the morning London session rolled around, apparently because of a La Stampa report claiming that the Italian government is ready to comprise by having a budget deficit of only 1.9% of GDP (E.U.’s limit is 3%).

The euro then proceeded to move even higher (except against GBP) when the session finally rolled around, but got gutted when ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet spoke.

Dip demand was rather strong, though, and so the euro quickly recovered from the drop and then closed out the session in second place.

It’s not very clear what caused the euro to quickly recover, but optimism that Italy will place nice with the E.U. is a likely reason since the rally in European equity indices is partially attributed to Italy-related hopes.

Another likely reason is improved expectations for an ECB rate hike since market analysts point out that market players have already fully priced-in a September 2019 ECB rate hike.

EUR/USD was up by 20 pips (+0.17%) to 1.1781 after hitting a session low of 1.1733, EUR/JPY was up by 12 pips (+0.10%) to 132.90 after hitting a session low of 132.46, EUR/CAD was up by 30 pips (+0.20%) to 1.5262 after hitting a session low of 1.5219

CAD

The Loonie was the weakest currency of the session. There were no direct catalysts, but the Loonie appears to have been hit by selling pressure after oil benchmarks pared their gains when Trump tweeted that he has no plans to meet with Iran’s Rouhani.

USD/CAD was up by 3 pips (+0.02%) to 1.2955, AUD/CAD was up by 7 pips (+0.08%) to 0.9398, NZD/CAD was up by 11 pips (+0.12%) to 0.8619

Watch Out For:

1:00 pm GMT: U.S. HPI (0.2% expected, same as previous)
1:00 pm GMT: S&P/CS composite U.S. HPI (6.2% expected vs. 6.3% previous)
2:00 pm GMT: CB’s consumer confidence (132.2 expected vs. 133.4 previous)
2:00 pm GMT: Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index (22 expected vs. 24 previous)

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · September 26, 2018, 1:51pm

London Session Recap: USD Broudly Higher Ahead Of FOMC Statement, CHF Slumps

The Greenback caught a bid and was the top-performing currency of the morning London session.

The Swissy, meanwhile, found itself at the very bottom of the forex heap, probably because of the modest risk-taking in Europe, although SNB meddling can’t be ruled out.

As for other currencies of note, the euro and the pound are both worth highlighting since the former was hit by late sellers while the latter extended its slide from the earlier session but later found late buyers.

French consumer confidence: 94 vs. 97 expected, 96 previous
Credit Suisse economic expectations: -30.8 vs. -14.3 previous
U.K. gross mortgage approvals: 39.4K vs. 39.7K expected, 39.6K previous
CBI’s U.K. realized sales: 23 vs. 18 expected, 29 previous
FOMC statement and presser later
RBNZ statement also later

Major Events/Reports:

Moscovici speaks about Italy’s budget

European Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici was interviewed by La Stampa earlier during the session.

And Moscovici stressed that Italy’s 2019 budget deficit “must stay well below 2%” of GDP.

This is below the E.U.’s 3.0% limit, but is more than double that of the previous Italian government’s 0.8% target. The E.U. is therefore compromising with the new Italian government by allowing the government to have a higher budget deficit.

Tria drops hints about the Italian budget

Italy will release its Economic and Financial Document tomorrow, which will finally reveal the government’s economic and fiscal targets for next year.

And earlier today, Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria gave us some hints on what the document will include.

In a speech before a retail association, Tria said that the budget will include the “citizens’ income” that the 5-Star Movement has been demanding.

Tria also tried to calm investors by saying that:

And with regard to the budget deficit target, Tria didn’t really reveal any details but he did imply that the budget will comply with the E.U.’s fiscal rules (and may even be below 2.0% of GDP) when he said that tomorrow’s economic and fiscal targets will “send a message to markets on the sustainability of our debt.”

Praet speaks

ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet already showed his dovish feathers yesterday. And, well, he did so again earlier today when he shot down calls for rate hikes sooner:

He also said that “Risks [to the Euro Zone economy] are mounting,” but he did try to sound somewhat optimistic by also saying that “But so far we haven’t seen any impact on real data… I’m not excessively worried.”

Barnier tweets

E.U. Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier announced this somewhat positive Brexit-related news earlier.

Cautious risk-taking in Europe

The major European equity indices tossed and turned but most closed the session on a higher note, so risk appetite appears to be the more prevalent sentiment in Europe.

And market analysts say that the modest risk-taking in Europe was just due to risk sentiment spillover from the earlier Asian session, while jitters ahead of the FOMC statement helped to cap gains.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.08% to 1,506.78
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.07% to 12,364.72
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.32% to 3,429.95

Major Market Mover(s):

USD

The Greenback reigned supreme even as the FOMC statement loomed over the horizon.

There were no catalysts for the Greenback’s rise, but some market analysts were suggesting that we may just be seeing some preemptive positioning ahead of the FOMC statement.

USD/JPY was up by 13 pips (+0.12%) to 112.99, AUD/USD was down by 15 pips (-0.21%) to 0.7245, NZD/USD was down by 18 pips (-0.27%) to 0.6644

CHF

The Swissy was the biggest loser of the session and also happens to be the biggest loser of the day (so far).

The risk-friendly vibes in Europe may have been the reason for the safe-haven Swissy’s weakness, but I’ve also got a sneaking suspicion that the SNB may have been meddling in the forex market again since the Swissy’s weakness was rather notable.

USD/CHF was up by 38 pips (+0.40%) to 0.9689, EUR/CHF was up by 21 pips (+0.19%) to 1.1372, NZD/CHF was up by 11 pips (+0.17%) to 0.6439

EUR

The euro was initially range-bound and headed for a mixed finish. However, it closed out the session in second-to-last place, thanks to an influx of late sellers.

As to what enticed sellers to attack, that’s not yet very clear, but most EUR pairs began to find sellers after Praet spoke.

However, selling pressure began to really ramp up after Tria’s speech (even though Tria said some positive things), so it’s possible that some EUR bulls were just taking some profits off the table.

EUR/USD was down by 25 pips (-0.21%) to 1.1736, EUR/JPY was down by 13 pips (-0.10%) to 132.61, EUR/CAD was down by 22 pips (-0.15%) to 1.5215

GBP

The pound extended its slide (except against CHF) and was the second worst-performing currency of the session. However, the pound was rushed by late buyers and ended up as the second top-performing currency of the session

Market analysts couldn’t pinpoint a catalyst for the pound’s slide, but they suggest that lingering Brexit-related jitters and the looming FOMC statement may have prompted some profit-taking after a two-day rally.

As for the later rally, Barnier’s tweet may have been the catalyst since the pound found support after Barnier’s tweet.

GBP/USD was down by 15 pips (-0.11%) to 1.3160, GBP/CHF was up by 34 pips (+0.27%) to 1.2750, GBP/NZD was up by 32 pips (+0.16%) to 1.9805

Watch Out For:

1:00 pm GMT: CB’s leading Chinese index (1.1% previous)
1:00 pm GMT: SNB’s quarterly bulletin will be released
2:00 pm GMT: U.S. new home sales (631K expected vs. 627K previous)
2:30 pm GMT: U.S. crude oil inventories (-0.7M expected vs. -2.1M previous)
6:00 pm GMT: Fed expected to raise Fed Funds Rate target range by 25 bps to 2.00%-2.25% during the FOMC statement; read Forex Gump’s Event Preview
6:30 pm GMT: FOMC presser
9:00 pm GMT: RBNZ statement (OCR steady at 1.75% expected)
10:00 pm GMT: RBNZ presser

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PipDiddy · September 27, 2018, 2:16pm

London Session Recap: EUR Recovers Ahead Of Budget Meeting, CHF Broadly Weaker

After getting whupped earlier, the euro staged a broad-based recovery during the morning London session. The euro wasn’t the top-performing currency of the session, though, since that honor goes to the pound.

The Swissy, meanwhile, was the weakest currency of the morning London session and also happens to be the weakest currency of the day (so far).

Other than those three, the Greenback is also worth noting since it was only the third best-performing currency of the session but is currently on track to closing out the day in first place.

And market analysts were attributing the Greenback’s strength to the Fed’s decision to change its characterization of its monetary policy, as well as safe-haven demand because of Italy-related worries.

German GFK consumer sentiment: 10.6 vs. 10.5 expected, same as previous
Euro Zone consumer confidence: -2.9 as expected vs. -1.9 previous
Euro Zone industrial sentiment: 4.7 vs. 5.1 expected, 5.6 previous
German preliminary HICP m/m: 0.4% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.0% previous
German preliminary HICP y/y: 2.2% vs. 2.0% expected, 1.9% previous
Lots of central bankers will be speaking later
Italian cabinet meeting on budget targets later

Major Events/Reports:

Italy-related headlines

There were lots and lots of Italy-related headlines during the session, which is only natural since the Italian government is expected to present its economic and fiscal targets later.

Focusing only on the most interesting and market-moving headlines, Italian Deputy Prime Minister and 5-Star Movement Leader Luigi Di Maio said earlier that he’s “not aware of any delay.”

That statement is within the context of earlier rumors that today’s cabinet meeting on the budget will be delayed.

There were also rumors that Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria has supposedly threatened to resign because the coalition government was pushing for a budget deficit in excess of 2.0% of GDP.

And it didn’t help that Italian Deputy Prime Minister and League Leader Matteo Salvini said earlier that wants a budget deficit above 2.0% of GDP.

However, Tria’s spokeswoman shot down those rumors, saying that “I deny that he wants to resign. The minister is working on the budget targets ahead of today’s cabinet meeting.”

Speaking of the cabinet meeting, that’s scheduled for 4:00 pm GMT. However, there were rumors that the meeting may indeed be delayed but will start at 6:00 pm GMT, which is only a two-hour delay.

Barnier tweets about Brexit (again)

Risk aversion prevails in Europe (but fading)

The major European equity indices opened lower and then plumbed fresh intraday lows.

However, support eventually formed and the major European equity indices began clawing their way higher as the session progressed.

Bearish pressure prevailed, though, since the European bourses failed to climb back above positive territory.

And market analysts say that the risk-off vibes were due to Italy-related worries because of the news from earlier that Italy’s budget meeting may get delayed.

As to what caused the major European equity indices to trim some of their losses, that’s not yet very clear.

Relief buying is a possibility, though, since Di Maio did say that he’s not aware of any delay. And there were also later rumors that the budget meeting may be delayed but only by two hours.

Another possible reason is that the rise in oil prices helped to alleviate some of the damage as well, since energy shares were almost in positive territory by the end of the session.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.04% to 1,508.99 but off the day’s low at 1,501.17
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.14% to 12,367.45 but off the day’s low at 12,272.59
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.09% to 3,429.95 but off the day’s low at 3,408.95

Major Market Mover(s):

EUR

After getting whupped earlier, the euro staged a broad-based recovery during the morning London session.

The euro had a harder time against the Greenback, though, and had no winning chance against the pound, but the euro was able to win out against everything else quite easily.

As to what allowed the euro to recover, there’s no apparent catalysts, but relief buying and/or short-covering is a likely reason since Di Maio said that he’s not aware of any delay and later rumors came out that the delay (if any) will only be 2 hours.

EUR/USD was up by 2 pips (+0.02%) to 1.1703, EUR/JPY was up by 18 pips (+0.14%) to 132.07, EUR/CHF was up by 33 pips (+0.30%) to 1.1365

CHF

The Swissy was the biggest loser of the morning London session, probably because of easing risk aversion in Europe. However, I’ve got a feeling that the SNB may have also been involved since the Swissy showed weakness from the get-go, even though risk aversion initially dominated.

USD/CHF was up by 30 pips (+0.31%) to 0.9710, CAD/CHF was up by 14 pips (+0.20%) to 0.7432, NZD/CHF was up by 10 pips (+0.15%) to 0.6444

GBP

The pound was the best-performing currency of the morning London session. The pound got a lift when Barnier tweeted that the E.U. is working for an orderly Brexit that “should include a close economic relationship” with the U.K.

However, the euro began climbing higher across the board at around 8:00 am GMT, which is before Barnier’s tweet, and there was no apparent catalyst back then.

GBP/USD was up by 9 pips (+0.07%) to 1.3141, GBP/JPY was up by 30 pips (+0.20%) to 148.29, GBP/CHF was up by 46 pips (+0.36%) to 1.2760

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: Headline (1.9% expected vs. -1.7% previous) and core (0.4% expected vs. 0.1% previous) readings for U.S. durable goods orders
12:30 pm GMT: Final estimate for Q2 U.S. GDP growth (no change from 4.2% expected)
12:30 pm GMT: U.S. goods trade balance (-$70.6B expected vs. -$72.0B previous)
12:30 pm GMT: U.S. initial jobless claims (208K expected vs. 201K previous)
12:30 pm GMT: Preliminary U.S. wholesale inventories (0.3% expected vs. 0.6% previous)
1:30 pm GMT: ECB Overlord Draghi is scheduled to give a short speech
2:00 pm GMT: U.S. pending home sales (-0.2% expected vs. -0.7% previous)
2:00 pm GMT: BOE Guv’nah Carney will speak
4:00 pm GMT: Italian Cabinet meeting on budget targets (may be delayed by 2 hours)
8:30 pm GMT: Fed Chair Powell is expected to give a speech
9:45 pm GMT: BOC Guv’nah Poloz will be giving a speech

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · September 28, 2018, 2:40pm

London Session Recap: EUR Tumbles As Italy-Related Concerns Grow

The euro was the biggest loser of the morning London session, thanks to growing Italy-related concerns after E.U. Economic Commissioner Moscovici warned Italy to reduce its “explosive” budget deficit target.

The euro wasn’t the only currency that was on the receiving end of a beat-down, though, since the pound also got a good thrashing.

And as odd as it sounds, the Loonie was able to overpower the safe-haven yen to claim the top spot, even though there were no apparent catalysts for the Loonie’s strength and oil prices were retreating to boot.

French consumer spending m/m: 0.8% vs. 0.3% expected, 0.1% previous
French preliminary HICP y/y: 2.5% vs. 2.6% expected, same as previous
KOF Swiss economic barometer: 102.2 vs. 100.0 expected, 98.9 previous
Spanish flash HICP y/y: 2.2% vs. 2.3% expected, 2.2% previous
German unemployment change: -23K vs. -9K expected, -10K previous
U.K. current account: -£20.3B vs. -£19.4B expected, -£15.7B previous
U.K. final GDP q/q: unchanged at 0.4% as expected
Italian HICP y/y: 1.6% vs. 1.7% expected, 1.6% previous
Euro Zone flash HICP y/y: 2.1% as expected vs. 2.0% previous
Euro Zone flash core HICP y/y: 0.9% vs. 1.1% expected, 1.0% previous

Major Events/Reports:

Moscovici speaks (about Italy’s budget)

European Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici was speaking earlier and he hit out at Italy’s decision to have a budget deficit that’s 2.4% of GDP, saying that:

Moscovici also said that the E.U. may impose sanctions against Italy if it doesn’t reduce its deficit target, but Moscovici also said that he’s not too keen to penalize Italy.

Euro Zone’s HICP report

It’s the end of the trading month, so a bunch of inflation reports for the Euro Zone and its member states were released earlier.

And focusing only on the HICP report for the Euro Zone as a whole, that showed that the Euro Zone’s headline HICP rose by 2.1% year-on-year in September, which is in-line with expectations but a tick faster compared to the previous month’s annual pace of +2.0%.

The reading is also well above the ECB’s forecast that headline HICP will increase by 1.7% year-on-year in 2018, as reported in the September Eurosystem/ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections.

Other than that, HICP less energy, one of the ECB’s preferred measures for core inflation, came in at +1.3%, maintaining the previous month’s annual pace.

The reading is also meeting the ECB’s forecast that HICP less energy will print a 1.3% annual increase by year-end.

As for HICP less energy and unprocessed food, another of the ECB’s preferred measures for core inflation, that decelerated even further from +1.2% to +1.1%.

Despite the weaker reading, it’s still meeting the ECB’s forecast of +1.1% by the end of the year.

Disappointing U.K. data

The U.K. released a couple of economic reports during the morning London session. And they were generally viewed in a negative light.

First up is the final estimate for Q2 U.K. GDP growth, which was unchanged at +0.4% quarter-on-quarter. However, the year-on-year reading was revised lower from +1.3% to +1.2%, contrary to expectations that it would remain unchanged.

Looking at the details of the GDP report, the downgraded annual reading was due mainly to the downgrade in mining and quarrying output (-1.1% vs. +0.3% originally), as well as the downgrade in construction output (+0.4% vs. +0.8% originally).

Using the expenditure approach, the weaker annual reading was mainly due to the downgraded reading for business investment (-0.2% vs. +0.8% previous).

Moving on, the U.K.’s balance of payment report also failed to impress since that revealed that the U.K.’s account deficit widened from £15.7 billion to £20.3 billion in Q2. The market was only expecting it to widen to £19.4 billion.

Gloomy ending in Europe

Europe is closing out the week on a downbeat note since almost all of the major European equity indices were bleeding out.

And quite naturally, market analysts blamed the risk-off vibes on Italy-related jitters after the Italian government defied the E.U. by opting for a budget deficit that’s 2.5% of GDP.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 1.02% to 1,500.39
Germany’s DAX was down by 1.62% to 12,235.34
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 1.70% to 3,390.55

U.S. equity futures were also feeling the pain, so the risk-off vibes may carry over into the upcoming U.S. session.

S&P 500 futures were up by 0.29% to 2,911.50
Nasdaq futures were up by 0.38% to 7,628.00

Major Market Mover(s):

EUR

The euro was the biggest loser of the session and is also the worst-performing currency of the day (so far).

And the apparent catalysts for the euro’s weakness is Moscovici’s warning that Italy should reduce its budget deficit target, which caused Italy-related concerns to flare up.

EUR/USD was down by 45 pips (-0.39%) to 1.1580, EUR/JPY was down by 50 pips (-0.38%) to 131.35, EUR/CHF was down by 44 pips (-0.39%) to 1.1311

GBP

The pound was the second biggest loser of the session. And market analysts were blaming the pound’s slide mainly on the U.K.’s GDP report.

The pound was sliding a couple of hours before the GDP report was released, though, and those same market analysts suggested that the pound may also be under pressure because of profit-taking ahead of next week’s Conservative Party conference.

GBP/USD was down by 27 pips (-0.21%) to 1.3041, GBP/JPY was down by 28 pips (-0.19%) to 147.94, GBP/CHF was down by 24 pips (-0.19%) to 1.2741

CAD

Whether it was preemptive positioning ahead of Canada’s GDP report or lingering hopes that Canada will be able to hammer out a trade deal with the U.S., the Loonie somehow managed to overpower the safe-haven yen to claim the top spot of the session.

USD/CAD was down by 12 pips (-0.09%) to 1.3016, EUR/CAD was down by 77 pips (-0.51%) to 1.5069, GBP/CAD was down by 55 pips (-0.33%) to 1.6971

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: U.S. personal income (0.4% expected vs. 0.3% previous) and personal spending (0.3% expected vs. 0.4% previous)
12:30 pm GMT: U.S. core PCE price index (0.1% expected vs. 0.2% previous)
12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s monthly GDP growth (0.1% expected vs. 0.0% previous)
12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s RMPI (0.8% expected vs. 0.7% previous) and IPPI (0.6% expected vs. -0.2% previous)
1:20 pm GMT: BOE Deputy Governor David Ramsden has a speech
1:45 pm GMT: Chicago PMI (62.0 expected vs. 63.6 previous)
2:00 pm GMT: Revised University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment (100.6 expected vs. 100.8 previous)

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 1, 2018, 2:36pm

London Session Recap: CAD Adds To Gains, CHF Struggles As Trade Optimism Persists

The Loonie was still in demand during the morning London session, thanks to confirmation that NAFTA has been successfully renegotiated (and renamed to USMCA).

Trade-related optimism also continued to fuel risk-taking, which is likely why the safe-haven Swissy was struggling during the session.

Other than those two, the euro is also worth highlighting since it was the second top-performing currency of the session, despite negative low and mid-tier economic reports, as well as lingering Italy-related concerns.

German retail sales m/m: -0.1% vs. 0.4% expected, -1.1% previous
Swiss retail sales y/y: 0.4% vs. as expected, -0.9% previous
Spanish manufacturing PMI: 51.4 vs. 52.7 expected, 53.0 previous
Swiss manufacturing PMI: 59.7 vs. 62.1 expected, 64.8 previous
Italian manufacturing PMI: 50.0 vs. 50.3 expected, 50.1 previous
French final manufacturing PMI: unchanged at 52.5 as expected
German final manufacturing PMI: unchanged at 53.7 as expected
Euro Zone final manufacturing PMI: 53.2 vs. no change from 53.3 expected
U.K. manufacturing PMI: 53.8 vs. 52.6 expected, 53.0 previous
U.K. net lending to individuals: £4.0B vs. £4.8B expected, £3.8B previous
Mortgage approvals in the U.K.: 66.44K vs. 64.50K expected, 65.16K previous
Euro Zone jobless rate: 8.1% as expected vs. 8.2% previous

Major Events/Reports:

Trump tweets about NAFTA (or USMCA)

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland issued a joint statement earlier, confirming the rumors about a renegotiated NAFTA deal.

Also, the renegotiated NAFTA deal will be called the “United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement” or USMCA for short.

Trump also chirped in later. And in typical Trump fashion, Trump did so via a couple of tweets.

U.K.’s manufacturing PMI

It’s a brand new month, which means another batch of U.K. PMI reports from Markit.

And today, we finally got our hands on the U.K.’s manufacturing PMI report for the September period. And it was better-than-expected since the report revealed that the headline reading climbed from 53.0 to 53.8, contrary to expectations that it will slide to 52.6.

The details were also pretty good since the report noted that “[r]ates of expansion in output and new orders gained traction.”

New orders growth was driven mainly by domestic demand but “new export business [growth] saw a modest recovery following August’s solid contraction.”

In addition, employment “also increased at the end of the third quarter.”

Moreover, “September data signalled a strengthening of both input cost and output price inflationary pressures.”

Raab speaks

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab gave a speech at the Conservative Party’s Conference earlier today.

And he took the opportunity to hit out at the E.U., saying that the E.U. has a “a starkly one-sided approach to negotiation” and left “no room for serious compromise,” adding that “If the EU want a deal, they need to get serious. And they need to do it now.”

Raab also reiterated that the U.K. is ready for a no deal Brexit.

Hammond speaks

Raab wasn’t the only speaker at the Conservative Party Conference who touched on the Brexit topic since Finance Minister Philip Hammond also got a chance to speak and he said that:

However, Hammond was more conciliatory towards the E.U. when he said that “The mood is undoubtedly that people [over at the E.U.] want to do a deal with the U.K.”

Hammond also expressed optimism that the British economy would improve once a deal is hammered out:

Upbeat start in Europe

After last week’s beat-down, the major European equity indices are starting the new week (and month) on a positive note.

And like in the earlier session, market analysts were attributing the risk-friendly vibes on trade-related optimism.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.34% to 1,508.67
Germany’s DAX was up by 0.71% to 12,332.31
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.52% to 3,419.55

U.S. equity futures were in positive territory, so the risk-on vibes may carry over into the upcoming U.S. session.

S&P 500 futures were up by 0.63% to 2,937.50
Nasdaq futures were up by 0.80% to 7,716.75

Major Market Mover(s):

CAD

The Loonie raked in more gains and was the top-performing currency of the session, thanks to optimism over the renegotiated NAFTA deal.

USD/CAD was down by 33 pips (-0.26%) to 1.2806, NZD/CAD was down by 27 pips (-0.32%) to 0.8456, AUD/CAD was down by 20 pips (-0.22%) to 0.9240

CHF

Unlike last week, the Swissy’s weakness made more sense during the session since risk-taking was the name of the game in Europe.

USD/CHF was up by 23 pips (+0.23%) to 0.9837, GBP/CHF was up by 24 pips (+0.19%) to 1.2812, CAD/CHF was up by 39 pips (+0.51%) to 0.7681

EUR

The euro caught a bid from the get-go and even managed to take ground from the Loonie at first, but was eventually forced to bend the knee to the Loonie’s overwhelming might.

The euro still managed to close out the session in second place, though, which is rather weird since there were no apparent catalysts and there were even disappointing low and mid-tier economic reports. And market analysts were even noting that Italy-related concerns haven’t gone away.

EUR/USD was up by 20 pips (+0.18%) to 1.1600, EUR/JPY was up by 22 pips (+0.17%) to 132.19, EUR/CHF was up by 45 pips (+0.39%) to 1.1410

Watch Out For:

1:00 pm GMT: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak
1:30 pm GMT: Markit’s Canadian manufacturing PMI (56.8 previous)
1:45 pm GMT: Markit’s final U.S. manufacturing PMI (no change from 55.6 expected)
2:00 pm GMT: ISM’s U.S. manufacturing PMI (60.1 expected, 61.3 previous)
2:00 pm GMT: U.S. construction spending (0.5% expected vs. 0.1% previous)
3:00 pm GMT: U.S. President Trump will speak
4:00 pm GMT: Canadian PM Justin Trudeau will speak
5:00 pm GMT: BOC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane has a speech

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 2, 2018, 5:08pm

London Session Recap: GBP & AUD Race To The Bottom, CHF Claims The Top Spot

The pound took hits and was the worst-performing currency of the morning London session, thanks to the U.K.’s disappointing PMI report, as well as Brexit-related jitters and concerns over British PM Theresa May’s leadership.

The Aussie also took hits and was the second biggest loser of the session, likely because of the risk-off vibes.

Speaking of risk sentiment, the risk-off vibes in Europe likely helped to drive up demand for the safe-haven currencies (CHF, USD, JPY). Demand for the Swissy was notably stronger, though.

Other than those, the euro is also noteworthy since the euro showed weakness before the morning London session rolled around, thanks to comments from Italy’s Borghi.

The euro managed to win out against the Aussie and the pound, though. Even so, it still closed out the session in third-to-last place since there was some follow-through selling on most EUR pairs.

U.K. Nationwide HPI m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected, -0.5% previous
Australian commodity prices y/y: 4.8% vs. 6.6% previous
Spanish unemployment change: 20.4K vs. 28.2K expected, 47.0K previous
U.K. construction PMI: 52.1 vs. 52.8 expected, 52.9 previous
Euro Zone PPI m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected, 0.7% previous

Major Events/Reports:

Italy’s Borghi speaks

Claudio Borghi, the President of the Budget Committee in Italy’s Chamber of Deputies, was speaking earlier. And he said some rather distressing things since he openly said that Italy should leave the Euro Zone.

Here are the relevant comments:

However, he also toned down his comments, saying that Italy is trying to play nice with the E.U.

And in a later Bloomberg interview, he was asked about his anti-euro comments, and Borghi admitted that he personally dislikes the euro and wants Italy to leave the euro.

However, Borghi also stressed that the Italian government’s official policy is that:

Italy’s Conte speaks

Italian PM Giuseppe Conte got some press time after Borghi spoke. And Conte used that opportunity to reiterate the Italian government’s official position that:

U.K. construction PMI

The U.K.’s September construction PMI report was a disappointment since it showed that the headline reading. fell from 52.9 to a six-month low of 52.1. The market was only expecting a downtick to 52.8. Also, the weaker reading marks the second consecutive month of ever weaker readings.

And according to Markit, all construction categories reported weaker activity, and civil engineering was particularly weak.

However, the future looks a bit more promising since Markit found that “The rate of new order growth picked up to its strongest since December 2016.”

And according to survey respondents, the faster increase in new order growth was due to “resilient demand and an upturn in new invitations to tender.”

Also, payroll numbers increased. Heck, Markit even noted that “[t]he latest increase in employment was the fastest since December 2015.”

And with regard to inflation, Markit found that “[r]ising demand for inputs contributed to a sharp and accelerated increase in average cost burdens during September.”

Risk aversion strikes back

Yesterday’s risk-taking was apparently short-lived since the major European equity indices opened broadly lower and then proceeded to plumb fresh intraday lows as the session progressed.

And market analysts were blaming the risk-off vibes on Borghi’s comments, which caused Italian bank shares to plunge, dragging other financial shares lower and poisoning overall risk sentiment.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.67% to 1,496.76
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.68% to 12,254.87
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.97% to 3,382.15

Major Market Mover(s):

GBP

The pound was the biggest loser of the morning London session. And while the U.K.’s disappointing construction PMI report did help to kick the pound lower, the pound was already showing weakness before the morning London session rolled around.

And according to market analysts, the pound was under bearish pressure because of growing concerns that Theresa May’s Brexit plan is sowing division among the Conservative Party, which raises the odds that she may have to face a leadership challenge.

GBP/USD was down by 52 pips (-0.41%) to 1.2957, GBP/JPY was down by 51 pips (-0.35%) to 147.50, GBP/CHF was down by 66 pips (-0.52%) to 1.2746

AUD

The Aussie was the second biggest loser of the morning London session, likely because of the risk-off vibes in Europe.

Interestingly enough, the higher-yielding Kiwi was also a loser, but the Aussie was notably weaker and the Aussie became particularly weak after the RBA statement.

AUD/USD was down by 25 pips (-0.25%) to 0.7176, AUD/JPY was down by 21 pips (-0.25%) to 81.70, AUD/CHF was down by 33 pips (-0.46%) to 0.7058

CHF

All the safe-haven currencies (CHF, USD, JPY) were in demand during the session, thanks to the risk-off vibes in Europe.

And between the three, it was the Swissy that reigned supreme … during this session at least, since the yen is still the overall champion of the day (so far).

USD/CHF was down by 12 pips (-0.13%) to 0.9836, EUR/CHF was down by 24 pips (-0.21%) to 1.1340, NZD/CHF was down by 16 pips (-0.24%) to 0.6476

Watch Out For:

2:00 pm GMT: U.S. Fed Governor Randal Quarles will testify before the Senate Banking Committee
4:45 pm GMT: U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech
Dairy auction currently underway (-1.3% previous); auction usually ends at around 2:00 pm GMT

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 3, 2018, 2:42pm

London Session Recap: AUD & NZD Tumble Despite Risk-Friendly Vibes

The Swissy was under pressure, thanks to the risk-friendly vibes in Europe. However, the Swissy was only in third-to-last place since the biggest losers of the session were actually the higher-yielding Aussie and Kiwi.

And the wonky price action doesn’t stop there since the Greenback and the yen were fighting for the top spot. And again, risk-taking was the name of the game in Europe.

The euro’s price action is a bit wonky as well since the euro was broadly lower during the session despite more reports in support of that Italy-related rumor from earlier.

But then again, it’s possible that the euro may be under pressure because of profit-taking. Basically, a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario may have played out.

Germany’s banks out on German Unity Day holiday
Spanish services PMI: 52.5 vs. 52.9 expected, 52.7 previous
Italian services PMI: 53.3 vs. 52.8 expected, 52.6 previous
French final services PMI: 54.8 vs. no change from 54.3 expected
German final services PMI: 55.9 vs. no change from 56.5 expected
Euro Zone final services PMI: unchanged at 54.7 as expected
U.K. services PMI: 53.9 vs. 54.0 expected, 54.3 previous
Euro Zone retail sales m/m: -0.2% vs. 0.2% expected, -0.6% previous

Major Events/Reports:

Italy really planning to follow E.U. budget rules?

There were rumors earlier (courtesy of Corriere della Sera) that Italy will push through with its planned 2.4% budget deficit in 2019, but would gradually reduce its budget deficit to 2.2% of GDP in 2020, and then 2.0% in 2020.

Well, a Reuters report was released during the session and it appears to support that earlier rumor since the report cited unnamed “government sources” as claiming that:

Italy’s Salvini speaks

Italian Deputy Prime Minister (and leader of the euroskeptic League) Matteo Salvini was speaking earlier and added credence to the Reuters report and the earlier Corriere della Sera report since Salvini said that the Italian government’s goal is to reduce both debt and deficit after 2019.

Salvini didn’t provide any specifics, but he at least affirmed that the Italian government does seem to want to play nice with the E.U.

Fed Evans speak

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (a non-voting FOMC member) was interviewed by Bloomberg late into the session.

And he gave this rather positive assessment of the U.S. economy:

He also presented an optimistic outlook on the economy, while also hinting heavily that other FOMC members have the same views:

And when he was asked about a December rate hike, Evans said that: “I am quite comfortable with that, yes.”

But again, do note that Evans is a non-voting FOMC member, so that reply is not particularly meaningful.

However, Evans also shared that the Fed Funds Rate should climb to “a slightly restrictive setting” of around 3.0% to 3.25%.

And if y’all can still recall, the Fed recently dropped the term “accommodative” when characterizing its monetary policy.

Fed Chair Powell tried to downplay this change in language, but Evans is implying here that the change in language may indeed be a sign that the Fed is switching to a more restrictive role in order to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating, which likely means more rate hikes down the road.

U.K. services PMI

The U.K.’s September services PMI report was earlier today and it was also a disappointment since the headline reading dropped from 54.3 to 53.9. It’s only a tick lower compared to the 54.0 consensus, so it wasn’t too disappointing.

Anyhow, Markit noted that the weaker reading was due mainly to new order growth easing slightly. And “a number” of survey respondents “suggested that political uncertainty had weighed on business confidence and been a factor behind tighter budget setting among clients.”

On a happier note, jobs growth in the service sector accelerated, “with the rate of job creation the strongest since February.”

Also, “the overall rate of input price inflation was the fastest for three months and well above the low seen in February.”

But on a slightly more downbeat note (for CPI), “prices charged by service providers increased at only a moderate pace, with the latest rise the slowest for just over one year.”

Risk-taking revived in Europe

Europe enjoyed a bout of risk-taking during the morning London session, sending the major European equity indices broadly higher.

And quite naturally, market analysts were attributing the risk-friendly vibes to the rumor from earlier that Italy plans to pare its budget deficit in 2020 and 2021, which drove up demand for Italian banks and pushed other financial shares higher, improving overall risk sentiment.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.56% to 1,506.69
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up by 0.57% to 7,517.00
France’s CAD 40 was up by 0.40% to 5,494.07

U.S. equity futures were also enjoying the risk-friendly vibes.

S&P 500 futures were up by 0.23% to 2,935.25
Nasdaq futures were up by 0.25% to 7,671.75

Major Market Mover(s):

AUD & NZD

The higher-yielding Aussie and Kiwi were the second biggest loser and THE biggest loser of the session respectively.

They also happen to be the biggest losers of the day (so far), which is rather weird since risk-taking is the dominant sentiment in Europe.

However, a possible reason is that the two are just vulnerable to the Greenback’s strength. I suspect, in particular, that rising U.S. bond yields may be negating the Aussie and Kiwi’s yield advantage and also puts interest rate differentials and monetary policy divergence into play (in favor of the Greenback).

And in the Aussie’s case, the Aussie may have also been tracking gold prices, which were in retreat during the session, thanks to the Greenback’s rise, so it still boils down to the Greenback’s strength after all.

AUD/USD was down by 27 pips (-0.37%) to 0.7148, AUD/JPY was down by 26 pips (-0.33%) to 81.38, AUD/CAD was down by 25 pips (-0.27%) to 0.9175

NZD/USD was down by 25 pips (-0.39%) to 0.6552, NZD/JPY was down by 26 pips (-0.35%) to 74.59, NZD/CAD was down by 25 pips (-0.29%) to 0.8409

USD & JPY

The Greenback reigned supreme during the morning London session, but the safe-haven yen gave the Greenback a good fight.

The Greenback’s strength made sense since U.S. bond yields were on the rise and the Greenback may have also been feeding off the euro’s weakness, but the yen’s strength is a bit weird since risk-taking was the prevailing sentiment in Europe.

Market analysts were also attributing the Greenback’s strength on Fed Evans’ comments. However, the Greenback climbed higher on most pairs from the get-go and a few hours before Evans even got to talk.

EUR/USD was down by 34 pips (-0.30%) to 1.1547, GBP/USD was down by 19 pips (-0.15%) to 1.2981, USD/CHF was up by 34 pips (+0.35%) to 0.9884

USD/JPY was up by 6 pips (+0.05%) to 113.84, EUR/JPY was down by 33 pips (-0.26%) to 131.46, GBP/JPY was down by 14 pips (-0.10%) to 147.79

Watch Out For:

12:15 pm GMT: ADP’s U.S. non-farm employment change (184K expected vs. 163K previous)
1:45 pm GMT: Markit’s final U.S. services PMI (no change from 52.9 expected)
2:00 pm GMT: ISM’s U.S. non-manufacturing PMI (58.0 expected vs. 58.5 previous)
2:30 pm GMT: U.S. crude oil inventories (1.1M expected vs. 1.9M previous)
6:00 pm GMT: U.S. Fed Governor Lael Brainard will be speaking
6:15 pm GMT: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a short speech
8:00 pm GMT: U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak in a panel discussion

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 4, 2018, 1:55pm

London Session Recap: EUR & GBP Broadly Higher, NZD Still Taking Hits

The surge in U.S. bond yields stalled during the morning London session, so the Greenback’s strength also got sapped.

And the euro and the pound were apparently taking advantage of that. Although positive Brexit-related rumors also helped to push the pound higher, while a comment from an ECB member appears to have attracted buyers for the euro.

As to why the Aussie and Kiwi weren’t able to bounce back, that’s probably because of the risk-off vibes in Europe. Heck, the Kiwi even extended its slide despite the Greenback’s overall weakness during the session.

U.S. Challenger jobs cuts y/y: 70.9% evs. 13.7% previous
Canada’s Ivey PMI report coming up

Major Events/Reports:

Brexit-related rumors

The Financial Times released a report before the morning London session even rolled around.

And according to that report, an unnamed “senior Irish official involved in Brexit talks” supposedly claimed that Ireland is supportive of British PM Theresa May’s plan of having “an all-UK customs union with the EU” since Irish officials supposedly think that “It looks like it would resolve that issue [of the border].”

That’s not the only major Brexit-related rumor floating out there, though, since a Reuters report was released during the session and it cited an unnamed “European Union source” as saying that Theresa May’s proposal for solving the Irish border issue is supposedly “a step in the right direction” and “make finding a compromise possible.”

ECB’s Rehn speaks

ECB Member and Finnish Central Bank Final Boss Olli Rehn gave a presser near the start of the session.

And he said that (emphasis mine):

That highlighted bit is rather interesting since the market is expecting a rate hike by September 2019.

And remember, the ECB’s forward guidance is that rates won’t budge “at least through the summer of 2019,” which is generally considered to mean no rate hikes until the October 2019 ECB statement (at the earliest).

Is that a hawkish hint?

Anyhow, Rehn was also asked about Italy and its effect on the ECB’s monetary policy. And Rehn answered as follows:

Rehn is therefore implying here that the ECB is not too concerned with Italy … for now at least.

Risk aversion in Europe

The major European equity indices got slapped broadly lower during today’s morning London session, so risk aversion was clearly the dominant sentiment in Europe.

And market analysts say that the risk-off vibes in Europe were due to the recent surge in U.S. bond yields, since that fueled expectations that the Fed will continue to hike, which would naturally mean tighter credit conditions.

And that, in turn, dampened demand for defensive shares, as well as shares of companies that have relatively high debt.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.76% to 1,495.01
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.26% to 12,255.80
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.10% to 3,386.55

U.S. equity futures were also down in the dumps, so the risk-off vibes may carry over into the upcoming U.S. session.

S&P 500 futures were up by 0.42% to 2,919.25
Nasdaq futures were up by 0.58% to 7,620.50

Major Market Mover(s):

GBP

The pound easily dominated its peers during the session and is also currently the best-performing currency of the day (so far).

And pound bulls can thank the Brexit-related rumors for that since the pound began finding buyers before the morning London session even rolled around, thanks to that Financial Times report. And more buyers would come out later when the Reuters report was released.

It also likely helped that the Greenback’s strength faltered when the morning London session started, thanks to the dip in U.S. bond yields.

GBP/USD was up by 48 pips (+0.37%) to 1.2991, GBP/AUD was up by 65 pips (+0.36%) to 1.8333, GBP/NZD was up by 78 pips (+0.39%) to 2.0009

EUR

The euro finished the session in second place and is currently on track to closing out the day in third place after the pound and the yen.

The euro was likely feeding off the Greenback’s overall weakness, although Rehn’s comments also apparently had a positive effect.

EUR/USD was up by 28 pips (+0.24%) to 1.1504, EUR/AUD was up by 36 pips (+0.22%) to 1.6235, EUR/NZD was up by 47 pips (+0.27%) to 1.7720

NZD

The Kiwi was the biggest loser of the session. Yes, it (barely) lost out to the broadly retreating Greenback. And we can probably blame the risk-off vibes in Europe for that.

NZD/USD was down by 3 pips (-0.04%) to 0.6492, NZD/JPY was down by 13 pips (-0.17%) to 74.14, NZD/CAD was down by 12 pips (-0.14%) to 0.8352

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: U.S. initial jobless claims (215K expected, same as previous)
1:15 pm GMT: U.S. Governor Randal Quarles will be speaking
2:00 pm GMT: Canada’s Ivey PMI (62.3 expected vs. 61.9 previous)
2:00 pm GMT: U.S. factory orders (2.1% expected vs. -0.8% previous)

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 5, 2018, 1:52pm

London Session Recap: CHF & JPY Struggle, AUD Higher, USD Mixed Ahead Of NFP Report

Today is another NFP Friday so price action was subdued for the most part as traders hunkered down ahead of the U.S. NFP report.

The session wasn’t a complete snooze fest, though, since the Swissy and the yen were both broadly lower despite the risk-off vibes in Europe.

The Aussie, meanwhile, was nudged broadly higher, probably because of rising gold prices and/or short-covering after getting a beating this week.

Other than those, the Greenback is also worth mentioning since it was mixed but a net loser ahead of the NFP report.

German factory orders m/m: 2.0% vs. 0.8% expected, -0.9% previous
German PPI m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected, same as previous
French budget balance: -€97.3B vs. -€82.8B previous
French trade balance: -€5.63B vs. -€4.85B expected, -€3.49B previous
Swiss foreign currency reserves: CHF 740B vs. CHF 731B previous
Swiss CPI m/m: 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected, 0.0% previous
Halifax U.K. HPI m/m: -1.4% vs. 0.2% expected, -0.2% previous
Italian retail sales m/m: 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected, -0.1% previous
U.S. NFP report coming up=
Canada’s jobs report also on tap

Major Events/Reports:

NFP Friday!

Today is another NFP Friday! And as usual, both directional movement and volatility got sapped on most pairs as traders kept their heads down and sat on their hands ahead of the U.S. NFP report.

By the way, if you’re planning to trade the NFP report, then you may wanna check out Forex Gump’s Event Preview for the upcoming NFP report.

And while you’re at it, you may also wanna check out Forex Gump’s Event Preview for Canada’s jobs report since that will be released simultaneously with the NFP report.

Italy’s Salvini speaks

Italian Deputy Prime Minister (and leader of the euroskeptic League) Matteo Salvini got some press time earlier.

And he unleashed a verbal lashing against European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, saying that:

Brexit-related rumor

According to two unnamed “diplomatic sources” that were cited in a Reuters report, the E.U. supposedly believes that a divorce deal with the U.K. is “very close“.

There were no further details, but the report did cause the pound to jump higher across the board.

The report was released just before the morning London session rolled around, though. And during the session itself, the pound closed out the session mixed but a net winner.

Another downbeat day in Europe

Risk aversion continued to plague Europe during the morning London session, sending the major European equity indices broadly lower for another day.

And like yesterday, market analysts are still blaming the elevated levels of U.S. bond yields for the risk-off vibes since higher U.S. bond yields signal higher inflation expectations and more rate hikes, which would mean tighter credit conditions.

However, it’s also possible that we’re just seeing the usual skittishness ahead of the NFP report.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.45% to 1,484.06
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.64% to 12,165.17
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.39% to 3,362.55

U.S. equity futures were also in the red, which implies that risk aversion may persist into the upcoming U.S. session. That may change, though, since the U.S. NFP report is coming up.

S&P 500 futures were up by 0.04% to 2,907.00
Nasdaq futures were up by 0.12% to 7,505.00

Global bond yields rise

Global bond yields were on the rise during the session. And market analysts attributed that to the steady rise in U.S. bond yields. And the rise in U.S. bond yields, in turn, was attributed to speculation that the upcoming NFP report will print a strong reading.

German 10-year bond yield up by 2.23% to 0.549%
French 10-year bond yield up by 0.54% to 0.888%
Italian 10-year bond yield up by 2.46% to 3.414%
U.K. 10-year bond yield up by 0.66% to 1.680%
U.S. 10-year bond yield up by 0.29% to 3.204%
Canadian 10-year bond yield up by 0.63% to 2.575%

Major Market Mover(s):

AUD

Despite the risk-off vibes, the Aussie was the best-performing currency of the morning London session and is also arguably the only real mover of the session.

There were no apparent catalysts for the Aussie’s rise, but gold was climbing higher, which may have given AUD pairs a boost. Short-covering is also a possibility since the Aussie is one of the bigger losers this week.

AUD/USD was up by 13 pips (+0.18%) to 0.7073, AUD/JPY was up by 17 pips (+0.21%) to 80.56, AUD/CHF was up by 17 pips (+0.24%) to 0.7028

CHF

The Swissy was the biggest loser of the morning London session, which is rather strange since risk aversion was the more dominant sentiment in Europe. Is the SNB meddling again?

USD/CHF was up by 6 pips (+0.06%) to 0.9935, NZD/CHF was up by 9 pips (+0.15%) to 0.6428, GBP/CHF was up by 11 pips (+0.08%) to 1.2968

JPY

The yen barely won out against the Swissy and was the second weakest currency of the session, likely because of rising bond yields since risk aversion prevailed in Europe.

USD/JPY was up by 4 pips (+0.03%) to 113.89, NZD/JPY was up by 10 pips (+0.13%) to 73.68, GBP/JPY was up by 8 pips (+0.06%) to 148.66

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: U.S. non-farm payrolls (+185K expected vs. +201K previous), jobless rate (3.8% expected vs. 3.9% previous), and average hourly earnings (0.3% expected vs. 0.4% previous); read Forex Gump’s preview
12:30 pm GMT: U.S. trade balance (-$53.6B expected vs. -$50.1B previous)
12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s net employment change (+25.0K expected vs. -51.6K previous), jobless rate (5.9% expected vs. 6.0% previous), and labor force participation rate (steady at 65.3% expected); read Forex Gump’s preview
12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s trade balance (-$0.5B expected vs. -$0.1B previous)
4:40 pm GMT: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has a speech
7:00 pm GMT: U.S. consumer credit ($15.0B expected vs. $16.6B previous)

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 8, 2018, 1:35pm

London Session Recap: JPY Dominates In Risk-Off Session, GBP & EUR Take Hits

Both the euro and the pound were already feeling some bearish pressure earlier. And that bearish pressure only intensified during today’s morning London session, sending both currencies to the bottom of the forex heap.

The pound’s slide was attributed to a reality check after last week’s positive Brexit-related headlines sent the pound higher across the board.

The euro’s slide, meanwhile, was blamed on Italy-related developments over the weekend. And it didn’t help that Italy’s Salvini delivered some rather combative comments during the session.

Other than those two, the yen is also worth highlighting since it was the top-performing currency of the session, likely because of the risk-off vibes in Europe and lack of action on the BOJ’s part to push JGB yields down.

The Aussie and Kiwi are also noteworthy since the two were nudged broadly higher despite falling commodity prices and the risk-off vibes in Europe. The Greenback was broadly weaker, though, which may have lent support to the Aussie and Kiwi. It’s also possible that the PBoC’s move may be helping to provide support for the two. Of course, it’s also likely that we’re just seeing some short-covering after last week’s beat-down.

Swiss jobless rate: 2.5% as expected vs. 2.6% previous
German industrial production m/m: -0.3% vs. 0.5% expected, -1.3% previous
Euro Zone Sentix investor confidence: 11.4 vs. 11.8 expected, 12.0 previous

Major Events/Reports:

Italy’s Salvini speaks

Italian Deputy Prime Minister (and leader of the euroskeptic League) Matteo Salvini spoke a few times during the session.

The first time he spoke, Salvini tried to reassure investors by reiterating that the Italian government is not planning to leave the euro, “not today, tomorrow or the day after.”

He also called on ratings agencies, saying that “I hope no one has prejudice toward this government, or strange intentions.”

However, in a later speech with French National Rally’s Marine Le Pen, Salvini took a more combative stance by lashing out against European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici (yet again).

And this time, Salvini said that:

And that’s not the end of it. In another speech, Salvini said that “We will not backtrack, we will not backtrack” on the budget.

This is in response to news over the weekend that Italy received a letter from the European Commission. And, well, the letter had these to say about Italy’s budget:

A (cautious) message from Theresa May

Theresa May’s spokesman got some press time earlier and he struck a more cautious tone on the state of Brexit negotiations.

To be more specific, he stressed that (emphasis mine):

Those comments were apparently in response to a report from last week that the E.U. supposedly believes that a divorce deal with the U.K. is “very close”, as well as a report that claimed that E.U. is supposedly getting ready to present “an unprecedented ‘super-charged’ free-trade agreement” to the U.K.

The spokesman was also asked if U.K. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab will still meet with E.U. Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier this week.

However, the spokesman refused to comment on that, which implies that there may be a problem.

Gloomy start in Europe

Europe started the new trading week where the last one ended, so risk aversion is still the name of the game in Europe and the major European equity indices are starting the new week on the back foot.

And like last week, market analysts were still blaming the risk-off vibes on the elevated levels of U.S. bond yields.

However, growing concerns that the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China would eventually have a negative effect on the Chinese economy were also cited for the risk off vibes.

Another reason cited for the risk-off vibes in Europe are renewed fears over Italy’s budget, which caused Italian banking shares to sink.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.81% to 1,466.50
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.78% to 12,017.38
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.69% to 3,320.55

U.S. equity futures were also weighed down by the risk-off vibes.

S&P 500 futures were up by 0.22% to 2,887.50
Nasdaq futures were up by 0.43% to 7,403.75

Major Market Mover(s):

GBP

The pound was the biggest loser of the session and is also currently the biggest loser of the day (so far).

The pound has been encountering sellers since earlier and market analysts attributed that to the Greenback’s strength, as well as profit-taking as investors reassess the probability that a Brexit deal can be successfully hammered out.

However, the pound’s slide accelerated when Theresa May’s spokesman delivered those cautious remarks.

GBP/USD was down by 42 pips (-0.32%) to 1.3041, GBP/JPY was down by 104 pips (-0.70%) to 147.85, GBP/NZD was down by 110 pips (-0.54%) to 2.0209

EUR

The euro was the biggest loser of the session and is also currently the second biggest loser of the day (so far), thanks to renewed Italy-related concerns.

EUR/USD was down by 20 pips (-0.18%) to 1.1477, EUR/JPY was down by 72 pips (-0.55%) to 130.11, EUR/NZD was down by 70 pips (-0.39%) to 1.7786

JPY

The yen was the top-performing currency of the morning London session, likely because of the risk-off vibes in Europe, as well as lack of action on the BOJ’s part, even though the yields of 10-year JGBs are above 0%.

USD/JPY was down by 42 pips (-0.37%) to 113.37, CAD/JPY was down by 33 pips (-0.38%) to 87.27, CHF/JPY was down by 57 pips (-0.50%) to 114.17

Watch Out For:

Columbus day holiday in the U.S.A. today
Canada will be celebrating Thanksgiving day today

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 9, 2018, 2:04pm

London Session Recap: USD & JPY Fight For Top Spot, GBP & EUR Race To The Bottom

The euro and the pound had another rough time during today’s morning London session, with Italy-related concerns being blamed for the euro’s weakness and Brexit being cited as the reason for the pound’s slide.

The Greenback and the yen, meanwhile, were in high demand, very likely because of the persistent risk-off vibes.

German trade balance: €18.3B vs. €15.9B expected, same as previous
NFIB U.S. small business index: 107.9 vs. 108.9 expected, 108.8 previous

Major Events/Reports:

Italy-related updates

According to a report from Il Sole 24 Ore, the European Commission is supposedly set to reject Italy’s draft budgetary plan later this month for violating the E.U.’s budget rules under the Stability and Growth Pact.

That’s not really new, though, since E.U. officials such as Dombrovskis and Moscovici have openly expressed concern about Italy’s budget.

The European Commission also sent a letter over the weekend, which noted that Italy’s budget is “a source of serious concern.”

In other news, Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria spoke before the Italian Parliament during the session. And he said that Italy’s “lag in economic growth and employment … is no longer acceptable.”

Tria then defended the Italian government’s budget plan when he described the plan as “courageous, but not fearless and irresponsible.” He also defended the government’s growth targets (1.5% in 2019, 1.6% in 2020, and 1.4% in 2021) as “prudent“.

Barnier tweets (about Brexit)

E.U. Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier had this somewhat positive message during the session, which allowed the pound to lick its wounds.

Another risk-off day in Europe

The risk-off vibes just won’t go away, so the major European equity indices slumped lower for yet another day.

And according to market analysts, today’s bout of risk aversion was due to Italy-related jitters, as well as growth-related concerns after the IMF downgraded its global growth forecasts earlier in the day.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.42% to 1,455.47
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.61% to 11,874.70
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.51% to 3,291.05

Major Market Mover(s):

EUR

The euro was the biggest loser of the morning London session and is also currently the biggest loser of the day.

The euro actually had the upper hand against the pound for most of the session. However, the euro encountered more sellers when Tria spoke, while the pound began to recover after Barnier’s tweet and ahead of Raab’s speech before Parliament.

EUR/USD was down by 40 pips (-0.35%) to 1.1434, EUR/JPY was down by 63 pips (-0.48%) to 129.35, EUR/NZD was down by 59 pips (-0.33%) to 1.7777

GBP

The pound closed out the session in second-to-last place. There were no negative catalysts for the pound’s slide, but market analysts were still pointing to growing Brexit-related concerns, which prompted market players to take their profits and run.

However, the pound did find support after Barnier tweeted that somewhat positive message on Brexit.

But then again, Brexit Secretary Raab is expected to speak before Parliament on the current state of Brexit talks later, so the pound’s rise may have also been due to short-covering.

GBP/USD was down by 42 pips (-0.32%) to 1.3035, GBP/JPY was down by 67 pips (-0.45%) to 147.47, GBP/NZD was down by 61 pips (-0.30%) to 2.0265

JPY & USD

The safe-havens yen and Greenback were the top-performing currencies of the session, likely because of the persistent risk-off vibes in Europe.

And between the two, it was the yen that came out on top, likely because the BOJ has yet to push down rising 10-year JGB yields. Although some market analysts also say that falling U.S. equities have dampened demand for the Greenback a bit.

USD/JPY was down by 15 pips (-0.13%) to 113.12, AUD/JPY was down by 27 pips (-0.33%) to 79.84, NZD/JPY was down by 11 pips (-0.16%) to 72.76

NZD/USD was down by 6 pips (-0.09%) to 0.6432, AUD/USD was down by 14 pips (-0.20%) to 0.7058, USD/CAD was up by 29 pips (+0.23%) to 1.2998

Watch Out For:

12:15 pm GMT: Canadian housing starts (203K expected vs. 201K previous)
12:30 pm GMT: Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab expected to speak before Parliament on the state of Brexit talks
2:00 pm GMT: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak
2:35 pm GMT: BOE MPC Member Ben Broadbent will testify before the Economic Affairs Committee
6:00 pm GMT: BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will be speaking

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 10, 2018, 1:47pm

London Session Recap: AUD & NZD Pare Gains, USD Higher In Risk-Off Session

U.S. bond yields turned higher during the morning London session, so risk aversion aversion returned and the Greenback regained its mojo, while the Aussie and Kiwi were forced to return their gains and beat a hasty retreat.

Other than those, the euro and the pound are also noteworthy since they tried to fight back against the Greenback. And interestingly enough, both currencies caught a bid at around 9:00 am GMT.

Demand for the pound made some sense since BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg was tweeting some relatively positive Brexit-related stuff at the time and the U.K. is still on course for a stronger Q3 GDP reading, despite the miss in the monthly reading.

As for the euro, well, the euro’s price action is rather wonky since the euro strengthened even though there were no positive catalysts at the time and there was even a Reuters report which claimed that the German government downgraded its growth forecasts for this year and the next.

French industrial production m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.8% previous
Italian industrial production m/m: 1.7% vs. 0.7% expected, -1.6% previous
U.K. GDP m/m: 0.0% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.4% previous
U.K. goods trade balance: -£11.2B vs. -£10.9B expected, -£10.4B previous
Construction output in the U.K. m/m: -0.7% vs. 0.0% expected, 0.5% previous
U.K. industrial production m/m: 0.2% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.4% previous
U.K. manufacturing production m/m: -0.2% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.0% previous

Major Events/Reports:

Brexit-related updates

There were a few Brexit-related headlines during the session. And focusing only on the most important ones, first up is a report from The Times, which claimed that a “group of about 30 Labour MPs would be prepared to defy Jeremy Corbyn” and endorse Theresa May’s Brexit plan in order to avoid a “no-deal” Brexit.

Next is this positive comment from Danuta Hubner, the Chair of the European Parliament Constitutional Affairs Committee:

And finally, here are a bunch of tweets from BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg:

U.K. data dump

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a bunch of economic of report for the U.K. during the session.

First up is the U.K.’s Index of Production report, which showed that total industrial production in the U.K. rose by 0.2% month-on-month in August, beating expectations for 0.1% rise, but weaker compared to the previous month’s +0.4%.

But on an upbeat note the previous reading was actually upgraded from +0.1%.

Anyhow, a quick look at the details show that manufacturing output fell by 0.2% month-on-month, which is the main reason why total industrial production in August is weaker compared to July.

Moving on, the next economic report is the U.K.'s August construction output report. And that revealed that construction output contracted by 0.7% month-on-month, which is a bigger decline compared to the -0.4% consensus.

Next up is the U.K.’s August trade report. And that showed that the U.K.’s trade deficit widened from £572 million to £1.27 billion since the 1.1% increase in exports were not enough to offset the 2.4% increase in imports.

And the increase in imports, in turn, was driven by the 3.1% increase in import of goods, which caused the goods trade deficit to widen from £10.4 billion to £11.2 billion, which is worse-than-expected since the market was expecting the goods trade deficit to widen only to £10.9 billion.

And the final economic report that was released during the session was the U.K.’s monthly GDP report.

And unfortunately, that revealed that the U.K’s GDP growth was stagnant in August, contrary to expectations that GDP would expand by 0.1% month-on-month.

However, July’s reading was upgraded from +0.3% to +0.4%, which is good. Also, the U.K.’s Q3 GDP will likely be stronger compared to Q2, provided September’s reading doesn’t print a negative number.

U.S. bond yields rise again

After sliding yesterday, U.S. bond yields were on the rise again today. And some market analysts were suggesting that the rise in U.S. bond yields may have been due to preemptive positioning ahead of U.S. economic data for later.

U.S. 30-year bond yield up by 0.56% to 3.388%
U.S. 10-year bond yield up by 0.60% to 3.227%
U.S. 5-year bond yield up by 0.52% to 3.073%
U.S. 2-year bond yield up by 0.44% to 2.902%

Risk aversion in Europe

The major European equity indices recovered during yesterday’s late London session, thanks to higher oil prices and retreating U.S. bond yields, according to market analysts.

However, risk aversion made its way back into Europe today, sending the major European equity indices lower.

And market analysts say that the risk-off vibes were due to U.S. bond yields turning higher again, as well as concerns surrounding China’s growth prospects, which dented demand for luxury stocks.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.27% to 1,462.11
Germany’s DAX was down by 0.56% to 11,909.71
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.42% to 3,308.65

Major Market Mover(s):

USD

The Greenback trumped its peers during the session, very likely because of the rise in U.S. bond yields and risk-off vibes in Europe.

USD/JPY was up by 12 pips (+0.10%) to 113.19, USD/CHF was up by 9 pips (+0.09%) to 0.9921, USD/CAD was up by 34 pips (+0.27%) to 1.2964

AUD & NZD

One currency’s gain is another currency’s pain. Well, in this case, two currencies were feeling the pain, namely the Aussie and Kiwi.

NZD/USD was down by 20 pips (-0.31%) to 0.6463, NZD/JPY was down by 16 pips (-0.22%) to 73.15, NZD/CHF was down by 14 pips (-0.22%) to 0.6413

AUD/USD was down by 28 pips (-0.40%) to 0.7096, AUD/JPY was down by 24 pips (-0.30%) to 80.31, AUD/CHF was down by 21 pips (-0.31%) to 0.7040

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: Canadian building permits (0.5% expected vs. -0.1% previous)
12:30 pm GMT: Headline (0.2% expected vs. -0.1% previous) and core (0.2% expected, -0.1% previous) readings for U.S. PPI
2:00 pm GMT: U.S. final wholesale inventories (no change from 0.8% expected)
9:45 pm GMT: New Zealand’s FPI (-0.5% previous)

This post first appeared here:

PipDiddy · October 11, 2018, 2:06pm

London Session Recap: AUD & NZD Higher Despite Risk-Off Vibes, USD & JPY Lag Behind

The Aussie was the top-performing currency of the morning London session, while the Kiwi was a net winner, which is rather interesting since risk aversion was the name of the game in Europe.

The Greenback and the yen, meanwhile, were the biggest losers of the session. And again, risk aversion was the dominant sentiment in Europe.

As for other currencies of note, the euro and the pound are also noteworthy since the pound found late buyers and was able to snag second place from the Kiwi. The euro, meanwhile, was steadily in demand throughout the session and eventually outpaced the Kiwi to close out the session in third place.

Both the euro and the pound may have been feeding off the Greenback’s weakness. And in the Greenback’s case, Brexit-related optimism have have also helped to provide support.

French final HICP y/y: 2.5% as expected, 2.6% previous
Spanish HICP y/y: 2.3% vs. 2.2% expected, same as previous
U.S. CPI report coming up

Major Events/Reports:

ECB’s meeting minutes

The minutes of the ECB’s most recent monetary policy meeting were released late into the session.

And after a quick read, there doesn’t seem to be anything new from what ECB Overlord Draghi said during the September 13 ECB presser.

Well, there was one interestiong bit. You see, the ECB downgraded its growth projections during the September ECB statement and Draghi explained the reason for the downgrades as follows:

However, the ECB still maintained that risks to the outlook were still “balanced” overall.

Well, the minutes reiterated that “balanced” outlook but also revealed that some ECB officials may be getting worried because the minutes noted that:

However, the ECB chose to keep its “balanced” outlook because the “underlying strength of the economy was judged to be mitigating downside risks to activity.”

Intense risk aversion in Europe

Risk aversion continued to plague Europe, sending the major European equity indices broadly and deeply lower during the morning London session.

And market analysts blamed the intense risk-off vibes on risk sentiment spillover from the earlier session since market analysts are still pointing to the sell-off in Wall Street as the reason for the feelings of doom and gloom in Europe.

Plunging oil prices may have also poisoned risk sentiment since oil and energy shares were the biggest loser of the session.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 1.80% to 1,417.17
Germany’s DAX was down by 1.30% to 11,560.51
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 1.44% to 3,220.65

U.S. bond yields plunge

U.S. bond yields have been falling since the earlier session (since yesterday’s U.S. session actually) and they continued to do so during the morning London session.

And according to market analysts, bond yields were dropping because of safe-haven demand for bonds because of the intense risk aversion in Europe, as well as jitters ahead of the U.S. CPI report.

U.S. 30-year bond yield down by 1.06% to 3.388%
U.S. 10-year bond yield down by 1.40% to 3.227%
U.S. 5-year bond yield down by 1.40% to 3.073%
U.S. 2-year bond yield down by 0.85% to 2.902%

U.S. bond yields weren’t the only ones in the red since most European bond yields were also in the red.

German 10-year bond yield up by 4.17% to 0.528%
French 10-year bond yield up by 1.25% to 0.888%
U.K. 10-year bond yield up by 1.85% to 1.698%

Major Market Mover(s):

AUD

The Aussie was the top-performing currency of the morning London session, even though risk aversion was the dominant sentiment.

There were no apparent catalysts, but U.S. bond yields were down and the Greenback was reeling in pain, so it’s likely that the Aussie was gaining at the Greenback’s expense.

It also probably helped that gold prices were on the rise during the session.

AUD/USD was up by 22 pips (+0.32%) to 0.7096, AUD/JPY was up by 28 pips (+0.35%) to 79.68, AUD/CHF was up by 13 pips (+0.19%) to 0.7007

USD & JPY

The Greenback and the yen were the biggest losers of the morning London session, despite the intense risk-off vibes.

The Greenback was likely down in the dumps because it’s tracking the fall in U.S. bond yields.

As for the yen, there’s no clear reason for that, but it’s possible that market players are becoming hesitant to load up on the yen after BOJ Member Makoto Sakurai warned during the earlier session that “there’s a risk that [Japan’s] growth could fall short of such main projections depending on the extent of protectionist moves and capital outflow from emerging economies.”

NZD/USD was up by 13 pips (+0.21%) to 0.6487, EUR/USD was up by 32 pips (+0.28%) to 1.1576, USD/CHF was down by 12 pips (-0.13%) to 0.9874

NZD/JPY was up by 18 pips (+0.24%) to 72.85, EUR/JPY was up by 42 pips (+0.32%) to 129.99, CHF/JPY was up by 20 pips (+0.18%) to 113.71

GBP

The pound was bid higher on most pairs during the session, but it only began taking ground from the Aussie and Kiwi late into the session. And there were enough buyers to allow the pound to win out against the Kiwi and claim second place (during this session at least).

There was no apparent reason for the later buyers, but market analysts have been noting that there are growing hopes for a Brexit deal before the October 18 E.U. Summit, thanks largely to Barnier’s comment yesterday. And that may have helped to boost the pound.

Of course, it’s also possible that the pound was just feeding off the Greenback’s weakness, but that doesn’t explain why the pound was able to overtake the Kiwi and fight back against the Aussie.

GBP/USD was up by 37 pips (+0.28%) to 1.3231, GBP/JPY was up by 49 pips (+0.33%) to 148.57, GBP/CHF was up by 20 pips (+0.15%) to 1.3064

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: Headline (0.2% expected, same as previous) and core (0.2% expected vs. +0.1% previous) readings for U.S. CPI; read Forex Gump’s Event Preview
12:30 pm GMT: U.S. initial jobless claims (207K expected, same as previous)
12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s NHPI (0.1% expected, same as previous)
3:00 pm GMT: U.S. crude oil inventories (2.3M expected vs. 8.0M previous)
9:30 pm GMT: Business NZ manufacturing index (52.0 previous)

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PipDiddy · October 12, 2018, 2:12pm

London Session Recap: GBP, EUR, CHF, & NZD Take Hits, AUD Broadly Higher

The European currencies (GBP, EUR, CHF) were in a three-way race to the bottom, with the pound ultimately winning the (dis)honor of being the session’s biggest loser.

The Aussie, meanwhile, was the biggest winner, likely because of the risk-on vibes and rising gold prices.

The Kiwi is also worth highlighting since it was also in demand at the start of the session. However, it closed out the session mixed and a net loser, apparently because of New Zealand Finance Minister Robertson’s comments about the Kiwi and the effects of the trade war on New Zealand’s economy.

German final HICP y/y: unchanged at 2.2% as expected
Euro Zone industrial production m/m: 1.0% vs. 0.4% expected, -0.7% previous
Euro Zone industrial production y/y: 0.9% vs. -0.2% expected, 0.3% previous

Major Events/Reports:

NZ’s Robertson speaks

New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson was interviewed by Bloomberg earlier.

Robertson was asked about the ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. and he said that:

Robertson was then asked about the Kiwi’s recent depreciation, and he had these to say:

Draghi speaks

ECB Overlord Draghi gave a speech earlier during the session. And he didn’t seem to say anything new at first glance since he presented a generally positive overview of and outlook on the Euro Zone economy.

However, the Draghster had this to say about inflation (emphasis mine):

And if y’all can still recall, Draghi had this to say during a September 24 speech:

Other market analysts apparently picked up on that tweak in language and the euro began to encounter sellers.

Some Brexit-related updates

This tweet began to make the rounds earlier during the session, which caused the pound to plunge as Brexit-related jitters flared up.

Theresa May’s spokesman declined to comment on the validity of that tweet. And there was this follow-up tweet later on, which caused the pound’s slide to abruptly stop on most pairs.

Unfortunately for GBP bulls, a spokeswoman for Theresa May later had this to say:

Some risk-taking to end the week

After being plagued by risk aversion for most of the week, the major European equity indices encountered buyers during today’s morning London session.

And according to market analysts, the risk-friendly vibes in Europe were due to bargain buying after this week’s sell-off, although China’s trade data from earlier was also cited as another reason for the the improved risk sentiment in Europe.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.37% to 1,418.83
Germany’s DAX was up by 0.52% to 11,598.26
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.20% to 3,216.65

Major Market Mover(s):

AUD

The Aussie claimed the top spot during the morning London session, thanks to the risk-friendly vibes and rising gold prices. Short-covering is also a possibility since the Aussie is one of the big losers this week.

AUD/USD was up by 11 pips (+0.15%) to 0.7127, AUD/NZD was up by 16 pips (+0.15%) to 1.0942, AUD/CHF was up by 18 pips (+0.25%) to 0.7062

GBP

The pound found itself at the very bottom of the forex head during the session, thanks to that Guido Fawkes tweet and the statement from Theresa May’s spokeswoman, which reignited Brexit-related concerns.

GBP/USD was down by 31 pips (-0.24%) to 1.3208, GBP/JPY was down by 57 pips (-0.38%) to 148.32, GBP/AUD was down by 75 pips (-0.40%) to 1.8531

EUR

The euro was the second biggest loser of the session. The euro actually began encountering sellers at around 5 am GMT, which is before the morning London session even rolled around. There were no apparent catalysts for that, though.

But during the session itself, Draghi’s speech was apparently the culprit for the euro’s slide.

EUR/USD was down by 14 pips (-0.12%) to 1.1577, EUR/JPY was down by 34 pips (-0.26%) to 130.01, EUR/AUD was down by 45 pips (-0.28%) to 1.6244

CHF

The Swissy finished the session in third-to-last place , likely because of the risk-friendly vibes, although SNB meddling is always a possible reason as well.

USD/CHF was up by 10 pips (+0.10%) to 0.9910, NZD/CHF was up by 8 pips (+0.12%) to 0.6455, CAD/CHF was up by 10 pips (+0.13%) to 0.7619

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: U.S. import prices (0.3% expected vs. -0.6% previous)
1:30 pm GMT: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak
2:00 pm GMT: University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (100.8 expected vs. 100.1 previous)
4:30 pm GMT: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak

This post first appeared here:

sungirl · October 15, 2018, 7:39am

wow
very great

PipDiddy · October 15, 2018, 2:42pm

London Session Recap: CHF Soars In Risk-Off Session, USD Broadly Lower, GBP Recovers

The risk-off vibes persisted into the morning London session. And this time, it was the Swissy that was apparently the safe-haven of choice since the Swissy easily dominated its peers.

The Greenback, meanwhile, was weaker across the board, probably because U.S. bond yields took a step back, although it’s also possible that falling U.S. equity futures may have also been making market players jittery.

The Aussie, the Kiwi, the euro, and the pound were likely taking advantage of the Greenback’s weakness. And this is more apparent for the Aussie and Kiwi since risk aversion was the dominant sentiment in Europe. But then again, commodities were broadly higher during the session, which may have lent support to the two comdolls.

However, the spotlight falls on the pound since the pound finished the session in second place after gapping lower across the board at the start of the week.

The yen is also worth noting since it was the second weakest currency of the session, despite falling U.S. bond yields and the risk-off vibes. U.S, bond yields did begin to turn higher near the end of the session, but the yen was already showing weakness before that.

Swiss PPI m/m: -0.2% vs. 0.3% expected, 0.0% previous
Swiss PPI y/y: 2.6% vs. 3.1% expected, 3.4% previous
U.S. retail sales report coming up
British PM Theresa May will speak later
Italian Cabinet meeting on the budget later
New Zealand’s CPI report also later

Major Events/Reports:

Abe and Suga speak

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe spoke during an extraordinary cabinet meeting earlier and he confirmed that plans to raise the consumption tax from 8% to 10% will take effect on October 2019 as scheduled.

Abe explained that the additional revenues from the tax hike will be used mainly for social security expenditures.

However, Abe also tried to calm the market by saying that:

In a presser after Abe spoke, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said that Abe instructed him to ease the negative impact of the planned tax hike since the tax hike from 5% to 8% way back in 2014 triggered a “reactionary fall” in demand that “lasted for a long time.”

British PM will speak later

I’ll just leave this here…

Commodities broadly higher

Most commodities were in rally mode during the morning London session.

And we can probably thank the Greenback’s overall weakness for that since a weaker U.S. dollar means that globally-traded commodities (priced in USD) become relatively cheaper, especially for market players who hold non-USD currencies.

And for reference, the U.S. dollar index was down by 0.27% to 94.68 for the day by the end of the session. It was in the green earlier.

Aside from Greenback weakness, market analysts also say that oil prices were rising because of political tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia after Trump threatened “severe punishment” if Saudi Arabia had anything to do with the disappearance of a Saudi journalist.

Most base metals were in the green, but their gains were capped, probably because of concerns surrounding China’s growth prospects.

Copper was up by 0.27% to $2.808 per pound
Tin was up by 0.18% to $19,152.50 per dry metric ton

Precious metals were in high demand, very likely because of the risk-off vibes. After all, precious metals are considered as traditional safe-havens.

Gold was up by 1.02% to $1,234.50 per troy ounce
Silver was up by 0.99% to $14.780 per troy ounce

Oil benchmarks were also well in the green.

U.S. WTI crude oil is up by 0.62% to $71.78
Brent crude oil is up by 1.02% to $81.25

Some risk aversion to start the week

Europe is starting the new week with a bout of risk aversion since most of the major European equity indices were in the red.

And market analysts blamed the risk-off vibes on the elevated levels of U.S. bond yields, concerns surrounding China’s growth prospects, jitters over Italy’s budget, and Brexit-related fears.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.21% to 1,407.13
Germany’s DAX was still up by 0.18% to 11,545.67 but off the day’s high at 11,587.24
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.03% to 3,193.65

U.S. equity futures were also down in the dumps.

S&P 500 futures were down by 0.47% to 2,755.50
Nasdaq futures were down by 0.78% to 7,116.00

U.S. bonds fall

U.S. bond yields were broadly in retreat during the morning London session, probably because of safe-haven demand for U.S. bonds.

U.S. 30-year bond yield down by 0.02% to 3.340%
U.S. 10-year bond yield down by 0.19% to 3.163%
U.S. 5-year bond yield down by 0.40% to 3.015%
U.S. 2-year bond yield down by 0.07% to 2.859%

Major Market Mover(s):

CHF

The Swiss was the top-performing currency of the morning London session and is also currently the best-performing currency of the day (so far).

Demand for the Swissy was likely due to the risk-off vibes in Europe, although it’s also possible that market players were switching over from the yen to the Swissy since the yen began to weaken after Abe’s speech.

USD/CHF was down by 33 pips (-0.34%) to 0.9869, EUR/CHF was down by 18 pips (-0.16%) to 1.1429, CAD/CHF was down by 24 pips (-0.32%) to 0.7578

GBP

The pound staged a broad-based recovery and was the second top-performing currency after the Swissy.

There weren’t any apparent positive catalysts for the pound’s recovery, but it’s possible that traders were just covering their shorts ahead of British PM Theresa May’s statement later.

Another probable reason is that market players are just trying to close the gaps from earlier.

GBP/USD was up by 47 pips (+0.36%) to 1.3162, GBP/JPY was up by 53 pips (+0.37%) to 147.25, GBP/CAD was up by 64 pips (+0.37%) to 1.7140

USD

The Greenback weakened across the board during the morning London session, probably because U.S. bond yields took a step back, although it’s also possible that falling U.S. equity futures may have also been making market players jittery since market analysts have been partially blaming the slide in U.S. equities as the reason for the Greenback’s weakness last week.

EUR/USD was up by 16 pips (+0.14%) to 1.1580, AUD/USD was up by 14 pips (+0.19%) to 0.7133, NZD/USD was up by 18 pips (+0.27%) to 0.6531

JPY

The yen was the second worst-performing currency of the session, even though risk-aversion prevailed and U.S. bond yields retreated.

The yen actually showed strength at first but began to lose steam after Japanese PM Abe’s speech, so Abe appears to be the culprit for the yen’s poor performance during the session.

USD/JPY was down by 2 pips (-0.02%) to 111.84, CHF/JPY was up by 35 pips (+0.31%) to 113.35, EUR/JPY was up by 19 pips (+0.14%) to 129.55

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: Headline (0.6% expected vs. 0.1% previous) and core (0.5% expected vs. 0.3% previous) readings for U.S. retail sales
12:30 pm GMT: Empire State manufacturing index (20.0 expected vs. 19.0 previous)
2:00 pm GMT: U.S. business inventories (0.5% expected vs. 0.6% previous)
2:30 pm GMT: BOC Business outlook survey
3:00 pm GMT: Italian Cabinet meeting on the budget
9:45 pm GMT: New Zealand’s quarterly CPI (0.7% expected vs. 0.4% previous)

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PipDiddy · October 16, 2018, 1:58pm

London Session Recap: GBP Broadly Higher, EUR Dips Then Recovers, USD Under Pressure

The pound caught a bid from the get-go and then attracted even more buyers after the U.K.’s jobs report painted a positive picture for wage growth.

The euro, meanwhile, was slapped lower at the start of the session, thanks to Italian PM Conte’s speech. However, buying pressure returned later, likely because of the Greenback’s weakness.

The euro wasn’t the second top-performing currency of the session, however, since that honor goes to the Kiwi, very likely because of the risk-friendly vibes and the Greenback’s weakness, although optimism because of New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected CPI reading may still be feeding demand for the Kiwi.

Speaking of the Greenback, the buck was the worst-performing currency of the session, probably because U.S. bond yields came off their highs during the session.

German import prices (m/m): 0.0% as expected vs. -0.2% previous
U.K. jobless rate: steady at 4.0% as expected
U.K. average earning (3m y/y): 2.7% vs. 2.6% expected, same as previous
Claimant count change in the U.K.: 18.5K vs. 4.5K expected, 14.2K previous
Euro Zone trade balance: €16.6B vs. €14.7B expected, €12.6B previous
Euro Zone ZEW economic sentiment: -19.4 vs. -9.1 expected, -7.2 previous
German ZEW economic sentiment: -24.7 vs. -12.0 expected, -10.6 previous

Major Events/Reports:

U.K. jobs report

The U.K.’s latest jobs report was released earlier during the session. And it revealed that the jobless rate in the three months to August held steady at 4.0% as expected. This is the shared best reading “since December 1974 to February 1975.”

Sadly, the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits rose by 18.5K in September, which is more than the +4.5K consensus.

As for wage growth, average weekly earnings only grew by 2.9% year-on-year in August, which is slower compared to the 3.3% increase recorded back in July.

However, the three-month average still comes in at 2.7%, beating expectations for a 2.6% increase.

Also, the slowdown was due mainly to bonuses falling by 1.3% year-on-year (+2.8% previous). If only regular earnings are considered, then wages grew by 3.1%, which is only a tick slower compared to the previous +3.2%, and also happens to be the second highest reading since July 2015.

Even better, real wage growth (inflation is taken into account) increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August (+0.9% previous), so wage growth is beating inflation and has been doing so in 8 of the last 9 months. Also, the three-month average for real wage growth comes in at +0.4%, which is the best reading since January 2017.

Risk-friendly vibes in Europe

Risk-taking was the name of the game in Europe since the major European equity indices were broadly in the green.

And according to market analysts, the risk-friendly vibes in Europe were due to expectations that earnings season will yield very good results.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.50% to 1,419.92
Germany’s DAX was up by 0.40% to 11,659.67
The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.34% to 3,222.65

U.S. bonds yields ease

U.S. bond yields climbed higher during the earlier session. They then hit fresh intraday highs when the morning London session rolled around. However, U.S. bond yields steadily tumbled lower after that and closed out the session in the red. They’re still broadly in the green for the day, though.

U.S. 30-year bond yield down by 0.09% to 3.348% after reaching an intraday high of 3.358%
U.S. 10-year bond yield down by 0.10% to 3.170% after reaching an intraday high of 3.180%
U.S. 5-year bond yield down by 0.01% to 3.029% after reaching an intraday high of 3.036%
U.S. 2-year bond yield down by 0.15% to 2.868% after reaching an intraday high of 2.878%

Major Market Mover(s):

GBP

The pound was one currency to rule them all during the session and is also currently the top-performing of the day.

The pound’s rise was partially due to the U.K. positive jobs report, but the pound was already moving higher before the jobs report was even released. And according to market analysts, that was due to short-covering and/or preemptive positioning ahead of the E.U. Summit.

Speaking of the E.U. Summit, you may wanna read up on Forex Gump’s What to Expect from the EU Summit This Week.

GBP/USD was up by 61 pips (+0.47%) to 1.3226, GBP/CHF was up by 46 pips (+0.37%) to 1.3059, GBP/JPY was up by 60 pips (+0.41%) to 148.19

NZD

A weaker U.S. dollar and the risk-friendly vibes allowed the Kiwi to extend its gains and claim the second top spot of the morning London session.

NZD/USD was up by 18 pips (+0.28%) to 0.6582, NZD/CHF was up by 12 pips (+0.18%) to 0.6499, NZD/JPY was up by 17 pips (+0.23%) to 73.74

USD

The Greenback was down in the dumps during the morning London session, probably because U.S. bond yields came of their highs.

USD/JPY was down by 7 pips (-0.06%) to 112.03, USD/CHF was down by 10 pips (-0.10%) to 0.9874, USD/CAD was down by 34 pips (-0.26%) to 1.2957

Watch Out For:

12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s foreign security purchases ($10.05B expected vs. $12.65B previous)
1:15 pm GMT: BOE MPC Member Jon Cunliffe will testify before the Treasury Committee
1:15 pm GMT: U.S. industrial production (0.2% expected vs. 0.4% previous) and capacity utilization rate (78.2% expected vs. 78.1% previous)
2:00 pm GMT: U.S. JOLTS job openings (6.90M expected vs. 6.94M previous)
2:00 pm GMT: NAHB U.S. housing market index (68 expected vs. 67 previous)
8:15 pm GMT: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak
9:20 pm GMT: RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle will speak
Dairy auction currently underway (-1.9% previous); auction usually ends at around 2:00 pm GMT

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