Ayup! Time to hit the pub. Have a good one folks.
well done!
Nice to know that some of us (=you + Eddie, etc.) are doing well!!! :))
Have a pleasant weekend, everyone
you got a great thread here Eddie,
i check in from time to time to see whats going on on the forex side of trades. Usually i dont trade forex, started few years ago made it a few days and stopped and never returned. I see why you went short on EUR/USD and agree to your trade. I only think it was a bit too early as i think the pair badly wants to hit 1,15 before turning around again with a big u-turn.
As i said, i usually never trade forex, but due to other circumstances on the DAX and the DOW Jones and Gold/Oil i have to keep track of the EUR/USD pair and how it is developing - at least from time to time.
Waching it once a week i found a spot where im really tempted and contemplating to make one single trade in forex which will last days/weeks/maybe months.
Im pretty sure that EUR/USD wil hit 1.15 within the next week and then reverse towards 1,05 again. its a channel developed since nearly a year now. Im considering taking that one trade once and then skip forex again for quite some time.
Contemplating about it i recalled some fundamental facts which support my idea.
QE programm of EU expanded
Interest rates lowered
Helicopter money (probably) wil be introduced
Negative interest rates for bank deposits in central bank expanded/widened
etc. etc.
On top of all i found a quite strong resistance at the price of 1.15
Tell me what you think of that, pipmehappy and toekan aswell, you guys trade forex constantly, i dont.
this is the situation os last friday. engoulfed (where you went short), hitted the Pivot Yearly Point and turned around towards up again. to me it feels like ti badly wants to go hit the 1,15 after it passed the first āmore or lessā important pivot point of the year last thursday.
I donāt tend to get to tied up in in depth data these daysā¦just trade what I see on my strengthmeter charts on a short term basisā¦
For me the gpb and yen are always pretty standout currencies with real sting in the tail and ferocious turns of speedā¦no others in g8 come closeā¦sure cad and nzd have a little panache at times with the chf , aud,usd and aud sleeping in the parlour ā¦but the gpb and the yen get my vote every time
Excluding news items naturallyā¦then even the euro wakes up if the end prod it with a sick ā¦!!
Thoughts anyone ?:5:
N
Good morning all.
As mentioned earlier, im wary of Gbp pairs at the moment, so here are a couple of other trades ive entered instead.
NzdUsd short 0.69000
UsdJpy long 111.375
Medium to long term, the Fed must raise rates sooner or later, even of only 0.10, Japan openly in favour of a weaker Yen, Kiwi is overbought.
Lets see what happens
Dollar Falls Against Yen as Investors Adjust to Fedās Caution
4 April 2016, 18:07
By Chelsey Dulaney
The dollar fell against the yen Monday, as investors continue to adjust to the Federal Reserveās cautious plans for raising interest rates.
The dollar fell 0.3% to Yen111.38. Meanwhile, the WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the buck against a basket of 16 currencies, ticked up 0.1% to 86.60 as the dollar strengthened against peers including the Australian and Canadian dollars.
The dollar has fallen broadly this year as the Federal Reserve has pared back its plans for raising interest rates, citing heightened risks from abroad. That helped drive the dollar to its worst quarterly performance since 2010 in the first three months of the year. The dollarās weakness comes even as data has shown improvements to the labor market and consumer spending.
The WSJ Dollar Index closed at its lowest level since June on Friday despite a stronger-than-expected March payrolls report from the Labor Department.
Many traders are being cautious due to the discrepancy between strong data and a dovish Fed, said Daniel Tenengauzer, a managing director at RBC Capital Markets.
[B]āEveryone is so puzzled by the Fed,ā he said. " People are just sitting on their hands, saying I canāt take a strong position because I donāt understand what theyāre saying." [/B]
Meanwhile, the dollar rose 0.3% against the Canadian dollar to C$1.3044. The Australian dollar fell 0.8% to $0.7613 after weak economic data.
Write to Chelsey Dulaney at <[email protected]>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 04, 2016 11:07 ET (15:07 GMT)
Copyright Ā© 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
HEARD ON THE STREET: THE PERILOUSLY STRONG YEN ā MARKET TALK
6 April 2016, 12:24
0924 GMT [Dow Jones] The yen is looking perilously strong, which isnāt just bad news for Japanās exporters. It also puts pressure on government finances. When the yen was weakening over the past few years, it fed through to government coffers through various streams. Record profits for Japanese exporters, underpinned by the weak yen, translated into increased corporate tax revenue. The massive rally in the stock market, also thanks to a weak yen, goosed government revenue from taxes on equity sales and dividends. Another source came from interest income government linked entities earned on overseas assets, where principal and interest payments rose in yen terms, despite low rates globally. A strong yen threatens to reverse that. The yen was actually 3% stronger on average last quarter than a year earlier, which will hasten corporate profits falling off their peaks. ([email protected])
Editor JSM
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Hi Eddie,
thanks, great article, and certainly thought provokingā¦
I do not believe that the BoJ can do much more, and indeed Kuroda just this week said that he
sees 2017 as the limit to QE provision from the BoJ, and certainly the marketās reaction to his
negative rate announcement earlier this year countered the efficacy of the BoJās efforts in the
ācurrency warā move to win the battle for cheapest currency.
Here is what John Kicklighter said on the topic of retail tradersā positioning on USD/JPY, in his video
today, from 21ā50āā onward, which I think is reason enough to go SHORT this currency pair, not long:
BOJ can easily deliver some short term pain but having seen this first hand in the past it doesnāt tend to last long if the fundamental flows are going against them like now. So long as the falls arenāt too sharp theyāre more likely to keep their powder dry and stick to the jawboning and picking up the telephone to inquire about rates from time to time. Though this jawboning isnāt being helped by various ex-BOJ members saying that thereās not much the BOJ can do.
Frothy markets today though - fun times. Been in and out of GBP/JPY a few times today.
YEN HITS FRESH 18-MONTH HIGH AGAINST DOLLAR
7 April 2016, 09:09
By Hiroyuki Kachi
The yen was sharply higher against its rival currencies during Asian trade Thursday, with the greenback touching a fresh, nearly 18-month low against the Japanese currency, as investors continued to be confident that Tokyo will not intervene in the market.
The U.S. currency tumbled to Y108.83 around 0530 GMT, its lowest since Oct. 30 2014, a day before the Bank of Japan aggressively expanded an already massive stimulus program. That is much lower than Y109.79 late Wednesday in New York.
The recent weakness reflects market participantsā lack of faith in the BOJās negative interest-rate policy and a belief that the Federal Reserve will stand pat for some time to come, a combination that has caused the yen to go against its usual market role as a safe haven.
Since the BOJ fired a so-called monetary bazooka to vault Japan out of more than a decade of deflation, Tokyo stocks gained and the yen weakened, key developments for Prime Minister Shinzo Abeās āAbenomicsā growth program.
āWe are seeing a tide turning to dollar selling and yen buying,ā said Takuya Kanda, senior researcher at Gaitame.Com Research Institute. āWhat we are seeing is the move that ignores fundamentals.ā
Earlier in the morning, a finance minister official reportedly said Tokyo will take steps if necessary to stem the yenās strength, pushing up the dollar to as high as Y109.90. But the impact of that jawboning was shortlived.
Mr. Abe said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, when asked about recent strength in the yen, āwe must definitely avoid competitive devaluation, and I think we should refrain from arbitrary intervention in currency markets.ā
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said Thursday the BOJ will āundertake additional monetary easing measuresā either through enlarging its asset purchases or lowering a minus deposit rate, or both, to achieve its 2% inflation target if necessary.
āAt least in the world of the currency trade, I think disappointment and distrust continue to spread,ā said SMBC chief economist Yoshimasa Maruyama.
Mr. Kanda said investors donāt see fresh trading cues that can turn around the yenās direction. On the dollarās side, investors are closely watching Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellenās comments at an event featuring former Fed chairmen.
The yen also strengthened against the euro. The common currency fell to Y124.29 from Y125.16 latest Wednesday, while the U.K. pound dropped to Y153.87 from Y155.50.
The Australian dollar dropped to Y83.06 from Y83.40.
In other currency-pair trading, the euro was at $1.1418 from $1.1399.
The WSJ Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.28% at 86.21.
Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates At 00:50 EST / 0450 GMT
Latest Previous %Chg Daily Daily %Chg
Dollar Rates Close High Low 12/31
USD/JPY Japan 109.06-07 109.79-80 -0.66 109.91 109.07 -9.33
EUR/USD Euro 1.1406-09 1.1397-400 +0.08 1.1416 1.1393 +5.04
GBP/USD U.K. 1.4117-19 1.4123-25 -0.04 1.4144 1.4107 -4.19
USD/CHF Switzerland 0.9547-51 0.9555-59 -0.08 0.9570 0.9549 -4.70
USD/CAD Canada 1.3070-75 1.3087-92 -0.13 1.3102 1.3067 -5.54
AUD/USD Australia 0.7602-06 0.7596-600 +0.08 0.7630 0.7587 +4.35
NZD/USD New Zealand 0.6822-28 0.6821-27 +0.01 0.6839 0.6805 -0.12
Euro Rate
EUR/JPY Japan 124.39-43 125.12-16 -0.58 125.31 124.38 -4.88
Source: Tullett Prebon
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
GbpNzd has stalled again st 2.06, the third time its done that recently. Will be more than interested to see if it holds and reverses or if it breaks thru and falls further
Me tooā¦ I have just now marked the next levels down on my chart: 2.05, 2.04ā¦ Sigh
Thanks, Eddie.
It has the appearance of a further drop coming up with the first time yielding a 900 pip bounce and the second time a 400 pip bounce. But you never really know with these patterns I guess. I think you mentioned before that thereās no very compelling reason to buy GBP though right now and Iād agree with that so on that basis alone I would guess that 2.06 will go relatively soon.
I donāt trade these type of breaks though - prefer to get in higher in line with the trend rather than look for a break near a range low. Missed my entry during the last run higher so just watching this play out for now.
Well, Tektolnes, yes, Pound sentiment is still negative (as per the last COT report) in futures, so
we can use that to gauge how the Pound will moveā¦
Also, as I explained before, the UK 10-Year Gilts are at an historic supply zone and they have
an almost mirror-like (=negative) correlation to the GBP/USD, which is particularly visible on this
monthly chart that I created, showing the Gilts in red and Cable in purple:
Notice also that the negative correlation is stronger in the longer term, namely weekly, six-monthly,
and yearly, as also clear when pulling up Oandaās correlation heat map (where blue dots designate
a strong negative/inverse correlation) for 10Yr Gilts versus Cable:
Like always, picking tops and bottoms is a hazardous effort, especially if you back it with
real money; however, we all know that a lot of retail traders are long-Cable as they think
that it cannot go any lower (indeed, even a few professionals have taken that view), and
they may just be right: assuming that the inverse correlation with Gilts continued, then,
if these began to drop from that supply zone, then we should see the Pound finding motivation
to rise (say, in the event of a no-Brexit vote in June, or just due to capital flow between
government gilts and other Pound-based assets (why the inverse correlation should be so
is not particularly known to me))ā¦
It is worth concluding that these are big-picture themes, so it could take months or even longer
to see them unfold, but it does help shaping our view in the medium-term, in case we felt that
we were in the dark, and our perception of Cable was a little foggy at present (especially if
relating the Pound to its counterpart, the US Dollar, which has been mired in historically high
levels without the marketsā support for two more Fed rate hikes this year).
Bonne chance!
Happy Trading.
I see its bounced back 150 pips, will watch it eagerly to see if this continues or not
AudUsd short at 0.7500
Donāt Be Surprised to See Near-Term Yen Collapse ā Market Talk
8 April 2016, 13:33
1033 GMT [Dow Jones] The recent yen rally may soon come to an end, with many short-term speculators seen closing out their positions ahead of data-heavy week, says Daiwa chief FX strategist Mitsuo Imaizumi. These investors had been driving the yen higher against the dollar in recent trade, with their technically driven trades unencumbered by the release of any serious economic data last week. Technical charts suggest the USD/JPY (now at 108.74) still has enough downside momentum to hit 105. However, fundamental factors may soon get the upper hand, with a slew of data due next week including figures on U.S. retail sales on the coming Wednesday. This is driving out the hedge funds, leaving the door open to a weaker yen. āIt would not be a surprise to see the dollar bounce back to 110 yen later today [Friday],ā says Imaizumi. ([email protected])
Editor JSM
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 08, 2016 06:33 ET (10:33 GMT)
Copyright Ā© 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.