Another couple of trades hit stop while I was out, thats 23 consecutive winning trades this month, no losing trades, and 25% account growth. Ive got 5 trades running, all in profit and 3 of those secured by SL
Those three ducks are very loyal to you 
Well done!
Especially for you buddy
I nearly made that one my new (post-4000-posts) avatar but
then opted for the âEnlightened Buddhaâ oneâŠ
New Zealand Dollar Edges Higher Against the Greenback
20 May 2016, 07:15
By Kate Geenty
WELLINGTONâThe New Zealand dollar recovered from two-month lows against the U.S. dollar in local trading Friday.
The kiwi hit a low of US$0.6711 in offshore trading Thursday after the U.S. dollar firmed following remarks by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley that âJune is definitely a live meetingâ when it comes to possible U.S. rate rise.
The New Zealand dollar pulled back from this low during the local session and by 0400 GMT Friday was trading at US$0.6762 compared with US$0.6739 at the same time Thursday. Against the Australian dollar the kiwi was trading at A$0.9357 compared with A$0.9343 on Thursday.
While talk of an upcoming U.S. rate increase gains momentum, the possibility of a rate rise in New Zealand in June appears to be waning. ANZ currency strategists said the odds of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting the official cash rate in June have fallen steadily over the course of the week, with odds of around 32% priced into the market. âThis has, in our view, all occurred for good reasonâwith the activity side of the economy still in good shape, housing still going gangbusters, and core inflation appearing to be rising.â
ANZ said the New Zealand dollar is still elevated but, âthe harsh reality is that the New Zealand dollar hasnât really gone anywhere since the first OCR cut last June. So cutting in expectation that it will lower the New Zealand dollar hardly sounds like a good idea, especially with the U.S. dollar determining much of the New Zealand dollarâs overall direction.â
Deutsche Bankâs New Zealand chief economist Darren Gibbs thinks the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25% at its June meeting. âMoreover, in our view a cut at the August 11 meeting is only just greater than a 50/50 proposition (formally we will adopt the latter as our central forecast, but with no great conviction).â
-Write to Kate Geenty at <[email protected]>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 20, 2016 00:15 ET (04:15 GMT)
Copyright © 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
GbpNzd has 3 consecutive rising candles in H1, could be a good time to get back in for a long trade
Barring any unexpected surges it looks like Iâm finished for the week.
Gained 745 pips
Account up 17.5% for the week
16 consecutive winning trades, 0 losses, for the week.
Just in case anyone has forgotten why this thread is named, these are my current trades.
GbpNzd. ⊠down 60 pips
EurUsd. ⊠down 30 pips
Last trade of the week, long GbpNzd @ 2.1427
Enjoy your weekend everyone
Nice one!
You too, Eddie!!!
Been meaning to ask you, PipMeHappy, are you trading any other pairs other than GbpNzd?
Hello fellow weekender, how is your day?
In answer to your question:
new zealand dollar 1
We access the outlook for the GBP to NZD exchange rate in the coming week
After being in a strong short-term up-trend, the pound could pause to consolidate versus the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) in the week ahead.
It has pulled-back sharply after reaching a peak of 2.1778 on Thursday May 19, falling back down to end the week at 2.1416.
Nevertheless, the break above the key 2.1493 level was a very bullish medium-term sign and increased the chances that a new up-trend was in the process of forming.
Therefore, the current correction is probably just a short-term phenomenon and the young up-trend is likely to resume once it is over.
It is possible it may move back as far as support from the basing patternâs ânecklineâ at 2.1300, before reversing and going higher again.
There could be an inverse head and shoulders (H&S) bottoming pattern at the lows, which is another strong bullish reversal sign.
From a technical perspective we see more gains on the horizon once the correction has finished, with a break above the current 1.1778 highs, confirming more upside to a fresh target at 2.1886, at the R2 monthly pivot.
Budget Dominates Coming Days
On May 26 the 2016/17 budget for New Zealand takes place.
Data available to date suggest that the budget is more or less balanced for 2015-16 and hence we see little alteration to the forward estimates, and therefore the bond issuance program of $NZ9b pa.
Growth is solid, while a low inflation environment limits upside to revenue growth. Net debt peaked at just over 26% of GDP.
NZD Themes to Watch
The kiwi is likely to hold firm due to lessening expectations of another interest rate cut by the Reserve bank of new Zealand, after Dairy prices rose by 2.6% at the Global Dairy Auction on Tuesday.
The New Zealand Dollar is still in demand due to its advantage over other G10 economies, over which it has the interest rates, at 2.25% - much higher than the UKâs 0.50% or the Eurozoneâs 0.00%.
These high interest rates attract a lot of foreign investors who park their money in New Zealand to gain from the higher interest rates, this increases demand for the kiwi.
The economy is reasonably strong except for the large dairy sector which has seen its revenue collapse due to plummeting global dairy prices. RBNZ governor Wheeler went so far as to mention this in a recent speech. However prices have stabilized over the last month with the last Global Dairy Auction registering a 2.6% rise in prices.
Traditionally, low dairy prices have prompted the RBNZ to devalue the kiwi via the vehicle of reducing interest rates, however, that risk is lower now.
A risk factor is the growing housing bubble, which is a disincentive for the RBNZ to reduce interest rates, as that would make borrowing cheaper and increase the bubble. Auckland now is one of the most expensive places in the world to live using a comparison of house prices to income.
Some analysts have suggested this means the RBNZ will not lower rates in the current cycle because of the housing boom.
The pair, therefore may pause or go sideways in the short-term as sterling finishes its Brexit-loss recouping upswing, now that it has regained a substantial amount of ground.
According to the BOE, who estimate Brexit losses to have amounted to about 5% of the fall in sterling in the last 6-months, that loss has now almost completely been reabsorbed at the current 1.46 level.
Other estimates which place the premium higher, such as UniCreditâs 8% of Sterlingâs losses, which would require a move back up to 1.49 to recover, indicate more upside may still be in the pipeline - indeed itâs hard to believe that at current levels everything has been reabsorbed before the referendum has even taken place!
What does seem possible is that the âlow hanging fruitâ of Brexit losses may now have been picked and the remainder of the risk premium may be harder to reach. Still CFTC data from US Futures Exchanges is still showing a predominance of short Sterling positions still remaining after they reached a record high at the height of the Brexit bear market, which could still fuel a short-covering rally higher.
Now that concerns about Brexit have calmed down with the âRemainâ campaign comfortably in the lead, attentions are being turned to more quotidian concerns of when the UK central bank will decide to raise rates (or indeed possible cut them).
In this sense the UK is in a similar position to the US where attentions are being concentrated anew, on data, so as to gauge growth; likewise, in the UK something similar has been starting to happen.
Much was made of Thursdayâs stellar Retail Sales release as it helped dispel fears the UK economy was weakening.
April Manufacturing PMI actually came out in contraction mode for the first time in years, and Q1 growth was lower than the eurozone, therefore analysts will be awaiting UK Q1 GDP second estimates on Thursday with much anticipation.
It is not expected to be revised from the current 0.4%, but if it is, either up or down, this will probably impact rate hike expectations and therefore the pound.
Data Hotspots
The New Zealand Trade Balance on Tuesday is expected to show the deficit widen to -3.94bn yoy from -3.38bn previously. Anything worse is likely to be kiwi-negative, as it will put pressure on the RBNZ to consider cutting interest rates to devalue the kiwi, to help exporters.
For the pound, the main data release will be GDP second estimates on Thursday, which are expected to remain at 0.4% in line with expectations.
âŠhave a good trading.week!!
Entered a fifth trade: short NZD/JPY.
Target: anything below 70.00.
Reason: hedging a slower GBP/NZD pickup
post-Brexit, in case NZD does better to the
short side against currencies other than GBP.
Looks like its nearing the top if a downward trending channel, good luck, could be a nice move
Nzd hasnât started the day ad I would have liked, but at least the Aussie is behaving
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR SELLING LIKELY TO REIGNITE
23 May 2016, 07:23
By James Glynn
SYDNEYâThe Australian dollar was slightly firmer in Asia Monday in a session that saw consolidation for the currency ahead of a week that could see selling begin again.
At 0410 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$0.7256, compared with US$0.7229 at the same time Friday.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will speak Tuesday in what will be his first public comments since a surprise interest rate cut on May 3.
Traders said any comments by Stevens on inflation will be crucial as investors are still struggling to fully assess the RBAâs policy stance.
Last week, RBA board meeting minutes showed some of the interest-rate setting members needed to be persuaded to cut interest rates.
RBA board member John Edwards told The Wall Street Journal on Friday that the economy continues to have âpepâ, indicating he may have been one of those resistant to a cut. He also said there is no urgent need to restore inflation to within the desired 2-3% inflation target. Currently, inflation is forecast to be below the band for some time.
Recent inflation data implies the RBA will need to lower interest rates sharply from the current record low of 1.75%, according to some economists. Some are forecasting a cash rate of 1.0% a year from now.
Despite small gains Monday by the Aussie, much of the discussion in the market remains around the potential for further selling as bets increase that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lift rates in June.
âThe markets continue to churn on the heightened prospect of a U.S. interest rate hike,â said Stephen Innes, senior trader at OANDA Australia.
âWith commodity prices likely to fall on the back of slower growth in China, the path of least resistance for the Australian dollar remains lower,â he added.
First quarter investment data on Thursday will also be closely watched, partly because it is a key component of GDP growth data. Macquarie Bank said non-mining investment, which has been stubbornly weak, will be the main focus.
Technically, the Aussie is also weak. Traders said it recently broke down below its 200-day moving average (US$0.7260), which will make significant gains near-term very difficult.
National Australia Bank said in a strategy report that it acknowledges downside risks to its latest forecasts for the Aussie which see it ending 2016 at US$0.6900.
-Write to James Glynn at <[email protected]>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Before beginning this thread almost 9 months ago, I had been trading almost exclusively using the 3 Ducks System, a trading system that I found here on BabyPips and which I would wholeheartedly recommend to anyone looking for a simple, reliable, eaxy to set up system of trading.
While browsing the forums, i stumbled upon a thread âGbpNzd moving slowly today, why?â and was intrigued by the length of time 1 trader in particular was staying in trades for, and by the several hundred pip daily movement this pair seemed to enjoy.
I began trading this pair, holding for a few days or a week at a time and, thanks to some fortunate timing inasmuch as I had joined in the middle of a huge, multi-month, uptrend, I made several hundred pips quickly.
Another trader commented that those of us trading like this, holding even when hundreds of pips down, must have balls of steel, and that prompted me to begin a new thread where I could expand this style of trading without hijacking the original GbpNzd thread.
To be continuedâŠ
One of the main tools I use to help select suitable pairs to trade in this manner is a Volatility Calculator, specifically this one below which was posted on the thread by Yohec
Forex Volatility Calculator - Investing.com
Whilst I am happy to sit on a trade for days waiting for it to turn back in my favour, I want it to be worthwhile doing this so I want to ensure I am not trading pairs that barely move, I want to be well renumerated for my patience, and I take my hat off to PipMeHappyâs 10 month trade.
But what happens when it all goes wrong? Trading long term, often without a stop loss, really does need balls of steel, and sometimes you have to accept that the trend has ended and you may never get back into profit. This is hard. Youâve backed your judgement and it hasnât worked. At times like this it needs even bigger balls to accept this and to close a trade, you may be 1000âs of pips down, but if trading conditions have changed, fundamentals have changed, what else can you do? Accept it for what it is, and look for the next trade.
One problem I had with GbpNzd was that, when the trend ended and price started falling, I felt some stupid sense of loyalty for the pair and continued going long, falsely believing that price would turn although there was no logical reason to believe this. An expensive lesson, I lost most of my earlier profits and could have blown my account.
After this I made some adjustments to my trading to protect myself.
Firstly, I am more comfortable closing a trade with 150 to 300 pips profit, then wait for a retracement to reenter on.
Secondly, I try not to open new trades until my existing trades are in profit, ideally with a portion of this secured by stops.
Thirdly, if I have any concerns about likely affects of upcoming news events I close my trades. Iâd rather miss out on some profit than risk losing everything.
This style of trading isnât for everyone. I certainly wouldnât recommend this trading style for newbies, getting your head around sitting on a loss isnât easy, but I find its a million times less stressful than scalping, takes well under an hour a day of my time, and , currently at least, is proving to be very profitable for me.
So, good luck fellow traders in whatever way you trade. There is a style out there for each of us, we just need to find one and make it our own.
Wonderful post⊠You have touched on all the
points that make long-term trading what it is.
Applause!