Saying ‘I follow news to try to put myself inside the mind of those who think they work’ imply that news give you information. If you follow the market for a while, you will notice that the outcome from a news is completely random. Big money enter/exit at level where the cost of execution will be the lowest, that is where the order flow is and often this is around stop areas
[QUOTE=“Quanti;481764”]Saying ‘I follow news to try to put myself inside the mind of those who think they work’ imply that news give you information. If you follow the market for a while, you will notice that the outcome from a news is completely random. Big money enter/exit at level where the cost of execution will be the lowest, that is where the order flow is and often this is around stop areas[/QUOTE]
Yep! Market reaction to news is entirely random… No way to make a profit from it.
My favourite part is when analists are wrried about the numbers, thanks a lot, you have made me make money and crushed an entiere economy for saying so. I do much better when i get in before they say so but normally I am out much before when they speak out.
[QUOTE=“Mr Gone;481766”]
My favourite part is when analists are wrried about the numbers, thanks a lot, you have made me make money and crushed an entiere economy for saying so. I do much better when i get in before they say so but normally I am out much before when they speak out.[/QUOTE]
Oh yeh definitely… Never worry about economic numbers, doesn’t effect us trading at all.
By the wait, I think but not completely sure about it, tha is funny thing I never do; that Lagarde is wrong about UK economy, she might be right if GBP is overvaluated but still, for my analisys I think price might fall down to it’s intrinsic value if happens so it does not mean UK is doing poorly eventhought analists after it wanna make us belive so. But is just a guessing and if you are taking my clue just in case don’t forget to use SL. I am not one of those idiotic analist who will do everything to demonstrate they are right, me I normaly don’t speak out loud and if I guessed wrong I just cut my loses and walk away. Period. There is no risk free scheme.
[QUOTE=“Mr Gone;481770”]By the wait, I think but not completely sure about it, tha is funny thing I never do; that Lagarde is wrong about UK economy, she might be right if GBP is overvaluated but still, for my analisys I think price might fall down to it’s intrinsic value if happens so it does not mean UK is doing poorly eventhought analists after it wanna make us belive so. But is just a guessing and if you are taking my clue just in case don’t forget to use SL. I am not one of those idiotic analist who will do everything to demonstrate they are right, me I normaly don’t speak out loud and if I guessed wrong I just cut my loses and walk away. Period. There is no risk free scheme.[/QUOTE]
I don’t even worry about analyzing economies… That’s just fundamental analysis that never works.
Indeed. But, It moves some wires, some are worth to follow, some are as useful as a wet cigar.
[QUOTE=“Mr Gone;481773”]
Indeed. But, It moves some wires, some are worth to follow, some are as useful as a wet cigar.[/QUOTE]
But all are random aren’t they?
If I can maintain the regularity of the win ratio, I may be able to risk not more than 0.05% on each position to achieved the 10% monthly return with minimum drawdown. I find it always better to adjust your daily trades based on the real monthly expectation.
Detail on Myfxbook account: Error | Myfxbook
I came across Rob Booker’s Myfxaccount: Rob Booker System | Myfxbook
Those who can DO and those who can’t TEACH.
It is always good to check performance first and listen advice second. In trading, most people start from the second and never show the first. It is now easy to anyone to open a demo account and show live results.
An intelligent trader has to ask himself, “Do I want to trade in a market where the vast majority of people are thinking about what I’m thinking, and I’m thinking about what they’re thinking and what would happen if every trader used the same precise system to rate instruments??”
Well, it’s obvious, isn’t it? The whole mechanism of speculating on the market would dissolve, because every order [to a broker] needs, somewhere, its opposite.
From this you can deduce that misinformation and misdirection are keynotes to maintaining the whole mechanism of speculating on the market. It’s called ‘advice,’ but it’s really PR. It’s varieties of opposing PR, in which yes and no are declared about the very same item. Yes and no. Buy this. No, sell this. No, stand aside. Or, buy this because of X. No, buy this because of Y.
Confusion.
Churn the PR.
Flood the field with contradictory nonsense.
Float various strategies and advice, for speculating, that will fit what traders are able to discern, given their state of mind. You’ll end up making the market, because from this come both buyers and sellers of the same item.
This is what makes a market. This is all that makes a market.
As the field is dominated, more and more, by speculating institutions and groups, it becomes obvious that these institutions must be convinced to approach buying and selling in opposing ways, according to different outlooks and “philosophies.” So the PR reaches higher on the food chain. It targets these groups.
Being consistenly profitable under those conditions requires techniques. The only techniques that work at a high percentage are the ones that rely on asymmetric information flows, and the ability to act in the market with foreknowledge and the power of size. One needs to look at the market structure and W.H.O is buying and W.H.O is selling as best they can. Charts only tell part of the story. If charting systems really ‘worked’ the people who had them would be so rich you would never hear about them.
I agree, order flows and market structure are criteria which have to been master in order profitable. I don’t believe on the CONSTITENCY of chart patterns.
Hello.
For what it’s worth (my ever so humble opinion): EITHER you base your trading on FUNDAMENTALS ONLY OR you trade PURELY TECHNICALLY (and I advocate the latter as always). Trying to “integrate” the two is, once again in my ever so humble opinion, almost impossible. If nothing else: you’ll almost always find fundamentals conflicting with trade signals generated by a decent, tried and tested, technical trading system. So: obviously you’re going to “second guess” EITHER YOUR understanding of fundamentals OR YOUR technical trading system. What’s more: the longer I’m in this “game” the more I realize that very few people IF ANY actually understand fundamentals (or rather: very few people IF ANY know how to correctly INTERPRET fundamentals and make PROFITABLE trading decisions based on them). Do yourself a favor and watch Bloomberg TV for any given 24-hour period and you’ll see what I’m talking about (but for GOODNESS SAKE make SURE while doing this exercise that you have NO trades open and your PC is TURNED OFF!!! LOL!!!). All of these “professionals” (analysts???) usually start out their interview with the words “we believe …”!!! LOL!!! That does NOT sound very “exact” to me. What’s more: much like Newton’s law (I forget which one i.e. the one about “for every action there is an equal but opposite reaction” or something like that) for every analyst that “believes” ONE thing they’ll interview ANOTHER that “believes” the opposite!!! Compare this to a decent, tried and tested, technical trading system??? A swing point is a swing point. Support is support. Resistance is resistance. A trendline is a trendline. And so on and so forth!!!
And just to “stick the knife in deeper” (and I’ve noted this many times around here and everywhere else before): it never ceases to amaze me that most of these analysts who supposedly understand fundamentals will end their interview referring to some or the other technical indicator (usually RSI or ADX)!!! Go figure!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Indeed, nothing is better than simple experience
Yep. Sometimes such “experience” comes at a price but it’s worth it in the end (as long as you NEVER GIVE UP)!!! Hell: I’m still around!!! That “says it all”!!! LOL!!! As I said to somebody the other day (on a thread somewhere here I do believe): I’m certainly no “expert”. I’ve just learned what NOT to do. To mention but THREE things that I’ve learned NOT to do: NEVER listen to an analyst, NEVER have Bloomberg or CNBC in the same room as your (trading) PC, and NEVER trade with a broker other than D…!!! LOL!!! (Sorry: couldn’t resist the last “NEVER”)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
I still not figure out why still many retailers are using indicators. 95% of them are losing money but keep talking about MACD or RSI. I agree that an analyst making reference to an indicator is probably one of those analysts (Bloomberg, CNBC, …) but obviously not a successful trader.
For fundamentals, we just need to look at the euro and Europe. Europe is in total mess while the US are recovering slowly however the eur/usd is still trading at 1.30 and was trading 1.37 two months ago. This is an average price traded since 2004. Fundamentals are disconnected to the reality.The euro is considered overvaluated.
Any trader should understand that the market is random with action-reaction as dpaterso rightly said. For example, look at a graph of the P/L on any myfxbook and you will be able to see support/resistance, H&S, flag… but anyone knows that the distribution of wins and losses are completely random.
- the demo account I traded during the month of Nov 12
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/quanti-trading/397609
- the demo account I traded in Mars 2013
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/quanti-scalp/486510
- I just started to trade another account and you will see in a few week that pattern will appear
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/trading/550817
I’am sure you can see breakout, support, resistance. If I was applying a stochastic, you will also divergences, …
But the distribution of win/loss, like prices is random with peaks and troughs (action/reaction), this is the reason why only a very few are consistent
[QUOTE=“Quanti;482155”]I still not figure out why still many retailers are using indicators. 95% of them are losing money but keep talking about MACD or RSI. I agree that an analyst making reference to an indicator is probably one of those analysts (Bloomberg, CNBC, …) but obviously not a successful trader.
For fundamentals, we just need to look at the euro and Europe. Europe is in total mess while the US are recovering slowly however the eur/usd is still trading at 1.30 and was trading 1.37 two months ago. This is an average price traded since 2004. Fundamentals are disconnected to the reality.The euro is considered overvaluated.
Any trader should understand that the market is random with action-reaction as dpaterso rightly said. For example, look at a graph of the P/L on any myfxbook and you will be able to see support/resistance, H&S, flag… but anyone knows that the distribution of wins and losses are completely random.
- the demo account I traded during the month of Nov 12
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/quanti-trading/397609
- the demo account I traded in Mars 2013
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/quanti-scalp/486510
- I just started to trade another account and you will see in a few week that pattern will appear
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/trading/550817
I’am sure you can see breakout, support, resistance. If I was applying a stochastic, you will also divergences, …
But the distribution of win/loss, like prices is random with peaks and troughs (action/reaction), this is the reason why only a very few are consistent[/QUOTE]
None of your fxbook links work for me.
And why do you have so many instead of just using one?
Hello (and nice post).
Not sure I agree on this point though. Tell you why: it’s all about PROPER RISK / MONEY MANAGEMENT. That’s all. I’m the first to agree that most all indicators are lagging (well: in their “basic form” anyway e.g. many people don’t REALLY understand how to use RSI BELIEVE IT OR NOT and if used and UNDERSTOOD it CAN give valid signals WAY earlier than one would expect). I’ve mentioned this before too (either here or on my forums): an experiment was done where trades were taken at random (no “system” or fundamentals taken into account and no indicators). The overall result was profitable (nothing “spectacular” but profitable nevertheless). Why??? Two reasons: PROPER RISK / MONEY MANAGEMENT and the CORRECT PLACEMENT OF STOPS. There is one system that I trade that relies solely on RSI(14). The system is profitable but NOT because RSI is SOOO fantastic but ONLY because of the way that the trading system manages the trade and because of strict risk / money management. Alright: as everyone knows (around these parts) I’m the “Welles Wilder junkie” so I guess I’m rather biased when it comes to RSI!!! LOL!!!
As for the markets being random or not??? THIS debate will “rage” until such time as there ARE no more markets in existence!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
and those who can do, can’t teach.
I was logged in, this is why. It should work now
November 2012
Quanti Trading System | Myfxbook
Mars 2013
Quanti Scalp System | Myfxbook
Starting 2 days ago
I just trade demo only for 1 month and this is just to show that trading can be profitable. There is very few traders showing live results.
There will be no point to start a month with a demo account at +50%. The goal is to be consistent, so if I can do 50% one month I should be able to be profitable the next month. If not, this is not consistency.
This month I will try to reach 10% but with a very small drawdown. 3% or less if possible