:). I really appreciate the feedback. Thanks!
These two trades are funny to me and I have no idea why. I wasn’t going to post them since I basically broke even but decided to because I believe there is still educational value in them. They are two AUDUSD trades taken so I could build a decent position in anticipation of the 0.7560 level being broken so I could have multiple positions in profit. The first one was taken on a 15 minute chart (yay time frame diversity) and the second one several hours after on the 4 hour chart.
Trade #7 - AUDUSD Short +1.08 RR Profit
15M AUDUSD
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I saw this develop very late at night and I decided to take a shot at it. First off, if you look on the daily chart for AUDUSD, you will see that the pair is in a downtrend, so I was looking for areas to get short. Price established a S/R level at 0.768 level (blue line)–proving to be solid as price it held price back several times (yellow circles). After hovering above this S/R level and failing to create new highs, price broke back down through it. Knowing that it would likely come back to this level for a retest, I was looking for an opportunity to short on the retest. I observed a rejection candle (pin bar) form at this previous support-turned-resistance. Price also had the 20EMA just above it acting as additional resistance. This was my signal to enter. My exit was above the pin bar + a buffer. I placed a slight buffer for 2 reasons. One is because it is an intra-day trade and price may deviate slightly from the levels. Two is because price did not go all the way to that support just before breaking through it to the downside. Simply put – there was a possibility of a deeper pullback beyond the 0.768 level (blue), so that buffer was there in case. Luckily the buffer was a good call, price got very close to it after my entry before it sold off. I will explain my exit in the next trade.
Entry date: 3/15/2015
Pair: AUDUSD
Entry: Sell @ 0.7679 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 0.7694 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: No level was set in anticipation to break the yearly lows.
Exit: 0.7662 (Green dotted)
Pips: +16.3
Planned RR: NA
Actual RR: +1.08
Exit date: 3/16/2015
Trade #8 – AUDUSD Short -0.95 RR Loss
H4 AUDUSD
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Again, with the daily trend. After having some unrealized profits from the previous trade, I had spotted another opportunity to enter. Price had stopped selling off and began to form a pull back. The second bullish candle of this pullback turned out to have a long wick to the topside, indicating to me that price found sellers at the 20EMA and there is a possibility for price to continue to the downside. I took advantage of the opportunity and entered where price was currently at. My stop was set just above this candle. At this point in time, I moved my stop from trade #7 to the stop I used for this trade. In the scenario that I was stopped out, my first trade would yield +1 RR and my second would yield -1RR so I would essentially be break even. And 3 bars after I was stopped out.
What I would’ve done differently is not neutralizing my risk after entering in the second trade. I should have maintained a -1RR stop and that would have probably kept me in the trade. It was a little naive of me to set my risk to break even so early. In hindsight, the safer thing would have been to wait for a deeper pull back to the 0.768 level that I used in trade #7 as this was the closest resistance level from where price began to pull back. However, this trade gave me enough reason for me to enter. Once again, can’t be right all the time.
Entry date: 3/15/2015
Pair: AUDUSD
Entry: Sell @ 0.7647 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 0.7662 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: No level was set in anticipation to break the yearly lows.
Exit: 0.7662 (Red dotted)
Pips: -15.5
Planned RR: NA
Actual RR: -0.95
Exit date: 3/16/2015
Total RR: +0.1
Hello, good trading bro and wish you all the best hope you are in profit and may I know that how do you identify the daily trend by using the 20EMA? or by something else?
Thanks :). To you too.
Its mostly just by looking at the chart. I just look for if the pair is creating higher highs+higher lows or lower lows+lower highs to establish trend. Although the 20EMA could also be used to identify the trend.
I don’t like to over complicate it.
more and longer red candles = bearish trend
more and longer green candles = bullish trend
You could also use the 20EMA as a secondary method of identifying trend.
Price mostly above (supported by) the 20EMA = bullish
Price mostly below (resistance) the 20EMA = bearish
Trade #9 – EURJPY Short -1 RR Loss
EURJPY 4H
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Price had been in a steady, non-volatile downtrend and I had spotted an opportunity to short. Originally I was going to wait for price to reach 129.00 (blue line) before I entered short, but price had reacted to the 20 EMA with a decent bearish candle. Price had previously reacted to the 20 EMA with rejections and I thought it was establishing a lower high. I entered short toward the close of the bearish candle with my stop above the high. I was stopped out shortly after with a -1 RR loss.
Entry date: 3/17/2015
Pair: EURJPY
Entry: Sell @ 128.25 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 128.85 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 126.95
Exit: 128.85 (Red dotted)
Pips: -60
Planned RR: +2.16
Actual RR: -1
Exit date: 3/17/2015
Trade #10 – EURJPY Short -1 RR Loss
EURJPY 4H
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Nothing much has changed in this analysis from the last one. I was still under the impression that price was respecting the 20 EMA and would sell off eventually. I re-entered soon after being stopped out of the first trade is because in the scenario that price was actually rejecting off the 20 EMA, I had an excellent entry with a tight stop above the 129.00 resistance level (blue line). If price did reject the 20 EMA and I targeted the recent lows near 127, this trade could have given me about +6 RR. Trading is about probabilities–this trade was easily worth the -1 RR risk for the potential gain.
Entry date: 3/17/2015
Pair: EURJPY
Entry: Sell @ 128.75 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 129.11 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 126.95
Exit: 129.11 (Red dotted)
Pips: -36
Planned RR: +6.13
Actual RR: -1
Exit date: 3/17/2015
Trade #11 – EURJPY Short -1 RR Loss
EURJPY 4H
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Once again, another re-entry. Except this time price had gone all the way to the 129 resistance (blue line) and formed a pin bar rejection. I entered near the candle close with my stop above the candle. With my messed up sleep schedule, I told myself I would take a nap and set an alarm before the FOMC meeting so I could manage my trades. Little did I know my alarm volume was set to 0 on my phone. I was stopped out on the rally during the FOMC meeting. The lesson here is that you always want to be considerate of how market conditions may change during news–and make sure your alarm works. I would have actively closed my position for a smaller loss if I saw some bullish pressure during the news release.
Entry date: 3/17/2015
Pair: EURJPY
Entry: Sell @ 128.56 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 129.17 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 126.95
Exit: 129.17 (Red dotted)
Pips: -60
Planned RR: +2.6
Actual RR: -1
Exit date: 3/18/2015
Net RR: -3
GBPUSD H4
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GBP has been in a non-volatile trend, respecting the 20 EMA and role reversal levels. I saw that price briefly rejected the 1.4850 support level (upper blue line) then soon after broke through it with impulsive selling. Price then found buyers at the 1.4700 (lower blue line) and began a corrective move back to the level that was support but now was acting as resistance. Price then found selling pressure after a touch of the resistance and the 20 EMA–this was my signal to sell. I had entered with a manual market order with my stop just above the entry candle highs, above the 20 EMA and above the resistance level. I initially set my take profit level at 4.700 but I removed it soon after because I was expecting price to break the 1.4700 handle and continue to sell off but the FOMC announcement dictated otherwise. Note: If I was unable to actively monitor this trade, I would have kept my take profit level–it would’ve been risky not to set one around important news announcements unless you can be monitoring your charts. If I hadn’t set one and ignored the news announcement, this trade could have gone from a nice profit to a loss if I wasn’t watching. My exit was in 2 parts–I closed half my position somewhere below the 1.4700 level (lower blue line) and the other half was taken out by my stop that I moved down to protect me from losses from possible FOMC meeting reactions. The average price I exited at was around 1.4675.
Similar to my EURJPY trades, I had taken a nap some time before the FOMC meeting and didn’t wake up until after. However, before I went to sleep, I saw that huge bearish candle penetrating the 1.4700 level. In anticipation for the news announcement, I locked in half my profit at exactly 1.46606 and set my stop for the other half at 1.46879 which was ultimately triggered. The average exit price was about 1.4675.
This is a great example of why it’s important to manage your trades and how news announcements can impact your trading.
Entry date: 3/17/2015
Pair: GBPUSD
Entry: Sell @ 1.4823 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 1.4859 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 1.4709
Exit: 1.4675~average (Green dotted)
Pips: +148.5~average
Planned RR: +3.2
Actual RR: +4.14
Exit date: 3/18/2015
Trade #13 – EURGBP Short -1RR Loss
EURGBP H4
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EURGBP has been in a persistent downtrend and I was looking for areas to go short to capitalize on the trend. Price briefly paused at the 0.719 level (upper blue line) before impulsively selling off. This was the primary level I was looking to get short at. The level was a role reversal level and also coincided with the 0.7200 psychological level. Once price created a low at around 0.703 (lower blue line), it began to aggressively rally but that was soon slowed down by some bearish candles (relatively corrective). My entry order was set just below the resistance with my stop 20 pips away. My take profit was at the recent lows. My entry was triggered and I was soon stopped out by a pin bar.
What I should have done differently is seen the increased volatility on the corrective move and widened my stop on the entry.
Entry date: 3/17/2015
Pair: EURGBP
Entry: Sell @ 0.7187 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 0.7207 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 0.704
Exit: 0.7207 (Red dotted)
Pips: -20
Planned RR: +7.34
Actual RR: -1
Exit date: 3/17/2015
Trade #14 – EURGBP Short -1RR Loss
EURGBP H4
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This trade is based on the same analysis as the previous trade. This one had a lower entry and a much wider stop above the pin bar high that significantly reduced my RR potential. I reentered because a decent rejection (pin bar) had formed at this level after I was stopped out from the first trade. Regardless, I was stopped out by some impulsive buying. A smart thing to do would’ve been to go for a retracement entry on the pin bar as price never usually forms a V top. This would have improved my RR potential significantly.
Entry date: 3/17/2015
Pair: EURGBP
Entry: Sell @ 0.7181 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 0.7217 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 0.704
Exit: 0.7217 (Red dotted)
Pips: -35.6
Planned RR: +3.96
Actual RR: -1
Exit date: 3/18/2015
Net RR: -2
USDCHF H4
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One more trade to add that was affected by the FOMC news release. And yes, I was also asleep during this one. After the SNB shock, USDCHF has been in a steady uptrend and therefore long trades are what we want. On price’s way up, it formed one bearish candle at the 1.000 level (lower blue line) before immediately breaking through it to the upside (first yellow circle). That one bearish candle is an indication that there could be many buyers/sellers at this level and this is the level I was looking for weak pullbacks to get long on (Hint: It’s a major psychological level). It then created a high and retracted back to this support which ultimately held (second yellow circle). I would have gone long on this retracement but I missed it all together. All this was more than enough for me to setup a long entry order. My entry was right at 0.999 with my stop about 20 pips below. For this stop, I looked at how far priced dropped before reversing at the first test of the support level and I added a slight buffer maybe an additional 10 pips. My take profit level was toward the highs but I would have moved it up if price reversed strongly at the support level. After my entry was triggered, I was taken out by the FOMC announcement. The result was -1RR.
The same lesson applies to this trade as the previous FOMC trades. Manage your trades, be cautious of important news and make sure your alarm works.
Entry date: 3/18/2015
Pair: USDCHF
Entry: Buy @ 0.999 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 0.9969 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 1.0102
Exit: 0.9969 (Red dotted)
Pips: -21.2
Planned RR: +3.44
Actual RR: -1
Exit date: 3/18/2015
GBPJPY H4
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The last trade from the FOMC bundle. Like most of my trades, we identify a prevalent trend and in this case, GBPJPY has been in a downtrend. Therefore we look for short trades, primarily at role reversal levels. For this trade, 180.17 (upper blue line) is that level. As highlighted on the chart, that level was initially a minor support on it’s way down. Then after a few candles, it aggressively broke out to the downside before finding another minor resistance level. From here I was looking for a relatively corrective move to sell as it approached the support-now-turned-resistance (role reversal level). We got that corrective move to the resistance that also coincided with the 20 EMA which added additional resistance. This was where I sold. My entry was below the resistance level, close to the highs. My exit was above the resistance level, above the 20 EMA and above the entry candle highs. My take profit was originally around the 178.55 level (blue line) as that was where price found some support but I moved it down later. I moved it down because of the strong reaction we got from the resistance, getting 2 solid bearish candles bringing price very close to my initial take profit level.
I took profit in 2 parts, averaging to an exit of around 177.83. Note that I was actively monitoring this trade as it broke through the lower blue line. I locked in the profit for half my position at 177.63 when I saw more bulls begin to intervene and start push price back up. Then I moved my stop loss to around the 178 level to protect my profits. My take profit was set to the new lows that were created just above 177 in case price fell back down. At this point I went to take my infamous nap. Overall a good trade though.
Entry date: 3/17/2015
Pair: GBPJPY
Entry: Sell @ 179.92 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 180.34 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 178.4
Exit: 177.83~average (Green dotted)
Pips: +175~average
Planned RR: +3.5
Actual RR: +4.84
Exit date: 3/18/2015
AUDUSD M15
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This trade was simply an attempt to get short on a smaller time frame with a tight stop so I could capitalize on potential declines on a greater scale. The 0.7800-0.7810 level (upper blue line) lined up nicely with resistance on the H4/daily charts and is also a psychological level. I saw price had found this level as resistance twice (yellow circles) before this level was broken to the upside. After the breakout, it retraced back to the level but found no real buying pressure, hinting that it could have been a false break. I sold on the “pin bar” candle after price hovered around the level with a super tight stop just ~15 pips above. Risky but I would argue it was worth the potential reward. After that price sold off with strength and I was in around +3RR unrealized profit but price found support at the 0.7765 level (lower blue line) before reversing and eventually triggering my stop.
What I would have done differently is set my stop to break even after I saw that large bullish candle break through the 20 EMA after price found support at the lower blue line to protect myself from losses. Regardless–onto the next! 
Entry date: 3/23/2015
Pair: AUDUSD
Entry: Sell @ 0.78017 (Pink dotted)
Planned stop: 0.78171 (Red dotted)
Planned take profit: 0.7682
Exit: 0.78171 (Red dotted)
Pips: -15
Planned RR: +8
Actual RR: -1
Exit date: 3/23/2015