I am under the impression that, everyone is losing trades, even the best traders in the world. In fact, I believe that many professional traders may lose up to 50 percent of their trades over their trading career. On the other hand, I also believe that it is possible to attain a higher win percentage than that. I believe that the reality is that there has to be an element of randomness in the markets. However, there are also repetitive patterns that also occur. Most traders out there have a natural tendency to cut off their winners early and let their losers run. This causes them to have very small wins and very large losses. So, do the math. This factor makes it almost impossible for them to make money unless they have a very high win percentage, which is higher than any trader can attain. Today, I have made 2 trades in the mini Nasdaq futures. The first was a loss of 8 dollars. The second was a win of 14.00. There seems to be up trend activity in place today. The first I took on a rejection of resistance, so it was counter trend. The second I took after that with the trend. I like trading with the trend. However, when the trend has been going up for a long time, it can get a little stretched, and a rejection at resistance can often be a good trade. So, at a casino, someone goes in there to play, and the odds are stacked against them. The casino has set up their games such that they have a slight edge in the probabilities. For instance, they add two numbers to the roulette wheel in order to give them the probabilistic edge. At any one time, the guy who went in their to play could make a big win. But, over time, if he keeps playing, the casino knows that they have the probabilistic edge. They just need to wait and they will make money. They have, let’s say, just a 2 percent chance of making money. That’s an edge they have over time. Each role, spin or whatever has a certain given probability for the casino. It is always the same, over and over. And over time, they make money. Good trading is similar. You find what you believe is a high probability type of entry. You focus in on it. You learn a good way of managing your trades. You create absolute consistency around that particular entry and management. You see if it does have an edge over time. I would do that either on simulation, or using very small risk so that I don’t lose much money. You can do this on say 1 micro futures contract. Let’s say you do it for a month. You do an analysis of your stats. Let’s say these are your stats: you wan 60 percent. You risk to reward ratio was 1 to 2. That is some darn good trading. Now, let’s see what happens over the course of the year. You have total consistency in everything you are doing. You make the same entry, and the same management. You find out whether you are right that you have the probabilistic edge. I don’t tend to think of it as luck, even though, the idea of luck is probably really an idea of probability. Let’s say you leave where you live every day. You always do the same thing at the same time You go to the store. You pick up groceries. You come back. You have complete consistency. Now, usually you don’t think of probabilities. But, probabilities are in action all the time. Your probability of having a car accident are 1 in 1000000. Now, it’s hard to know what those probabilities really are, so I’m making up a number. So, you might have a car accident on the 1000000th time, or the 1st time. There is no way to know. But, somehow, you know that over 10000000 times, you will have 10 accidents. They will be spread out in a distribution. Now, the probability of you getting hit by a rogue asteroid is, 1 to 10000000000000000000000. So, it is very unlikely that you will ever get hit in the head by a rogue asteroid on your car trip. Take this kind of idea and think of the markets working in a similar way, and you learning to take advantage of it, by learning to take advantage of certain types of entries that have a particular probability over time. Without complete consistency, you can never know what entries and management actually do have good enough probabilities for you to actually make money. If you take that car trip everyday to the grocery store. But, you do things different every day. Now, the probability of your car accident is different every day. You have created something where you can never know what the probabilities are. You have created chaos. As for brokers, also take a look at Ninjatrader. You have to buy data on the platform, but you can buy Forex or Futures data. Most professional traders pay quite a bit for data. It might be an ok thing to trade Forex on. Getting into the idea of order flow in futures can help to more stack the odds on your favor, but it also can add more complexity. Under the hood, the market is really a game of buying and selling. The order flow shows what’s happening with that. Supposedly, there are traders out there who don’t look at charts, and just look at the order flow. Unfortunately, the order flow is sort of, messed up these days. Large trades are broken up into small ones and entered with an algorithmic computer program to make it hard to follow the tracks of the large traders.