Do you think after Biden’s victory that the dollar will rise?
That’s not so easy - on stocks just keep buying but on the dollar there are two pulls.
There will be a greater emphasis on diplomatic pressure, less twitter and fewer tariffs.
Likely a stimulus package for covid effect which will be positive USD as it has been for EUR.
Long story short - if you are short USD good chance that you will get squeezed 
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On the effect of stimulus on a currency - the most recent was in Europe.
I posted back in May the likely direction that the Euro would take, despite some negative comments based not on economics but on politics.
Like i said back then very important to separate your thinking - forget the propaganda - mostly it comes from guys who have no knowledge of the market - instead think like the market who couldn’t care less about politics.
Here the conversation:
And the consequence for EUR.
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Btw - the two yellow lines - they have been there back some months - the chart is daily - I’m still learning these fancy names - seems they call this a wedge - all I could see at the time was that the market was waiting for agreement .
Since the uncertainty of the election is now gone, the risk sentiment in financial markets may lean “risk-on”.
This would be bearish for the U.S. dollar, but great for risk-on assets (like stocks).
Assuming Trump behaves, I would expect USD to continue to weaken until the ECB meets in December when they may announce more stimulus to help counter the suppressed economic acidity in the EU due to the lockdowns.
This may cause EUR to weaken (and USD to rise), but this would be temporary, as this would soon be countered by the U.S. providing their own stimulus measures (which would be considered “risk-on”).
If a U.S. stimulus package doesn’t happen by year-end, this means it would be delayed until 2021, and the size will be influenced by what happens in the Senate elections. If the Dems can get a majority, they will definitely try to make it rain.
The coronavirus surge across the U.S. and across Europe complicates things though. If the positivity rate increases and cases accelerate, this may spook the markets.
This would cause the USD (and JPY) to strengthen due to risk aversion.
It would have to get really bad though as the markets have become desensitized to COVID news.
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A Biden victory - and certainly if he is successful in implementing any of his or Kamala’s policies are very negative for the dollar
However that does not mean it is going to collapse over night. I just means that any rallies which were likely to come are going to be weaker.
What I will say is that, if foreign investors start to think that Biden/Harris are moving too far too the left (which they likely will) there’s is likely to be Moody’s & SP downgrades to US debt.
The ratings agencies were threatening it with a Corbyn win in the UK, luckily Brits didn’t go that way.
But as the worlds reserve currency, they’re is no way the rest of the world are going to grant US dollar that status if they see marxism on the horizon.
None of this will happen overnight, and with Republicans retaining the Senate hopefully none of Bidens wacky policy’s are likely to come to too much.
Either way, the demise of America and the dollar are going to gain speed that much quicker now, like the final collapse of the Roman empire - it’s baked into the cake now very sorry to say
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President Karmela will be a rubber stamp for anything Pelosi passes, that means Trillions in new US debt. The dollar will have its ups and downs but the long term trend will be down,
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A dollar collapse is often talked of - usually by fringe commentators who constantly pump gold.
However if there was ever was an environment that could ultimately lead to a loss of faith in the dollar it is now.
I don’t think democrats have one sane economic policy between them, save lining their own pockets - foreign investors want to see some growth from the country who has the world reserve currency, not endless monetary expansion, and increased debts.
At some point all this ends for the US - it’s possible it happens in the next 10 yrs.
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Well said and I hope you are right.
Cheers
Blackduck
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Pelosi can pass anything she likes but she still has to have the numbers in the senate to pass that legislation. That is looking as though the republicans will have the balance of power there and will defeat any stupidity the Dems what to do.
Cheers
Blackduck
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What will keep the US going is how bad everybody else is, I don’t see any other fiat currency replacing the Dollar, with that said we will have inflation and lots of it, so you will want your dollars n assets that will inflate faster than the Dollar deflates, gold, Bitcoin and Tech stocks are a good bet,
One of those senators is the traitor Romney , don’t be surprised if he switches parties
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Oh for sure. He is the biggest rattle snake in the Republican Party. Although I have my suspicious about Lindsay Graham.
Cheers
Blackduck
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You might not see it - there is inherent bias in your thinking (not meaning to be offensive, I am assuming your American)
That does not mean it won’t happen.
Why on earth would foreigners consider you the custodians of the world with a hard left government who will only add to your demise?
Maybe we don’t need a world reserve currency, or maybe it’s time for the Yuan?
Foreigners are not going to keep loaning you money if it’s just going to squander on pork barrels, and corrupt democrat cities - which is what’s likely
Some of your states are already broke.
At least in UK we don’t have a socialist government, and a soon free of EU shackles
I would not be at all surprised if Gbp becomes a major beneficiary of the dollar demise
But you are correct - Gold is a no brainier now
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Yes I am American and I view my government as my enemy
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Anyone who says that the U.S. dollar will collapse anytime soon does not fully understand the international financial system or how global liquidity works. This view is too U.S. centric, especially since the U.S. does not operate in a vacuum.
This is no alternative to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency.
For the dollar to fall, holders must sell their dollars and other dollar-based assets for something else. What other asset can absorb such size in the trillions? EU bonds? JGBs? All with negative nominal or real rates? Doubtful.
It’s not like the Fed is the only central bank expanding their balance sheets. All major central banks are. It’s more likely that U.S. dollar will be the last to suffer from loss of confidence and will be the preferred place for capital to flow towards as it becomes the only safe(ish) market available.
The dollar will maintain its international reserve status for the foreseeable future.
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Personally I never said anytime soon.
You are predicating your thesis on having a responsible government.
And yes no government is responsible but it’s just possible this new administration becomes totally irresponsible.
Im aware that it won’t lose its status overnight but there are already rumours of a new monetary order in the works - this could just speed all that up
And yes there is an alternative to the US dollar right now called SDRs
The dollar??? Mmmmm the market will tell us. No sense trying to guess.
But I know exactly what WILL happen.
AG Barr will be sacked and Hunter Biden’s incriminating laptop will be confiscated by the corrupt CIA and FBI that will then squash any further investigation that will show the American people just how corrupt the Bidens are and how little they care about them.
It’s back to business for the elites as they get rich while they ignore both the poor and the middle class.
Cheers
Blackduck
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@TradingPanda I agree. If the USD is used for over 60% of the world’s transactions, I feel like other currencies would collapse waaay sooner than the USD.
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