John McAfee’s dilemma
In order for John McAfee to save his male appendage and his dignity, the price of bitcoin must reach one-million dollars by December 31, 2020. That means that, starting today, bitcoin must gain more than one-half of one percent per day for the next 932 days. The actual percentage is 0.5444905% per day, for the next 932 days.
Otherwise, John McAfee is going to need a venue for his live-television stunt. Then he’ll need to decide which t.v. networks to invite to his performance. And finally, he’ll probably need a big bottle of ketchup.
Let’s run the numbers.
John says the price of bitcoin will hit $1M by the end of the year 2020, or else …
In order for John to avoid the “or else”, the price must rise by $993,700 from today’s price of $6,300 (rounded off).
If the price were to rise linearly – which prices never do – bitcoin would have to gain a bit more than $1,066 every day from now until December 31, 2020.
But, prices (especially bubble prices) don’t rise linearly – they rise exponentially, with sharp retracements along the way. If we ignore the sharp retracements, and just assume a relentless, uninterupted, exponential rise starting today and ending at a price of $1M on New Year’s Eve 2020, then beginning today the bitcoin price will have to rise at a rate of 0.5444905% every day, on average, for the next 2 years, 6 months and 17 days.
If that were to happen, here’s what the bitcoin price would look like on the last day of each month, from now until December 31, 2020 –
If all that were to happen, I say we give ol’ John a 2-day grace period
(so he can put the ketchup away).