Bitcoin to fall off cliff?

And here is the advantage Bitcoin has over Gold, there is no “paper Bitcoin” gold’s decline is do to ETF’s (paper gold) with demand down for the real stuff price has come down as well. If the Bitcoin ETF had been approved last April I doubt we would be seeing $8,000 Bitcoin today. All new technology will have it’s rise and fall, and no doubt something better will replace Bitcoin just as the iPhone replaced the BlackBerry. As speculators, we must judge any investment, manage our risk, and talk profits. Will Bitcoin blow up at some point, history says yes. But until that time sky is the limit on how high this can go, and I am not going to be a mere spectator and wish I had bought at under $10,000 when price tops $100,000

So are you saying that you Own a small piece of a bitcoin then ? - How would you collect it ?

Bitcoin is no different than money on your bank statement, it is all digital. You can convert it to real dollars anytime you want

[quote=“Dennis3450, post:46, topic:117389”]
Bitcoin is no different than money on your bank statement, it is all digital. You can convert it to real dollars anytime you want
[/QUOTE]

No - when you are trading bitcoin, are you actually saying that you own a small piece of a bitcoin, which you can go and collect from somewhere ?

I use CoinBase exchange, they hold my bitcoin in an account in my name, it is no different than a brokerage holding stock in your name.

Every time Jamie Demon ( I mean Dimon ) trash talks Bitcoin we see an early day selloff followed by a rally to new highs

2 Likes

I think the price will continue to go up as long as there is FRESH Money that people are willing to exchange for - Well - exactly what ?

This is always the problem with bubbles and pyramid sales - They’re fien as long as you can find a “Bigger sucker” to buy your shares off you - but eventually someone says " The Emperor is naked ! "

:slight_smile:

So what is everyone opinion, Bitcoin $10,000 before or after New Year

It seems you found one then @Dennis3450 , Dennis :sunglasses:

before new year mid dec :slight_smile:

All things staying the same, meaning no big news, I think we’ll have to wait for 2018. Now if the Koreans band together, who knows.where BTC could go. They pushed Bitcoin Cash trading volumes like 5x the other week, above Bitcoin trading volumes, and then disappeared. Happens every couple months. And always on a Saturday morning (in Korea).

You’re question raises the very issue around what might be the Achilles heel of bitcoin. You asked[quote=“Falstaff, post:1, topic:117389”]
is there any real liquidity in it ?
[/quote]

This is the crux of the matter. If you want a real answer to this then I suggest trading real bitcoin with a real bitcoin wallet. What I mean by this is not a wallet with a company or exchange like coinbase, but rather a personal wallet such as electrum or one on your mobile phone. Then buy bitcoin through any exchange and transfer this to your wallet. It is the digital equivalent of taking your cash out the ATM. See how long this takes. Experimentally one could buy €10 or $10 of real BTC.

During busy periods especially when bitcoin is falling, you might be unfortunate enough to experience what is termed “congestion”. This is when an unusually large number of transactions are all taking place at the same time. I trade real world money and bitcoin for a side project through the Localbitcoin website. When the last mild congestion happened a week ago, I had to wait just under 24 hours for one transaction to process, in the real world, I had to wait 24 hours to send bitcoin from one wallet to another to clear funds. While this was happening the bitcoin was falling. Some others had to wait nearly 2 days!

Now, Imagine you are managing a large bitcoin exchange, exchanging tens of millions of Euros every day and clearing them immediately for your customers. Now, imagine a situation where the bitcoin is falling and everyone starts selling all at the same time causing a “congestion” issue. Imagine you now have 48 hours of bitcoin that you are waiting to sell, but a large amount of your customers have already sold their bitcoin in your exchange and have issued a withdrawal. Your exchange coould be losing out on millions each day due to this congestion in clearing. Imagine a situation where news gets leaked that the exchanges are having a multi million Euro / Dollar / Yuan liquidity crises caused by congestion , now everyone starts panic selling their bitcoin and trying to simultaneously withdraw real cash. I can extrapolate that the situation can spiral out of control as the network traffic continues to climb while prices fall as people panic because the programming of bitcoin is hardwired in such a way as to slow down as the traffic increases. In fact this has been sighted as one of the original plans and designs… to keep a lid on run away prices.

I’m not saying bitcoin prices will fall now, however I am raising a possible issue as to what could cause the end of the meteoric rise of bitcoin. It has to do with the fundamental structure of bitcoin and this is the reason for all the fork attempts of the programmers. Be careful out there people, I believe when the bitcoin falls we will witness a large amount of companies collapsing due to the congestion problem. So the answer to the question of liquidity in bitcoin, the answer is yes, when things are ideal and, No, not at all when things are bad.

After 5 months of consolidation, Etherium has exploded to new all-time highs, Litecoin is above $86 and near all-time highs and Bitcoin as I post $8775 again new all-time highs and that $10,000 mark by year end is looking pretty good

This is a weekly chart for Ether

Nice jump on Ethereum, Bitcoin may reach the 10,000 dollar mark before the end of the year.

…or before the end of the month.

Agree on bitcoin may cross 10k dollar soon, I think within few days it will reach the high.

A picture is worth …


Finance Magnates article:


Excerpts:

“The relentless Bitcoin buying frenzy we are witnessing is starting to get some brokers providing crypto CFDs to retail traders worried. IG Group has shared with the FT for a recent piece that it is limiting its exposure to cryptocurrencies.”

“With client demand driving brokers to take on more exposure on the long side, any sudden interruption in the market opens the floodgates to an SNB-style event. Remember how we highlighted in September 2014 an increasingly one-sided positioning from retail traders in EURCHF?”

“Mark November 2017 as the first time when you were officially warned about crypto volatility risks. I am pretty sure that it won’t be the last one.”

[quote=“Clint, post:62, topic:117389”] In an Excerpt his source said :-

“Mark November 2017 as the first time when you were officially warned about crypto volatility risks. I am pretty sure that it won’t be the last one.”
[/quote]

I think that’s a bit unfair, seeing as this threads been going 6 weeks since “Bitcoin = 5000 nearly” days :wink:

Here is todays chart from IG showing a Daily range from 11500 to 8600 and back ! - So 3000 pips a day ?

Anyway thanks @Clint for showing that IG and others are looking for to back out of the market with their pants intact !

I particularly like the tactic employed by the other Bookie - of introducing overnight interest at 175% :slight_smile:

It seems tht the cheapest and best way to trade Bitcoin is to actually buy some as it seems @Dennis3450 has done. :sunglasses:

Seems to me that with the liquidity issue mentioned earlier in the thread withn regard to withdrawals when the price is DOWN, the Spread better copanies like IG , need to cover their bets and the only option seems to be purchases at coinbase, who will delay any sales in hard times, letting the price potentially drop through the floor and costing the “Bookmakers” huge amounts.

Given the model of “Ownership” which seems to be emerging, one has to wonder who exactly is the beneficiary of this meteoric rise in this instrument.

There is no doubt that some have made some money over the past year or so :sunglasses:

So now some hold physical (Paper) Bitcoin in one of these “Accounts” others just spreadbet the instrument, which means teh Bookie has to hedge by buying physical (Paper) Bitcoin to underlie their short positions.

So we ave been informed that in a downside adjustment, liquidity seems to dry up and orders don’t seem to get addressed for DAYS !

Given a “Crash” scenario - “Days” is ample time for the value of the paper currency’s value to drop back to a dollar each !

Let’s say for the moment that this were to play out and then gradually the congestion cleared and coinbase were forced to fill the back orders at “market” ?

If we assume the average “Sell price” they received for the units from the Bookies and individuals like our @Dennis3450 was $5000 and now they have to buy them back at $1 - Whose interest is it in to allow this particular rise to an inevitable end ?

[Edit - quite a few Spellings and minor typos in this post - can’t be a**ed to go back and fix them all - sorry ! ]