NZD/CAD trade:
Day trade
Long or Short: Short
Entry Point: 0.83536
Profit Point: 0.83000
Stop Loss: 0.83700
Risk Level: 1%
Rationale:
Shorting 1 hour doji after recent push to the upside. Expecting a short pullback to 0.83 before continuation of uptrend.
Stopped out for a BE trade.
Hit SL last night. Small loss to account.
I feel like the title of this post sums up the start of my week perfectly. I’ve been looking very hard for some decent setups, but nothing has really come across my desk worth taking. The few trades I have made have either gone nowhere or were stopped out. I believe these are the times where no position is a good position to be in.
I am taking a break from looking at charts until later on tonight and I’ll see if I can make some pips this week! :47:
N.B. I’ve recently increased my time spent reading through the forums and I unfortunately this time spent reading has not been to improve my trading or learn new skills. I’am going to take a step away from the forums for the rest of the week and focus on my journal. :13:
EUR/GBP trade:
Swing Trade
Long or Short: Short
Entry Point: 0.83965
Profit Point: 0.82690
Stop Loss: 0.84500
Risk Level: 3%
Rationale:
Taking short given established resistance at the 0.84000 range and spinning top and doji candle sticks formed Monday and Tuesday. Supporting this trade is the strong resistance at the 1.47000 level on GBP/CHF which we are already seeing a bounce off. For the Stochastic lovers, we are just under the 80 level for oversold on the Monthly chart!!
NZD/USD trade:
Day Trade
Long or Short: Short
Entry Point: 0.84226
Profit Point: 0.83800
Stop Loss: 0.84400
Risk Level: 1%
Rationale:
Playing with Fibs and taking trade based off 1 hour doji.
Stop Loss hit
Stop loss hit
There’s really not much to be said when you repeat the same mistake… again and again…
The below posts sum it all up for me - if I don’t learn my lesson now, its perhaps time to move on from the FX world. Newbie status unquestionably reinstated. :29:
Draghi speech - 09/11/2012
2012 year in review
Shouldn’t be scalping - 09/01/2013
Another reminder not to scalp - 09/01/2013
An emotional trader is the worst trader - 10/01/2013
Lacking the skills to day trade - 18/01/2013
A great week swing trading!! - 18/01/2013
Don’t go chasing waterfalls (bored trader = second worst trader) - 23/01/2013
Next week is a new week but I have nothing positive to say right now.
Ok spent the week catching up on other responsibilities, playing Minecraft, rowing, and listening to old Metallica songs! All I need to do now is get more than a couple hours sleep, and I’ll be back trading again!
I am in a Fade to black, Unforgiven 2, and the memory remains mood…
[video=youtube_share;Q7C90sLh5Ok]http://youtu.be/Q7C90sLh5Ok[/video]
Metallica :57:
EUR/USD trade:
Swing trade
Long or Short: Long
Entry Point: 1.32500 - 1.33500
Profit Point: 1.3749
Stop Loss: TBA (Likely just below supportive candlestick)
Risk Level: TBA (No more than 3% :58: )
Rationale:
Trading with the upward trend in place since June 2012. We are currently in a pullback that is close to finding support on the bottom of the trend line. The 1.325 level was previously an area of significant support / resistance. Strongest correlation, USD/CHF is coming into the its first trend resistance level and a very strong resistance level at 0.925 (previously a significant support turned resistance). In addition, Stochastic is oversold on the daily chart and looking primed to push higher.
Pics:
N.B. Only thing I need now to make this trade a reality is some solid price action!
AUD/USD:
Only looking to short term trades on the Aussie. Were close to the bottom of the long term range and unless the Australian dollar has finally decided to fall (given some of the big moves recently… who knows), I don’t see a lot of good swing trades in this pair. I’ll certainly be looking to buy on some solid support between parity and 1.02 for a longer term trade but for now I am looking to just watch this pair (mostly)…
Maybe trades:
Day trade
Long or Short: Short
Entry Point: 1.0300 - 1.0330
Profit Point: 1.0180
Stop Loss: TBA (Likely just above resistant candlestick)
Risk Level: TBA (Not much, 1%)
Swing trade
Long or Short: Long
Entry Point: 1.0000 - 1.015
Profit Point: 1.04
Stop Loss: TBA (Likely just above resistant candlestick)
Risk Level: TBA (1%)
N.B. Both of the above are based off getting some good price setups to proceed.
Pics:
GBP/USD:
Bias: Weakening to major resistance of 1.53351
Swing trade
Long or Short: Short
Entry Point: 1.56500 - 1.57500
Profit Point: 1.53350
Stop Loss: TBA (Likely just above resistant candlestick)
Risk Level: TBA (Probably 3%)
Trade Rationale:
Waiting on a pullback on the top of the downward trend to get involved with this pair. Not considering going long given we have broken past the 61.8 Fib support level and there’s not much to stop this pair from falling to the major resistance level of 1.53351. However, I do note that we are currently sitting on a strong resistance level been 1.55000 and that’s what I believe will give me my pullback and entry.
Pics:
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USD/CAD:
Bias: CAD weakness to continue to push USD/CAD higher
Similar to AUD/USD, my intention is only to monitor this pair and look for short term trades. The CAD is in no mans land and I am not looking to waste long term capital on this pair. However, good price action would get me interested.
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NZD/USD:
Bias: NZD strength to push higher.
Other than a pullback to around the 0.83 level, I don’t have a lot of interest in trading this pair at the moment.
Pics:
USD/JPY:
So how far is this run on the Yen going to go for? I am not brave enough to bet that shorting the yen is no longer a good option but surely we should expect some pullback or serious resistance to stop the value of the Yen depreciating any further. At the recent G20 discussion, a lot of the focus was around currencies and preventing an all out currency war. However, given the size of the Japanese economy, its relevance to the world economy, the recent improvement in the Euro, and driving up the value of the USD. You would expect some serious buying of the Yen soon…but at what price…
Swing trade
Long or Short: Either
Entry Point: 94.500 or 91.500
Profit Point: ?
Stop Loss: TBA
Risk Level: TBA
Rationale:
So far February has shown the first slowing of the Yen that we have seen since October. We have been stuck in a range between 92.000 and 94.000, which could mean that the USD/JPY is about ready to drop or is consolidating before the next push higher. So I am looking to place orders above and below this range. I’ll catch the next swing higher or lower. Of course this is all subject to getting some price action confirmation.
In addition, we have a potential head and shoulders formation. I am also watching the other Yen pairs for confirmation patterns. The very fact that the Yen is now reacting to Aussie/pound/loonie weakness suggests that maybe this run is finally over.
Pics:
NZD/USD:
Bias: Strong upside potential remains.
Swing trade
Long or Short: Short
Entry Point: 0.8451
Profit Point: 0.8350
Stop Loss: 0.8465 (Now BE - 0.8449)
Risk Level: 2% (Now BE)
Bias: Against overall bias.
Trade Rationale:
Shorting NZD down to the bottom of the uptrend been 0.8350. Given the recent strength I believe a pull back is to be expected, however given this trade is against trend bias I’ve already moved my SL to BE. If this trade is successful, I will likely go Long at 0.8350.
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SL hit for BE.
Decided to make some changes to my trading.
I like this quote by Jesse Livermore “The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.”
I’ve completed my currency strength / weakness analysis and it looks like we have a lot of pairs that are currently range bound and at areas of key support / resistance. In addition, USD strength alongside YEN weakness is the only clear stand outs. The rest of the currencies aren’t moving much.
The above is supported by USDX which is currently making strong gains.
Fundamentally, we have a lot on in the currency world this week with interest rate decisions across the board, and non farm payroll at the end of the week. This is creating a lot of uncertainty and USD strength makes sense given the risk off attitude of the market.
I am in wait and see mode this week, not saying I wont be doing any trades but I am expecting that we will have some new trends formed after this week.
Aussie - close to parity (major area of support)
Kiwi - Bottom of trend line
Yen - close to top of consolidation area
Fiber - 1.30 major area of previous support
Cable - 1.50 area (round number support)
Loonie - close to the top of its weekly range.
Swissy - close to the top of its weekly range.
Gold - Bottom of its monthly range.
Bitters
Potential short on the Aussie around 1.0245 - 1.0260. Its in line with the overall down trend and at a key resistance zone. RBA has kept rates on hold and remains open to further cuts.
Took this trade, I am weary of Chinese data tomorrow although I am hearing on the grapevine that its expected to be on par or weaker! :51:
Here’s the trade:
AUD/USD:
Swing trade
Bias: Short
Long or Short: Short
Entry Point: 1.02346 (missed my better entry)
Profit Point: 1.01346 (100 pips will do but aiming for parity)
Stop Loss: SL is now at BE (very tight however I have my reasons)
Risk Level: 1.5% (lame but I am getting back into the mix)
Rationale:
Going with the trend baby! Entry was on a key resistance / support zone and in line with downward channel. Rates staying on hold was expected by the market so since nothing new has occurred I am expecting the trend to continue. However, I am very much aware of the beautiful hammer on the daily which could signify a trend reversal, hence the BE and originally tight SL. Also aware of Chinese data and parity support that would probably be enough to get this pair back on an upward trend.
I was stopped out at BE. Now waiting to see what happens next, might take this trade again if cant break the 1.0265 mark.
Update: Back in at 1.0265, I like this trade because its in line with the overall down trend channel and if the trend has changed I can still expect a pull back to gain some pips.
