Broken… :57:
Good luck.
Hmmm looks like my short might have just got stopped out (if I can only remember where I set it before comming to work its either .9930 or .9940 cant remember). Must be the old age setting in since tomorrow I turn the big 30
Looks like its been a choppy day today. I got stopped a while ago and dont think I will look to get back in today. we will see looks to be forming OTE but I can not trade it. I do however have tomorrow off so I might look to trade friday. Happy Bday to me 
Happy birthday man. Fortunately i haven’t gotten stopped out. I will be looking to Carry the sell though the weekend. Price is probably just at a short term resistance level. But that’s just an opinion
Happy Birthday my Friend… Rock the party… 
Salim
Thanks guys and Leg0nd your probably right. I just like to keep fairly tight stops till my trade runs a bit. Oh well I still made money.
thanks for that Bob, you forgetting the pivots, lol
What time are your pivots set to?
And Happy Birthday of course, have fun! :35:
They are all based on NY close. I like the ZNFX pivot indi for mt4 as it show all pivots (weekly, daily, monthly) I also kind of like the pivot daily macro indi on ICT’s thread
Excellent trade, Leg0nd…
hope you exited at 0.9800 area.
Well bob, she hit exactly the spot today. What we want is trade what we see. Fear is more harmful than greedy. When we get greedy and over confidence it goes to against us. But fear refrain us to trade a winning one.
Still learning.
regards,
What a great week for traders…! I have pocketed enough for this week, as I have tripled up my money, now I am staying out. So far my trend indicates on the bearish side possibly landing on the 97 mark. Once, there is some certainty them we will see the AUD/USD heading up, possible next week, if the European debt crisis does not trigger a surprise during the weekend. Happy trading people
Dont get home till you swear you never going to touch another drink in your life! Have a nice one! Cheers.
Thanks girlie. I dont not trade today instead I slept till noon and it was great. I see price got the the 9800 level almost to the pip and bounced a little. I honestly hope to see price bounce more maybe up to pairty or the 1.0200 level to set up a nice swing on the higher time frames. This will also give me a chance to show how to short a bull market. Easy to do when price is going down. Doing it when price goes up is a different story.
May Almighty give you all the happiness in the world, have a nice one.
That’s great to hear! I haven’t changed how I intend on trading the AUD/USD or the EUR/USD for this upcoming week. I
don’t see market sentiment changing this upcoming week unless some super great data comes out that I am unaware of. Plus gas keeps falling so i believe it’s safe to assume the dollar is going to keep rising. What are your thoughts bobmaninc? I just won’t enter a sell until price is about to cross the moving average going down on the 5 min chart. (actually right after the cross is when i would get in)
Hey Bobmanic. Great thread! I have added the Aussie and the Kiwi to my list of pairs to watch. I doubt Ill trade them anytime soon but it looks like i could pick up a few things about them from this thread so ill have an eye on it and these pairs. Keep up the good work AND the good trading! peace.
P.S. Happybday!
Thanks everyone
Since I didnt trade yesterday and I am bored. I am going to show you how I determined bias. Bias is very important even though I only short. It will greatly effect how I approach the market. I mean think about if the market is bullish and making higher highs and higher lows. Obviously waiting for OTE would be a bad idea with a 10-20 pip stop. As price would enter OTE and just keep going to make a new high stopping me out in the process. So depending on market conditions my trading approach will be different. I will show how I approach bull markets, Bear markets, and ranging markets. But first I want to show how I determine bias as it differs from most I have seen in here.
First I will steal the wycoff chart drawing from petefaders thread. I am sure most have seen it before. Petes more a supply/demand trader. I am learning that aspect but this basic concept can help in determining bias for intermediate/long term swings and valid S/R levels.
The first step I do is get a long term bias. To do this I look at the weekly. Just pretty much look at overall direction of market flow. Well just a quick look anyone can tell it is to the upside. Now I normally would not show this chart but there are some things I want to show as to why my overall bias has been so short lately.
In this chart I highlighted the concepts in the wycoff chart (grey circles) and a long term S/R level. Once price broke that long term resistance level my bias changes from long to short. Reason for that is the pair in my view just entered overbought and overpriced condition. The 128 fib rejection confirms it (more on that fib later). Now this does not mean the market will go down anytime real soon. But I will change up my way of approaching the market in anticipation of a overdue reversal in momentum. As most of us know the biggest moves in a reversal generally happen in the beginning. This concept will help you get into that move as you will see it coming. Again I will go deeper into how I trade my bias on my next few posts over this weekend. Right now I just want to show you how I determine bias. This can be more important than entries itself. As trade management tweaks, entry point change, risk stays exactly the same. Ok enough with the small talk back to the above chart. Now when price reaches the 128 fib you can reasonably expect price to range for a bit. Ideal situation is to range between the 100-128 fibs and you will get it a lot not every time but a lot. Play the range meaning long bias at the bottom of the range short bias at the top till price brakes out. If you play the range then if and when price does break out it does not matter which direction it breaks out in if you followed bias then you should be in at the best possible price.
Step 2 is to drop to the daily for intermediate term bias and repeat process. I was going to post a chart but I seem to be getting more into entries than actually determining bias. Which will be on the next few posts. I will go ahead and start on those and get back hopefully tomorrow. For now have a good night guys.
Hey bobmaninc. If you get some free time check out my current thread I posted today in the trade of the week section, I would greatly appreciate your advisement on the subject. I am not 100% set on the stops ( I fear they may be too close). My tp’s are acceptable I would imagine. I feel we trade similarly in foundation, although different in style and technique. I feel your opinions would be widely viewed and considered when taking into consideration a seasoned rookie’s attempt to accurately plan for the future market’s nearing arrival.
I checked out the post. Fundamentally it seems sound but I must caution you as technicals are pointing for an up week. As in the post above we are at the bottom of the weekly range we have been in for a long time now. However to back you there has been some real strong momentum with no signs of loosing steam. So it may break the support. Next support is at 0.9600 (provided we do break the 0.9800 figure). Always remember fundis are important but are long term. I would never recommend day tradeing off fundis. Unless technical analysis is backing it. Which I will not say is not backing you but we are heading into wait and see grounds. In a couple days we should know but at the same time waiting for the charts to confirm it by the time it does not only did you miss out on a 100+ pips by the time it is confirmed on the cart we will be approaching oversold/under priced conditions. At least on smaller time frames not the weekly. I do go off the weekly mostly for bias and daily like above I thought I used for bias untill I just made the last post it was then I realized I use it more for entry than actual bias. Although it does play into bias I will cover than on my next couple posts. I am watching my favorite show right now tanked. lol sorry but I love saltwater fish tanks. Been it that hobby for many years. If I had to make a choice between my tank or trading I would retire from trading.
I appreciate your insight as always and I look up to you as a trader. Believe it or not I’m watching the same show! I will keep what you said in mind and go back and re-read your previous post (before your most recent reply, as it is pretty in depth) until it sinks in.
Fundamentally my trading idea may be somewhat sound, but I have to admit I agree that in technical terms we are due for a reversal. Usually I don’t go for long term, but this week I’m going to test out a more long term approach, I guess we will see how that turns out (that’s why I questioned my stops). Are we at the bottom, or is the bottom still to come? A few days should hopefully yield an answer. Thanks again!
Thanks that also why I put it before my entries as that there is the hardest part to grasp. But it is how I can judge with no indicators overbought/oversold conditions. But that does not mean it will change anytime soon or that price will even respect it. However I will put it together that its about the approach. From there it does not matter what price wants to do your covered. When in a range ICT’s traders trinity works great. But on the weekly chart you would need about a quatarly trinity to gauge where price is and I dont think there is an indi made for it. It is easy to judge though without the indi. Just look at the range when in the top 3/4 look to sell. If in the bottom 3/4 of the range (in my case stay out or use bullish bias) look for longs. But I must also add my reason for bullish bias is only short term because we are at support in a range at the 128 fib (ideals conditions for a reversal on the weekly). BUt if the support gets broke my long term bias will not be long till the low on the weekly gets taken out @ 0.8000. I have nothing saying price will go that far nor do I have anything saying price will not go there so we take it day by day week by week. Price will do what it wants and thats not your problem. In the end it dont matter. So as you stated all we can do is see what happens. Fundamentally your sound technically your right on long term support so you could have got in at a better price. Ideally should get short at the top of the range and play the trade in anticipation of the break to the bottom. I do see price breaking the bottom but we are over due for correction and at a price level to cause the correction. So if it were me I would not expect the break out his time. However I also said that at pairty and we all know how that worked out lol. No losses to my account but price smashed that level like it didnt even exist. Will we see it again? You have to remember price has not been here in a long time so there are not many stops resting at these levels. In order to get stop at these level price must bounce at these levels to give reason to have stops. You cant raid what doesnt exist. You must make it exist before you can raid it. Just a little food for though there