I was checking around looking for a pivot calculator and came across some “expert” telling beginners to figure up their S & R from 5 EST to midnight. It’s no wonder my intuitions led me away from S & R lines. I’m still sorting this out, but I sure do appreciate it you helping us out. I tried a free online calculator and couldn’t get the same Friday calculations you got. I’ll keep trying until I get one that is true. Maybe you might know of one? EDIT: Nevermind, I found one. Thanks again. Getting the same calculations as you now.
Yes, I think a couple weekends ago when I saw a 100 pip move upward and back down starting at 2:00 EST during weekend trading might have been a case where the Sunday high would have been used instead of the Friday high. Thanks again.
Ok I’ve attached my set up. Heres how I trade the daily and manage on the 1h.
In a nutshell I look to the daily and select an entry based on wicks outside of the 5:1 boll (I dont trade the wicks). I wait until PA flat tops/ bottoms the 2:1 boll and candle changes colour and steps inside the 2:1 tunnel then enter the trade with a stop set just above/ below the highest/ lowest wick. Thats going to be my long term position (typically a few days). Last trade would have been a short at 1.6625 on the 03/12.
This trade if going in the right direction doesnt need to be fiddled with. However whilst the trade may be going in the direction of the longer term trend PA will still whipsaw back and forth across shorter TF charts. Now you have a choice, ignore the whipsaw confident that the trade will pan out on the longer TF chart or manage the trade.
If you are intent on fiddling with the trade I would suggest not going below the 1h chart. If you spot an obvious retrace you can either exit the trade until PA returns to the longer trade direction or hedge. The basic idea is your trading the longer term PA direction and simply lifting the trade or hedging when PA moves the other way.
When you incorrectly close or hedge a longer term trade it will only cost the spread and lost pontential pips. If you close the longer trade and enter a counter position thats when it can get expensive.
So either stay in the longer trade, close or hedge retraces but never close and enter a counter trade.
Might need to expand attached to 500%?
PS. Yesterday was an example of a hedge trade I was in. I thought PA looked likely to be a significant retrace so hedged. PA retraced around 50 pips against my longer short. Then I should have lifted my hedge and caught those extra 50 or so pips on the drop back. But I missed out but had moved my SL inside the retrace by 20 pips so still came out 20 pips to the positive on the hedge. The basic premise is actual longer trade in trend direction and manage either by closing or hedging. This effectively means your not actually trading for around 25-50% of the time… sounds counter productive doesnt it but its actually alot less risky than trying to get the pips both ways.
I run with the longer term trend on the daily. I can never tell how long its going to last. Take that big up on 13/10… I remember CAS and me repeatedly saying its got to turn sooner or later (much to your anoyance :)) but it kept on climbing!
At some point it bocomes clear that PA is forming a new longer trend on the daily but you will already be hedging on the 1h by then in any event. As it turns out this works out well as the most dangerous part of the trade is the initial entry on the daily. If your already in hedge mode youve locked in all the pips from the previous trend in any event. Now its just a judgement call on when to keep the hedge trade going as the new longer trend pattern unfolds on the daily and take the locked in profit from the previous trend trade by closing it.
To clarify… the hedge part of the change in longer trend on the daily TF chart is usually in and around the wick area on the daily chart. As I explained to John… thats the part of the chart (the wicks) I dont trade. I know technically I am trading it but in hedge mode.
That’s for the daily play sorted then. The weekly play works the same way.
Knowing these S&R lines as seen by the pit traders and big players is the beginning. Understanding how these S&R lines get played and profit from it is another chapter. They are very useful but on the other hand vey dangerous if you play your stops wrong.
These S&R lines go very well with bands. On GU 4H the middle and lower 1:10 band had been sitting in a flat angle on two of those S&R lines for 16 hours last Fri. After the 4H lower 1:10 band angle moved 1 pip up GU took off and tried to make a new daily high and got stopped out a couple of pips before reaching previous day high just underneath another one of those S&R lines. There are dozens of other examples in the past week alone across the majors.
A little note: Just change your Fibos to values like 90,80,70% ect. A different play book opens up.
Thank you so much.This will definitely help. However, i have few questions.
1)You analyse Daily TF but enter trade based on 1 hr,is that correct? If yes,you hedge when there is retracement based on what is going on in 1hr TF?
2)Where do you get idea of overall direction of the trade,Daily,4hr or 1 hr? I am asking this because there is almost always conflicting signals in the overall directions for these 3 TFs.I think my Achilles’ heel is getting the overall direction of the PA.
“If you close the longer trade and enter a counter position thats when it can get expensive.” What do you mean by this? I though,say for example,you are going long for longer trade and you notice that there is whipsaw or retracement,you are either open a new postition to go short while still leaving the original long intact or open a new position and go short while closing, in the interim, the longer long position. And when when you discover that the cloud is now crystal,you open your old long and close the hedge(short).
I enter on the daily TF set up. But of course I will look to the 1h to check PA is going in the right direction. Yes I hedge the 1h TF chart.
Daily.
Ok this requires a longer answer. If your trading the longer TF charts (in my case the daily) you must expect PA to zigzag up or down the over all trend direction to a greater or lessor degree. Now you can either put this fact out of your mind and simply focus on the trend or you can manage the trade.
There are two ways to manage the trade (actually there are more but lets keep it simple). 1) Close the trade and wait for PA to resume in the direction of the trend and re-open. 2) Hedge the trade. Hedging simply means you take a short term counter trade against your longer position. At that point it doesnt matter what PA does as your trade is effectively cancelled out i.e. you now have a trade running both ways (but the profit you have made thus far is locked in). Then you lift the counter trade when PA returns to the longer trend.
The dangerous thing to do is to close your longer trade and then enter a new trade that is counter your original longer term trade. If PA is still in say a longer down trend but has temporarily retraced against you, you should close the short or hedge. Not close and enter a new trade against the trend. More often than not youll lose.
Awesome. I am more than satisfied with your response.I will apply this to 4hrs TF and use daily and 1hr TFs to analyse my entry and exit and hedge.
God bless.
John.
After doing extensive investigation about this poster,i am convinced that you are either one of these folks who was once banned from this forum or that you are one of these folks who left unceremoniously over one thing or the other.