errr… what has this got to do with bollinger bands?
Hi JonnyBS,
Just downloaded the snake and i think its wonderful. Will try it out on my demo for awhile.Thanks for sharing.
Just out of curiousity, what did you mean when you said it has been ‘redone’.
Happy weekend to you all.
ADE.
e/u hit tp of 59 pips and i close G/U at +110 
p.s. what exactly does that snake thing do?
edit;
just closed a counter trend e/u for +20
Hello ADELEKE and hellogoodbye,
I said it was redone because the first zip file I downloaded was empty.
An interesting setup you may want to try is as follows:
Color Line Width
- Lime 4
- Red 4
- GreenYellow 0
- Tomato 0
You can also set-up a second Snake with an IPeriod of 3 for playing the bumps in the road. Download attached zip file. The attached Snake code has been redone by me to allow an IPeriod down to 3. The first Snake has a minimum setting of 24.
Remember the Snake like any other indicator is valuable only if used correctly.
It is a keep you in the game type of indicator so you don’t jump off the ship before the ship hits the dock. The Snake is no different then R Carter’s method with a smoothing code. The code actually uses LWMA’s. The Snake just shows you graphically instead of with lines on top of the PA.
You still have to do your due diligence and watch the Bols and the LRC. So remember nothing has changed. Just because you’re making money at this game still doesn’t make you a professional trader. Don’t ever get over confident and quit learning new things.
The comments by the main group here Like San Miguel, R Carter, TalonD, MasterTang, and all the others are all still valid and you need to listen, learn and keep asking questions. They are not always correct in their evaluations but nobody ever is or will be unless your a newbie straight out of college who just completed a five week course on the Forex. In that case you’re a God and I bow to your intelligence.:rolleyes: Be your own best analyst and blame yourself for your own mistakes.
The absolute worst thing you can do is get lazy by using these indicators. Understanding what these guys are doing and why will help you understand why the indicators are reacting as they do and eventually you’ll adjust the code as I do now.
I’ve attached a chart section so you can see the Snake setup.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
SnakeJBS.zip (8.06 KB)
well I was just playing around with my trading idea on an Excel spreadsheet to come up with some statistics. So If I can say with 78% confidence which direction price will go and that it will go at least 20 pips minimum. and therefore there’s a 22% chance it will not make it to 20 pips before it changes direction and heads the other way… Can you build a trading strategy on that?
Stop Loss is the tricky bit.
hmmm assuming my math and spreadsheet skills are not faulty that is…
im interested in how you backtest using excel, id like to try it but i dont even have the slightest clue where to start that
well I was just playing around with my trading idea on an Excel spreadsheet to come up with some statistics. So If I can say with 78% confidence which direction price will go and that it will go at least 20 pips minimum. and therefore there’s a 22% chance it will not make it to 20 pips before it changes direction and heads the other way… Can you build a trading strategy on that?
Yes you can Its how I have been trading the last few weeks;) overbought/oversold is the key. Bands and MAs are the guides. I have been placing most trades off the 15 and 5 min chart so my goal is only about 10 pips 20 might be good off a 1 hr chart. I watch the trades and try not to let them get to negative. my stoploss is an oh crap stop. The more constraints you put on an individual trade the more likely it will fail.
your stats are very close to my real results
I was just looking at GU daily. 96% of the time price will either go above the high or below the low of the previous day’s High / Low. Sometimes it will do both.
When it does that then 78% of the time it goes at least 20 pips. Of course, a certain percent of the time it goes a lot more that 20pips, Looks like somewhere around 55 or 60 is optimum, but that’s not taking into account SL.
So it’s kind of the opposite idea of selling the overbought and buying into the oversold conditions. Sort of trading it as it goes into OB / OS rather than trading it as it comes back out of OB / OS
i tried working with that system, looks like it could work, buying above the daily highs and vice versa but never got around to fully testing it
I have noticed that same thing. I have never opened a trade because of it but I have held a loser at the start of a new daily candle betting a wick would form in my favor.
TalonD
Last summer I found a method by OrangeRoshan. The method is called Support & Resistance Daily Candle system, aka “SRDC” and I’ve attached the PDF.
The Basic Method and Advanced Strategy, Level 1 use the high and low of the previous day for support & resistance and is very much like what you’re talking about.
Also, the more advanced “SRDC” methods make use of linear regression channels so the LRC folks should also take a look.
Last summer I traded the advanced method with the linear regression channels. I have mixed feelings about the LR channels, but having said that I suggest folks take a look for themselves.
I hope the PDF file attaches…
SRDCmethodv13.pdf (1.12 MB)
Hello carll,
I see from your vast years of experience and hundreds of posts that mistakes you have none.:rolleyes: I type and think with the news on and sometimes with music in my ears. I have discussions with my wife while all this is going on as well as viewing my trading screen and making trades at the same time.
You say more quality and less quantity? Who gave you the right to judge anything? From your few meager posts and only one of which is on this thread I see no earth shattering words of infinite wisdom. Who are you to question another’s creditability? I do not post for your type of person who is only here for what they can get and are critical of others that post freely and make an occasional error.:eek:
Are you so advanced in your trading skills that we are not worthy of your comments. I think you’re more like the college kid who told me he was an expert because he received an “A” in a five week Forex course. If you are such a detail nut and afraid to make a mistake you will never get anywhere but stuck in indecision. If you don’t like my post don’t read them. Believe me it won’t hurt my feelings.
If you’re looking for expert documentation on the history of the Federal Government and all the idiots and their names you’ve come to the wrong place. If you think knowing what idiot caused which financial crisis is going to put a damper on my trading skills you would be highly mistaken.
A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem.
[B]Albert Einstein[/B]
A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be.
[B]Albert Einstein [/B]
Trade well and prosper, if you can,
Johnny
Hello witsnpips,
Your question has a simple answer. The truth is that Bollinger Band trading with MAS is rather a limited subject and doesn’t prepare one for the actual art of trading. Teaching the bols I’ll leave mostly to the resident experts San Miguel and R Carter and they do a great job along with their sidekicks TalonD, Shr1k and others. I try to add more varied subject matter although I here about interest rates, currency strengths, commodities and other things from all of them and I enjoy their commentary.
Since I see you just arrived on the scene in January I suggest you learn first and trade last. Hang around and learn by asking constructive questions. We won’t bite but some of us arn’t afraid to put you in your place either.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny:)
Whether it’s Volker and the “Savings and Loan Debacle” or Paulson and the Mortgage Meltdown it didn’t take a Harvard degree to figure out the system was getting screwed up yet they both said didn’t see it coming. The bad decisions by both led us to financial calamities. I say bull crap. A first year Accounting or Business degree major could have seen the mess coming. See the chart and comments I down loaded from the Prudent Investor below at the end of my comments.
Because of their blindness to either their own mistakes or the mistakes made by others prior to either taking office, we are in the situation we are in today. If either would have done their job correctly there would have been no need for them to save us from anything. I believe our interests were not what they were protecting.
Both of these numb skulls were entrusted with the Crown Jewels of the country and both let the thieves steal them. This cost the American people billions upon billions in ransom. These bastards are then put on high pedestals for handing the thieves the ransom money. They both go down in the history books as financial G_ds and even though we know the identity of the thieves, they are let off free to do it again. What the hell’s wrong with this picture. The American people are being ripped off by a bunch of thugs which makes Al Capone look like a petty thief.
Hank Paulson made three quarters of a billion dollars at Goldman Saks. It seems strange to me he was one of the main characters involved in changing the leverage and regulatory rules to allow this bullcrap to happen. It’s the fox guarding the chicken coop. Big money pulls the strings in this country and we are their puppets. For that matter, they control the world and have done for centuries. Their sons will never die in some distant land fighting a useless war. Their wives and daughters will never do a hard days labor toiling in some factory. Our laws are not their laws.
At least for now they let us trade.
Johnny
WEDNESDAY, JULY 06, 2005
SEE ATTACHED CHART
Chart Of The Day: US Debt (That Was In 2002!)
I have seen this chart popping up on several dozen websites in the recent days and had it emailed by some readers of my blog as well. Although the picture looks already daunting enough it has to be pointed out that the chart ends at year-end 2002. According to Michael Hodges from Grandfather Economic Report total known US debt has since risen to 40.1 trillion dollars or roughly a third more - see this post - than the chart shows.
CHART: US debt reached 300 percent of GDP by the end of 2002. Debt has risen another third since then while GDP growth of 3.5 percent did not match this anywhere closely. Courtesy of Gabelli Funds
As US debt is nearing a level of 400 percent of GDP one question remains: How long can such an unprecedented situation be sustained? The Federal Reserve is truly caught between the danger of runaway inflation through higher energy prices and the danger of a financial collapse by higher interest rates which have already slowed down the property market in some regions. Recent money supply figures suggest that money is still around in abundance. See also this post.
This brings us to the question whether we actually see a Ponzi scheme. Every Ponzi scheme works as long as there is more money flowing in than taken out.
The Fed lends a helping hand in this process as it injects more liquidity than ever into the markets (look up the Treasury auction results), thereby neutralizing the tightening effect the rate rises should have. It is as simple as that: As long as lenders can borrow money and refinance a sum that includes the interest on the former debts the game can go on forever.
Only problem: It never went on forever.
Now tell me that not one time did Mr. Paulson or Mr. Volker ever see these numbers and chart? How about the chart showing the number of people applying for a home mortgage vs the ones being denied a home mortgage? How about the amount of money in the till and how much leverage the big investment houses were using? The Feds have 8.5 million government employees checking on the 300 million of the rest of us. They have data on how many times the average person farts.
So when these two idiots say they never saw it coming I just don’t believe it. I saw it coming and I don’t have a Harvard degree in Finance. All you have to do is open your eyes and look and listen. Congress fired an economist in 2005 for telling them what they didn’t want to hear. I worked for companies with the same mindset. The rule was never but never be the bearer of bad news if you wanted to continue working there. Let them hire a consultant to do the dirty work. Those companies have one foot in the grave now because they would not change.
I’ve had company CEO’s crying like babies when I told them they were the problem. Most already knew it but were afraid to face the truth. I was the man they paid to borrow their watch to tell them what time of day it was because they didn’t believe their own employees could tell time.
With Congress it’s much worse then the CEO story. They don’t even understand what it is the economist are saying and could care less. Their happy as long as they have a fat paycheck, a big pension and get enough pork barrel projects approved for their district so they get re-elected.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
Thank you D-PIP.I will have to go through this and get back to you.What concern(s) do you have about LRC?
Enjoy your weekend,
Headmaster.
Johnny,
It seems to me that you trade more of fundamental than technical analysis.With all these write-ups here,it seems you are a bit baised toward fundamentals.Based on your deep knowledge of both stocks and forex,why so much emphasis on fundamentals? Make no mistake: I am not condeming it but rather commending it but i just want to know why you are rooting so much for fundamentals economics in shaping your trading decisions about forex?
Enjoy your weekend,
Headmaster.
Thank D-pip, I’ll take a look at it. I wondered if I was trying to reinvent the wheel. If anyone had done this already.
E=(MC^2)/sqrt(1-V^2/C^)
A. Einstein
Well I figured since we’re quotin d’man.
lol
geek humor
Edit:
Dam, looks like I have been reinventing the wheel. And here I was thinking I had thought of something original.
I wasn’t enquiring as to the reasons for your inaccuracies, but I see now why your focus & attention to detail is a little suspect.
That might also explain why you steer the thread off-topic so much with the novellas.
You might want to consider omitting those types of comments in future if you’re intent on setting a good example to the newer members seeking advice & direction.
Less quantity, more quality!
Enjoy your weekend 
Hello Headmaster111,
The fundamentals shape all the markets of the world. The technical’s are the score cards although on the intraday charts Big Money does move the numbers to their advantage. In the end the fundamentals will always win and the currency finds its equilibrium after being over or under valued. If the economy that is supporting a currency is falling apart, the base value of that currency cannot sustain its current value.
Quantitive easing or interest rate increases will help to keep the value higher but if nothing else changes the value will begin to drop again. We then find an opportunity to short that currency and make a profit. Like the current trend with the Euro.
Australia for example is a commodities based economy shipping iron ore, coal and gold as well as wool and wheat. If the world manufacturing centers such as China and Japan do well then so does Australia. The problem they have is their narrow export base. Knowing these things can help you evaluate their current strengths and weaknesses. Watch the price of gold with this currency it has a tendency to follow it.
One of the biggest factors is the interest rates as I’m sure you know. Understanding each countries current economic condition tells you which is likely to change its interest rate thus presenting an opportunity to make profit.
The U.S has a huge economic base that can support more debt then all the other countries and that is why in times like these investors flock to the dollar just because of the economy backing the dollar is wide based and large.
You can trade without knowing anything but wouldn’t it be better to know what’s going to happen and be trading that currency pair as it’s making large profitable moves. It’s definitely more fun.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
yipee my computer is fixed. Now I can get back to trading.
I was just looking for the chat room. Taken off line? Not enough interest in it?