Absolutely, I don’t trade the daily until Tuesday after Monday has set the hi/lo. I’m also not looking at the current candle in isolation but ‘X’ candles on that tf (daily/weekly) as well. Also on HA the colour of the current candle and colour of the previous ones and direction of trend.
Ok, but the channel opening up is what I’m pointing at I suppose.
We’re talking about the 2:1 indicating a buy zone but it hasn’t hit it’s lows yet, you could very well hit the low range, price retraces, ok now we have the 2:1 indicating a low but price has to come back to that point before we can go long, which may never happen. On the weekly it would be even worse as you have to wait for the channel to open and by the time it’s formed/indicated a bottom, price may have already bounced.
Yep fine, assuming that that was the full range, which given it’s a week might not have been set yet.
Let’s say the range of a typical week is 400 pips.
Range 1.0500 - 1.0100
Price in uptrend
Price opens at 1.0450 on Sunday, hit a low of 1.0300 but moves up a bit again. The 2:1 lower boll will now be at 1.0300.
So, we get long at 1.0300 on Tuesday?
Yep, granted but X in this case is 2 and only 1SD hence the “snapping” of the lines to highs/lows.
Yep, I don’t doubt the trend part or the LWMAs indicating likey range.
Sorry if it sounds like I’m busting your balls 
- but I just can’t see the 2:1 being of use in those cases due to the widening of the range.
I do have an idea though, which you can now attack :rolleyes:
Take the average amount of pips that price got to within the LWMA of previous weeks - that should give you a mathematical average of a likely entry point based on the LWMA range - again subject to the LWMAs moving.
One thing I’ve noticed is, if a candle closes above the bb, the chance of reversal are increased.
I would agree with that. That may be a counter trend trade but those can work too.
ok now we have the 2:1 indicating a low but price has to come back to that point before we can go long, which may never happen.
There’s the fly in the ointment.
Well lot’s of intelectualizing is interesting but there’s nothing like a live experiment, in demo anyway so I’m giving it a shot. And RC you’ve been making pips with it right? Positive overall …so far?
I can see San’s arguments against this but there is a close variation on this whole idea that has been succesfull for those trading it and that’s Rui’s mmtt thing.
And even the old original bollinger bounce idea that started this thread is similar where the outer bands represent the tunnel boundaries right?
I’ve been demoing it with positive results too but literally just taking trades at the extremes.
The difference with the usual bollinger band is the 20 period average as opposed to 2.
what I mean by the standard boll is the deviation lines represent extremes of price where in this latest idea its either the 2:1 high boll and 2:1 low boll that highlite the extremes of price. Either way the general concept of selling into highs and buying into lows is the same. At least that’s the way it seems to me. I see similarities in different trading ideas.
Current update for week 2 testing
Not as good as last week but that’s the way it goes
Had I stayed with the trend on AUDUSD I would have got 250 pips.
Instead I am on a current profit of 45pips.
Also, I had some trades trigger today on GBPCHF(sell) and AUDCHF(sell), which are currently down and perhaps would have been best not to enter trades on this method on a Friday as I don’t hold over the weekend and it makes the RR kind of pointless with only a few hours to go:
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Pips Actual
24488622 21/07/10 00:56 sell audusd 0.8823 0.8957 0.8646 22/07/10 16:04 0.8920 0 0 -0.25 -0.0097 -97
24440574 20/07/10 08:21 sell eurjpy 113.3160 113.3160 111.1760 20/07/10 14:38 111.8980 0 0 0 1.4180 142
[B]TOTAL 45[/B] [I]Potential total 300[/I]
Open Trades:
Ticket Open Time Type Item Price S / L T / P Price Commission Taxes Swap
24440101 23/07/10 14:46 sell audchf 0.9359 0.9507 0.9062 0.9410 0 0 0 -0.0051 -51
24517166 22/07/10 00:07 buy eurchf 1.3406 1.3406 1.3658 1.3538 0 0 0 0.0132 132
24440099 23/07/10 15:08 sell gbpchf 1.6158 1.6316 1.5841 1.6239 0 0 0 -0.0081 -81
[B]TOTAL 0[/B]
I know u don’t like mt4, but have you tried the MTF moving average? You can open a 15m chart, and youll be able to see the daily LWMAs, and any other TF you’d like. Ive got the daily 1h and 15m. Looks like a good set up
I have been trying to get a version of the MTF moving average indicator for Marketscope, myself, just to eliminate the extra step of having one of my MT4 platforms open. If it hasn’t already been done, I may request it on FXCodebase - which already has scores of really cool custom indis made for the Marketscope .lua extension.
Also, up 14.2% this week off the stop hunting strat, lots of wins 2 losses, only traded a few days too. This deserves further testing 
I think I missed your stop hunting strat. What is it?
Thats why my stops keep getting hit:eek:
GBPJPY, enter 15 pips before a whole number, trade in the direction price is going. So short at 131.15 and long at 131.85. Open 2 lots, first target is the whole number, second is either 10-20 beyong that. at +13 pips i suggest moving stop to BE on both lots/trades. works pretty well, i use a 1:1 SL, use google, u can find the page I found this on :p, slightly edited though
Yes Shr1k, you paid for my 18oz sirloin tonight, Thanks lol
When making this play entering short, if momentum is slow, try setting your t/p not at the 85 mark, but at the 90 mark.
The spread kinda kills the chances of a sell being successful all the way to 85.
An MT4 chart will show 85 got hit, but your ask line won’t quite make it sometimes.
Not exactly sure what you mean, I enter at .85 or .15 and aim for whole number, if you mean enter at .9 or .1, that could work. I was thinking of that as well, but if you mean enter at .85 and target .9, well minus spread that’s a 1 pip gain :eek:
Say the A/U is at .8715, and you enter with 00 and .8675 t/p points.
When price hits the 00, momentum slows, and it’s a fight on down.
The likelihood of the ask line hitting the 85 mark even though the bid line does is greatly diminished. So, to combat this, raise your second t/p in this instance to 90.
It’s kind of a failing I see in MT4 that the charts are constructed from the bid line. Buys aren’t a problem, but I always adjust my short trades for the spread both on t/p and stop.
On my live account PFG’s platform creates charts that are based on the “last” whether it’s a buy or sell.
It really clarifies price movement when you are dealing with tight zones for your trades.
Oh, that’s not a problem, once the first TP is hit half the trade closes and the rest is moved to BE, the 2nd TP is just a bonus 
Been working on my improved Bollinger Bands some more. Still have 4 deviations and 2 MA’s. Signals are better though I’m working on low time frame charts because I believe if you can ever get a system to work well on low time frames it will work great on the higher ones, the lowest I have been able to make this work properly so far is the 5 minute chart.
As you can see there are distinct crossovers at the highs and lows of both the MA’s and the deviations themselves (MA’s are dotted lines) , price bars are the signal when they break the deviations at the same time as the MA has crossed over.
In other words, first ask price to come in lower than all the deviations while the dotted yellow MA is lower than the red is the buy order.
First Bid price to come in higher than all the deviations while the dotted yellow is above the dotted red is sell order.
Each of those is obviously also the exit point of the other.
Can you let us know the colours of the various MA’s and deviation/s on the chart SDC. 4 Std Dev? Which lines? Looked real close and I’m guessing.
The dotted red and the dotted yellow are both LWMA
The two pink lines are standard deviations created from the dotted red LWMA and the two blue ones are standard deviations created from the dotted yellow LWMA
They differ in this indicator in a couple of ways from regular bollinger bands in that the actual calculation for creating the deviation of the blue ones is slightly different from the calculation for the pink ones, also the upper blue band has a different deviation value from the lower blue one, same with the pink ones, they also have different deviation values.
Im thinking about creating a dynamic calculation for the deviations so it will use a larger deviation during higher volatility when the average size of the price bars are bigger and a lesser deviation when the average price bar length is less