In reality on the 1h chart trading, as I am now short. I will not become too concerned if PA retraces to around the center line boll as even whilst trending, PA will bounce from the lower boll band to center line and down repeatedly whilst still heading south (which on the 5m and 15m will be over the center line boll and even into the upper area boll bands. 
R.C, I agree, PA is headed down. I have a sell following my 1h strat. Iāve got a 100pip trailing stop, hope thatās ok, I adjusted it a couple times already as price headed back up towards center boll and I felt the stop was too close and might get hit.
With these bounces back and forth on the way down, I can see the value your hedge idea. Followng the 1h down an not taking advantage of the little retraces can leave a lot of pips on the table.
M.G. Iām not using much for indicators. today I decided to try not to look at a 15m chart and just follow the MAs on the 1h chart. from another thread I was looking at a stochastic, itās been high but now has turned down so thats a confirmation of price action. last week I missed making about 600 pips because I was messin around with the 15m instead of following the MAs on the 1h, I still havenāt done much with the bollinger bounces but will give it a try eventually
Good luck with your 1h strat Mike! I really like it. Just got to switch off from price line / candles and trade that cross. Keep the faith its proven itself for two months now.
So i took another hit on my sell much earlierā¦ Im def doing something wrong. But now the 1H chart looks to be heading up. It crossed the mid Boll and the MAās are gonna cross.
Take a quick look at post 1180ā¦ all will be revealed You need to work one time frame.
Just read it. So basically I should hold the new short im in for a day or two and if the 15m chart hit the bottom Boll I should close the trade and take what I got? I just placed a sell in relation to what was happening hoping this uptrend will trace far down.
Mike G
Hi Mike
Its confusing I know. But in a nutshell just pick the time chart that best suites you and trade it. TalonD has 1 h strat that has proved for the last two months forward tested to be a very high earner. I also trade the 1h chart. But it means only placing a buy or sell perhaps 3 times a week or less (hedging aside). If you look to the 1h chart the centerline bollinger band has come over. That means that in the longer term PA should head south. But there is an upper and lower boll band and PA can bounce around it but hopefully overall head down.
Or if the 1h chart range is too much for your taste you can trade the 5m or 15m charts.
Iāll stick to the 1H chart if thats what you guys trade. Itāll help me learn a little better. On the 1h chart do you reccomend 4 LWMAās 3,6,9,14 or 2 7/14? Also When you say PA what are you looking at exactly?
Mike G
on the 1h I have several lwma averages, donāt remember the numbsr off hand and donāt have my chart up, but the exact numbers donāt matter. not looking at candles they can be misleading in this case. just use a price line. its less scary that way. when all the averages cross the center bollinger which is a 20sma by the way. then buy or sell in that directon.
Price action, price bounces up and down within the bollinger bands and a very long way on the 1h chart 50 , 60 pips or more thats why Iāve got a 100 pip stop loss right now. Overall price PA appears to be headed down in general despite the rather large ups and downs withing that overal trend down.
of course thereās no garantee that it wont turn around and head up but donāt let the 60 or 80 pip up moves fake you out of the overal down trend.
thatās my take on it right now. but as my dad used to sayā¦ āone never knows do oneā and āyou canāt sometimes never tell what to least expect the mostā
oh yeah, since Iām using a 100 pip stoploss I reduced my trade size so that if I do loose 100 pips, itās still only about 2percent of my account.
so thatās the tradeoff, on 15m you can have a bigger trade size but you get fewer pips, on 1h you have smaller trade size but get more pips. Itās tricky to find the right balance. as I gain confidince I may increase lot size on the 1h trades
now MAs are crossing up. Seems like I always pick the wrong direction 
PA bounced off 63 MA on 15m @6309. That was the first signal that PA was going to change direction.
Euro and Gold took off.
PA went straight through .6350 major Resistance. That was the second signal that PA was [B]going[/B] to go up.
Shortly after GU took off.
hmmm
with all these signals I keep missing will I ever get the hang of this
Yeah, you will. It comes with practice.
Lots of practice. Sometimes I feel like Iām blind in one eye and canāt see out of the other.
Hope Iām not leading M.G. astray with my earlier seemingly convincing analysis. I certainly had myself convinced.
Thanks for the encouragement
I see this every Sunday:
opening gap
gap fills
Iām considering just trading that every Sunday for 30-50 pips as a side strategy - want to backtest this a bit though as Iām sure there are times it gaps and doesnāt fill.
Went long on GBP/USD and EUR/USD and short on USD/CHF. I looked at the 1H charts for the crossover MAs, then at the 15m for the crossover points there. This was at the 1400 GMT candle on the 1H and and the 1430 candles on the 15m.
Iām not looking for much on swissy and the euro, only about 15 pips each. The euro looks like it is moving into a channel and I see resistance at 1.49624 on the 4H for E/U. Unless anyone thinks it may go higher?
I put my SLs at the mid BB on both the swissy and euro trades.
What Iām most curious about is the pound. It looks like it might trumpet on the 1H but thereās a squeeze coming on the 4H. Could this be a good intraday position to hold Long? I put my limit at 1.64901, looking for a 90+ pip gain. If I get there, should I hold for even more?
Iām waiting for a definite close above 1.64 before deciding, Iām still with the view of a short but this isnāt following the MAs, just based on SR.
You should read all the forum posts on different sites about GU at the moment - 50% opinion to sell the hell out of it, others are going long etc. etc. -
Just looked over all the recent postsā¦ Im gonna try some things when i get home later in dealbookā¦Your def not mis-leading me lol. Also im gonna try carters Sunday Breakout method.
Mike G
Iām watching the 4h and she (aka GBP) has got me ready to slit my wrists! So Iām covering my backside and setting orders at 1.6435 and 1.6335 with 100 pip SL, I should get something right?
That .6403/15 is major S&R. PA has already dropped below. As soon as this speculator driven USD [Carry Trade] selling ceases GBP will drop like a hot tomatoe 
This PA we are seeing canāt go on indefinitely because Equities, Gold and Oil would shoot to the moon. EU @1.5000 and this will stop really quick.