July about to close, then I’ll do a look-back and update. Seems the last few weeks were better than recently…
I have today (06/08/2020) down as a no trade, 7AM candle too wide.
Update for July Big Ben bracket trades performance (sorry for the delay).
To sum up - not as bad as it had been, not as good as it should have been…
Story of my life perhaps…
Net result was -5r, compared to -4r for June, -10r for May, and before that 5 straight months of significant gains. So the effect on this pair from the locked-down or partly locked-down economies is stark. Way too much indecision in this pair intra-day to run this strategy so I continue to watch and wait before I turn it back on again.
Have a good weekend all.
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I think of it like climbing a pip ladder where each rung gets cashed out, there is no backsliding. It is still something I am pondering and haven’t found clarity in my thoughts yet.
I’m resuming this thread for 2021. 2020 is behind us, and not a moment too soon - nobody needs another year like that in their lives.
I continued to monitor the performance of this strategy right through the year. The effect of the covid pandemic was comprehensive, and it continues to suppress normal activities, travel and trade. However, there is some evidence that forex market behaviour has acclimatised and is less prone to negative shocks caused by related news events. In addition, very relevant for trading this strategy on the GBP/USD, both the UK’s port-Brexit relationship with the EU and the US presidential election are now determined. I expect to resume this strategy from Monday.
To sum up 2020 -
Winning months = 7/12
Days traded = 244
Winning days = 89
Losing days = 119
Av. net gain, winning months = +9.5r
Av. net loss, losing months = -7.4r
Net result 2020 = +30r
Adding in all my data on this strategy, the last 8 months of 2019 plus the 12 of 2020, these are the results so far -
Winning months = 12/20
Days traded = 416
Winning days = 159
Losing days = 197
Av. net gain, winning months = +12.3r
Av. net loss, losing months = -7.7r
Net result = +87r
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I’m resurrecting this thread as the recent lack of long-term trending across the forex markets has driven me back to look at short-term strategies.
I now have 25 consecutive months of data on this strategy.
14/25 months were winners.
Overall the strategy is up +64r.
The average winning month scores +11r.
The average losing month scores -8r.
The worst period for the strategy was May-August 2020. This included the height of the covid pandemic and the widespread adoption of lock-downs, leading to a depression in global trade. This means the net result for the last 12mths has been -30r. You’ll see that I did recommend caution from last May when a lot of trade dried up and stopped trading the strategy in the summer.
I’m getting back into this strategy from the last couple of days now but still recommend caution - small positions, possibly using TP’s etc.
Let’s hope we climb out of this hole soon.
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For you, what’s long-term?
For me, long-term could be pretty much anything longer than a week. Anything less, short-term.
Its based off the daily chart, with some indications from weekly bars and candles.
The key criterion I use is the slope direction of the 50EMA - obviously such a slow MA takes a couple of weeks to reverse from a full-blown trend into its opposite so I’m only ever getting into fairly established trends.
I tihnk that there is no need actually everytime finding new strategies which can somehow ease your trading activity. To my mind the main feature of your strategy must be the effectiveness. If it isn’t effective but it eases your traing activity then I guess it’s not worth it. You should always test your strategy on effectiveness and do everything to increase effectiveness scores, you know. So, it really doesn’t matter which kind of strategy you have whether it’s a bracket trading or not. In my opinion, people who decided to be traders always must concentrate not only on trading activitiy as the process, but on their strategies too.
To a degree yes provided that your risk reward and discipline are on point