Break & Retest Strategy

I wouldn’t really say so, higher TF’s just have a bigger zone to work with.

EURGBP shot up overnight to revisit my original zone. Fortunately, I closed 66% of my position once it got to my entry price. Although price is sitting on support, my eye is still on the weekly chart, so I will let it ride until it closes or until I can add to it.

Other charts I’m watching:

RUSS2000

AU200

JP225Y

USDJPY (I’m in this one)

EURJPY

AUDNZD

Silver

Man I didn’t even think to have the double panes showing. Duh! It’s cool seeing the same pair at different TFs.

I’ve been watching USDJPY too. Do you care about any more BOJ intervention? Or just fundamentals in general? Rate increase for yen. Rate cut for dollar?

I’m mostly TA, I look for my ideal setup and I go in. Sh*t’s gonna happen in this world, you can’t control it. Focus on what you can control so you can come back and trade again tomorrow.

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Last week was a great week for this strategy, hopefully you took advantage of some of the setups I had posted above.

Here are some charts I’m looking at for tomorrow:
WT Oil

AUDJPY

EURND

AUDCHF

Platinum

Copper

Remember, these are just my ideas, nothing is a sure thing. Please do your own analysis before going in.

Happy trading!

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Thanks for sharing these.

On the AUDJPY, would you have been looking to long from here off another retest, or a break of the closest high?

I’m looking at it today on the 1hr, 2 days later from your post, and it looks like another retest of the top blue line. The 4hr shows a retest and move up too.

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Oh and if AUJPY can get above 98.75, might be the start of a move back up into the upward moving channel pre-BOJ rate cut interventions. What do you think?

The key word here is “retest”, this is what creates the zone in the first place. Whether price is retesting an existing zone, or retesting after breaking through a recent high. I’m always looking for the retest.


I see price dipped a bit to revisit another area I didn’t have marked yet, then back up.

Waiting to break out of this current range is probably the safest play.

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Yea I like this a lot. My Achilles’ heel is always guessing what price will do after a big move when it comes up to support or resistance. I just didn’t want to wait for a retest, which would of saved me some pips!

I think that’s a good mantra to have, one to add. “Wait for the retest! retest! retest!”

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Then & Now:

Patience.

Works on channel breakouts too, but I’m not usually looking for those.

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Ah, thanks for pointing out that difference in how you view the charts!

Does a channel retest at a point of horizontal support or resistance look any different to you? Or I guess at that point its just a “normal” retest.

Yes, it would just be a normal retest of the horizontal line, which if you put in perspective, is really just normal PA that happened to touch the line while continuing lower. Sometimes we see what we want to see and this is a good example.

If I was a pattern trader then I might look for these little details, but I’m not and don’t want to over-complicate things. There are more than enough S&R level opportunities to choose from each day.

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Great info. The pictures help to understand how you view the price and setup.

I have a few questions in order to understand more clearly.

In regards the retest concept:

  1. After the price broke resistance level, would you buy AT the retest level? Let’s say the 4h candle is about to be secure in 5 min and it’s in the retest level - that’s where your buy order will be?

  2. I didn’t understand if you would act on the first retest or only a second retest will give you the confirmation to enter

In regards the 2 time-frames:

  1. I’m trying to implement the multi timeframe analysis concept and I didn’t fully get the way you use it. Does the 1W is for seeing the setup and 4H is for entering the trade?

  2. If so, shouldn’t you use the 1D instead the 4H for the entry?

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Hi @Camus1612, I’m finding this more difficult to answer than I anticipated, but here goes…

Everyone has their own style of trading and TF preferences. I am more partial to the 1H charts now because it seems to suit me better as a swing trader. I like to use a combination of SR, trend and the 20MA as confirmation to enter a trade.

Here’s an example of my perfect setup where everything was aligned on the 1H chart: downtrend, multiple retests of both S&R and price below the 20MA:


I have also marked out S/R levels above and below. They’re not as obvious but to me they count as strong areas, confirming the start or continuation of the trend.

This all depends on how aggressive you want to be and when you spot it. For me personally, the more retests the stronger the signal. But there is also a better chance of missing the move. However, I’d rather miss the move than get in too soon and get stopped out. This is why patience is so important, when I spot a setup like this then I’m more confident with the entry.

I use the weekly chart just to get the bigger picture. It doesn’t always help but it does often show the long-term trend direction and/or price behavior. I look for confluence wherever I can find it.

Again, this is a matter of preference. Everyone sees charts differently depending on the strategy and their trading experience.

I hope this helped. Good luck!

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This was really helpful.
I like your charts, clean and on point.
High value thread, will sure ask more questions :slight_smile:

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Agreed, the images really help. And the thing I’ve learned is that you need to find what you’re comfortable with. Like, do I need 2 retests or 3 retests or 4 retests to enter? Do I need price at some level in relation to the X MA. Or EMA or SMA? Do I need trend direction the same on weekly, D1, 4 hr and 1hr? Maybe just 4hr and 1hr and I enter on 15min, or 5 min.

That’s the stuff you need to try on your own, because what works for me might not work for you.

Great thread @MattyMoney!

I’ve entered early so many times it’s not funny. Not enough confluence. Or expecting price to do something instead of waiting and actually seeing it.

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Exactly right. B&R is not really a strategy on its own, but it’s a solid foundation to build on. And the beauty is it can work on any time frame, you’re just riding the trend and buying the pullback. You just need to test it and tweak it to suit you. I’m more comfortable using 1H and up, but who knows, some day I might try testing it on lower TF’s.

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Russ 2000 - I’d like to see another retest at support, this looks a bit too good:

Oil:

GOLD:

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