i find him pretty entertaining and listen to him just for that reason
it’s very, very, very hard to see how the currently offered deal can get through parliament
one of two things is going on, in my view
either May is simply determined to see the thing through and do everything she can, even knowing that this is incredibly unlikely to get through parliament, and will resign the same day when it fails, at least feeling she’s done everything she possibly could and hoping for another prime minister to be “crowned” as quickly as she was a couple of years ago, with no real leadership election and no general election, and that another PM, maybe with an extension of the Section 50 procedure (to which the EU leaders would certainly agree, and with great relief), might be more successful - this wouldn’t amaze me
or she has an undisclosed potential last trick up her sleeve, possibly in the form of a different deal, which would be an even more remain-leaning one, which she hopes can be put to parliament as early as January and which might get through with plenty of Labour support - that wouldn’t amaze me, either, partly because there’s still no love lost between the majority of Labour MPs and their own party leadership, and this, therefore, perhaps wouldn’t be an unreasonable trick for May to try as a last resort
Keep 'em coming, mates. I don’t trust any media here, either, that’s why I asked.
You say it’s highly unlikely to get through Parliament? Is that because it’s too strict
or not strict enough? Or, both, probably!
As an uninformed Yank, my reaction to above is Tories are in control so not strict enough?
Everyone hates the current deal but May must be hoping to get this through Parliament because she hopes not enough MP’s want to risk an election, while her own party don’t want to mount a leadership challenge (the PM is elected by the party in power, not the voters).
To be fair, a replacement leader would need to promise either a better deal which seems unlikely to be available or a no-deal Brexit, which seems incredibly risky.
There’s more to lose by opposing - the prize for winning would be leadership of a failing economy (at least in the short term).
“May” was (Is ?) a “Remainer” and only got the job because of Michael Gove doublecrossing Boris Johnson at the last and most destructive minute. She was a poor Home Secretary who presided over some of the Scandals like the West Indian “Immigrants” being Deported because they didn’t have the “Paperwork” Her own new rules made it compulsory they have ! These people have been living here as full “British” for 50 years !
She herself ordered the destruction of the Papers proving their entitlement when sh was home secretary ! With Foresight like that one can only despair of what she’s stitching us up with this time
Amber Rudd had to “take the flack” and resigned as Home Secretary - rather than admit May was Home Sec when the papers “Got destroyed” 2010 And Also when the LAw was changed to make them “Illegal” 2012
She has “negotiated” us an “Exit - DEAL” despite TWO consecutively of her appointed “Brexit Secretaries” resigning (Davis and his successor Raab ) In protest at her capitulation - Despite Boris Johnson resigning at her “Chequers proposal” and teh list is endless. She no longer has anyone of integrity in her Cabinet. One of the TWO MP’s who expressed pubicly “Support” for her plan was the aforementioned Michael Gove !
My own view is that the Country is as much at risk under Her, as it was in that documentary I lnked to in that other thread - Note also the dire straits of Italy, who were hung out to dry by the same Bank and the fact that the EU are threatening the Italian Govt with “Fines” of 0.2% of GDP if they don’t “Follow Instructions” to the clear detriment of their own people !
[Edit to link to the “other thread” - documentary is on post 1
A large part of teh problem is that “THEY” NEED to “Punish Britain” ! for even considering leaving as there are many other countries with similar pressures from within !
This guy is not brilliant, but he’s not bad at explaining in short vids (about 10 mins)
If you want the full “Gen” on Why we need to get out with as much alacrity as possible - Here’s the definitive examination ! (THIS Guy IS Brilliant ! - but it will take more than 10 minutes ! )
This is just fascinating to me. It’s HUGE with worldwide implications and, honestly, have seen very little on American TV or in print. If I wasn’t a currency trader, I may have been as agnostic as the rest.
That link you originally gave me to the video tying your interest rates to Germany(err…GERMANY!) should make all of you think…
Is there a fairly clear distinction between Labour and Conservative on this? I mean, in general, at least the general Brexit question. Sure it gets more squishy with the details.
I’m curious, do you really think it has worldwide implications? Or do you think that 12 months after it being a done deal that the dust will settle and people will be wondering what all the noise was actually about? As it currently stands most people in the UK think Brexit is some sort of new breakfast cereal.
I totally get that it will affect EU exporting / importing businesses with potential costs and limitations - but apart from that, in my view, the damage has already been done to the UK and more specifically England. There’s little point in trying to stem the bleeding when we are already hemorrhaging our culture and what made England great?
I have absolutely no intention to stay in the UK after the next five years, not to mention the rubbish weather, but I guess that’s the least of peoples worries now. So yea, you can figure which side of the fence I sit on
Yes it is - and a little published fact is that “the EU and a united currency” contolled by (you know who) was actually the brainchild of one Walther Funk
Not really - The voters in the Referendum generally came from all classes of voters, but Most MPs in BOTH parties seem to be “Remain” orientated (ie they are NOT representative) There are More outspoken “Leavers” among the Conservatives MPS than the LAbour ones - But Corbyn (Labour Leader) himself has been criticised by the “Remainers” (who tend to be more vocal and “PC” anyway) in hs own party. There is a suspicion that he is a “Closet Leaver” ! He may well be.
That’s how I see it too - but most people either don’t have the brains or else the attention span, to foresee where the attitude of the Bundesbank would lead, when weaker economies are irreparably tied to dominant stronger ones without empathy ! - Even though we have seen the very life-blood being sucked out of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal !
Yeah, but Germany? Your friends from WWII? You blokes have short memories.
'Course, we do business with Vietnam but boycott Cuba, so I’m not one to point things out.
definitely - but most of them are probably really long-term implcations, and outside short-term attention spans
no - it divides both parties equally
this is oversimplifying, but in broad and general terms, the Conservative right and the Labour left (ie both extremes) are pro-Brexit and the more central people in each party anti-Brexit
the Labour situation is really complicated and must be pretty difficult for those in other countries to understand!!
most Labour MPs are fairly strongly anti-Brexit, a (slight) majority of Labour voters are pro-Brexit, and the party leadership (Corbyn, McDonnell and their little coterie) have been passionately, fervently, actively and outspokenly Eurosceptic and pro-Brexit all their political lives but actually pretended to be anti-Brexit at the time of the referendum and even pretended (albeit very, very half-heartedly and with very little effect) to campaign against Brexit in the 2016 referendum
There’s money to made, but there is money to be lost.
If you are trading cable then just a suggestion - watch Eur/Gbp for a sense of market sentiment.
The 10th minister leaving will not likely rock things, you could even see GBP buying on cable Mon/Tue and possibly Wed, then it’s the first Friday calm.
I’ve monitoring that actually funny thing you mentioned it. I also trade EUR/USD with cable so I’m thinking of getting a possible double short on these guys. Not sure yet I’ve always been a punk when it comes to taking risk so knowing me I’ll wait until the last second to make an informed decision. The more knowledge I have going in the less risky the trade seems to me.
Perhaps the wisest words that I’ve seen in a long time.
The thing with going double is your risk is equally so - often on knee jerks, especially on NFP both cable and fibre will follow the same path and you could find stops getting hit around the same time.
Most likely during the most liquid time at market opening time US and just when UK are winding down for the weekend - more automated then.
despite TWO consecutively of her appointed “Brexit Secretaries” resigning (Davis and his successor Raab ) In protest at her capitulation - Despite Boris Johnson resigning at her “Chequers proposal” and teh list is endless. She no longer has anyone of integrity in her Cabinet. One of the TWO MP’s who expressed pubicly “Support” for her plan was the aforementioned Michael Gove !
